Italy Serie A Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Games for February 26, 2021

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		GoalsTotal
Goals		Best
O/U

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

More on Bet Value
More Details
PostponedSassuolo
Torino 		43.8%
32.2%		24.0%
+116
+248
+125
+240
1.69
1.23		2.92
o2½-128
u2½+108
o2½-120
u2½+105
Games for Feb 25, 2021
Games for Mar 15, 2026

Games In Progress

TimeTeamsOrig.
Win %		Orig.
Draw %		Closing
ML		Orig. Total
Goals		Closing
O/U		PeriodCurrent
Score
Juventus
Udinese 		69.8%
11.4%		18.8%
-183
+580
-190
+555
2.84
o2½-115
u2½+103
o2½-115
u2½-105
2nd H
67:00		1
0

Completed Games

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		Final
Goals		Sportsbook
Log Loss		DRatings
Log Loss
Genoa
Cagliari		33.5%
40.1%		26.4%
+195
+180
+190
+170
1
2		-1.03820-1.02057-0.91320
Udinese
Milan		12.5%
68.6%		18.9%
+725
-220
+685
-235
1
0		-2.13369-2.10570-2.07976
Inter
Atalanta		38.3%
36.3%		25.4%
+120
+263
+110
+255
2
1		-0.80011-0.78858-0.95988
Napoli
Salernitana		80.9%
6.4%		12.7%
-230
+730
-265
+700
2
0		-0.36713-0.36993-0.21222
Lazio
Bologna		64.0%
16.4%		19.6%
+188
+178
+185
+172
0
1		-1.04364-1.03598-1.80850
Fiorentina
Lazio		18.3%
59.7%		21.9%
+223
+135
+225
+125
0
1		-0.88075-0.85781-0.51565
Milan
Napoli		34.6%
37.9%		27.4%
+240
+126
+230
+125
2
2		-1.26447-1.26450-1.29310
Roma
Inter		21.7%
56.4%		21.8%
+578
-155
+510
-170
0
1		-0.48955-0.49489-0.57208
Hellas Verona
Juventus		9.5%
73.7%		16.8%
+825
-258
+830
-275
0
1		-0.35518-0.35021-0.30557
Bologna
Sassuolo		23.6%
54.2%		22.2%
+181
+169
+162
+166
1
1		-1.27011-1.28475-1.50287
Salernitana
Genoa		14.9%
65.4%		19.6%
+400
-121
+430
-140
0
1		-0.61646-0.58254-0.42430
Juventus
Milan		43.1%
30.3%		26.6%
+282
+118
+270
+115
1
0		-1.36082-1.34780-0.84200
Genoa
Atalanta		8.7%
78.0%		13.2%
+597
-190
+600
-195
0
2		-0.44845-0.45784-0.24794
Cagliari
Salernitana		56.0%
20.9%		23.1%
+235
+145
+225
+135
2
2		-1.20571-1.20344-1.46746
Lazio
Sassuolo		52.6%
24.4%		23.0%
+155
+186
+150
+170
2
0		-0.95547-0.96703-0.64276
Inter
Torino		75.6%
9.6%		14.8%
-138
+462
-140
+425
3
0		-0.56574-0.57868-0.27924
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Season Prediction Results

 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks10-0-1 (0.500)0-1.54952 
Sportsbooks10-0-1 (0.500)0-1.54853 
DRatings10-0-1 (0.500)0-1.43889
0.11063
0.10964

Season Simulation

*Through all games played on or before 06/08/20
#TeamWLTPtsWinChamps LeagueEuropa LeagueRelegation
1Juventus (20-3-3, 63 pts)26.05.86.284.155.9%100.0%0.0%0.0%
2Lazio (19-2-5, 62 pts)24.75.08.382.440.1%100.0%0.0%0.0%
3Inter (16-3-6, 54 pts)22.06.49.675.74.0%97.5%2.5%0.0%
4Atalanta (14-5-6, 48 pts)19.58.89.768.20.0%80.7%18.1%0.0%
5Roma (13-7-6, 45 pts)17.810.89.462.70.0%18.4%74.2%0.0%
6Napoli (11-9-6, 39 pts)15.612.99.556.30.0%1.9%46.3%0.0%
7Milan (10-10-6, 36 pts)14.214.49.452.10.0%0.3%10.3%0.0%
8Hellas Verona (9-8-8, 35 pts)13.412.811.752.10.0%0.7%12.8%0.1%
10Bologna (9-10-7, 34 pts)12.615.010.448.20.0%0.0%2.8%0.8%
11Sassuolo (9-11-5, 32 pts)13.116.28.748.00.0%0.0%4.1%0.6%
12Cagliari (8-9-8, 32 pts)12.813.611.750.00.0%0.0%7.7%0.5%
13Fiorentina (7-10-9, 30 pts)11.514.012.547.10.0%0.0%1.3%1.0%
14Udinese (7-12-7, 28 pts)11.016.610.543.40.0%0.0%0.0%8.7%
15Torino (8-14-3, 27 pts)11.919.46.742.30.0%0.0%0.1%15.3%
16Sampdoria (7-13-5, 26 pts)11.118.18.842.20.0%0.0%0.2%15.2%
17Genoa (6-13-7, 25 pts)9.817.810.439.70.0%0.0%0.0%31.4%

Predictions Methodology

Italy’s Serie A features twenty teams that play a home-and-home series with the other nineteen teams in the league for a total of 38 rounds of football. Currently, the top two teams that finish in the Serie A standings qualify for the Champions League Group Stage. The third place team makes Champions League Qualifying and fourth and fifth place teams earn berths to the Europa League. The teams that place in the bottom three of the table are relegated to Italy’s Serie B.