Italy Serie A Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Games for February 26, 2021

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		GoalsTotal
Goals		Best
O/U

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

More on Bet Value
More Details
PostponedSassuolo
Torino 		43.8%
32.2%		24.0%
+116
+248
+125
+240
1.69
1.23		2.92
o2½-128
u2½+108
o2½-120
u2½+105
Games for Feb 25, 2021
Games for Nov 23, 2024

Completed Games

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		Final
Goals		Sportsbook
Log Loss		DRatings
Log Loss
Juventus
Sassuolo		66.5%
14.6%		18.9%
-125
+360
-125
+310
2
1		-0.60450-0.63605-0.40851
Milan
Lazio		35.6%
37.6%		26.8%
+139
+220
+135
+210
2
1		-0.88778-0.90429-1.03193
Cagliari
Genoa		32.2%
41.9%		25.9%
+310
+111
+290
+110
0
1		-0.76733-0.79078-0.86910
Udinese
Bologna		36.0%
36.1%		27.9%
+125
+254
+155
+190
2
2		-1.24251-1.21147-1.27676
Fiorentina
Salernitana		67.4%
13.2%		19.4%
-115
+367
-155
+440
1
2		-1.56027-1.73778-2.02723
Sampdoria
Hellas Verona		28.0%
46.0%		26.0%
+475
-144
+425
-150
1
1		-1.40027-1.39707-1.34542
Roma
Inter		21.7%
56.4%		21.8%
+452
-153
+440
-160
1
3		-0.52667-0.53485-0.57208
Spezia
Torino		29.3%
45.5%		25.3%
+525
-151
+470
-150
1
2		-0.52474-0.56268-0.78827
Salernitana
Udinese		12.6%
67.8%		19.5%
+460
-147
+440
-150
1
0		-1.74681-1.72098-2.06965
Hellas Verona
Atalanta		12.5%
70.4%		17.1%
+449
-151
+410
-155
2
1		-1.72563-1.67879-2.08136
Roma
Napoli		30.8%
43.7%		25.4%
+292
+106
+275
+100
1
1		-1.29503-1.30383-1.36928
Torino
Lazio		11.0%
73.0%		16.0%
+501
-155
+450
-160
1
1		-1.41399-1.41321-1.83327
Bologna
Juventus		6.8%
80.5%		12.6%
+875
-275
+895
-305
1
1		-1.72082-1.66163-2.06838
Salernitana
Sampdoria		13.2%
68.3%		18.5%
+393
-119
+360
-125
2
1		-1.61169-1.57557-2.02617
Sassuolo
Cagliari		45.9%
29.6%		24.6%
+178
+162
+145
+175
0
1		-0.98369-1.06369-1.21909
Genoa
Milan		10.2%
74.2%		15.6%
+870
-258
+850
-280
0
2		-0.34990-0.35458-0.29849
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Season Prediction Results

 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks00-0-0 (0.000)0 
Sportsbooks00-0-0 (0.000)0 
DRatings00-0-0 (0.000)0

Season Simulation

*Through all games played on or before 06/08/20
#TeamWLTPtsWinChamps LeagueEuropa LeagueRelegation
1Juventus (20-3-3, 63 pts)26.05.86.284.155.9%100.0%0.0%0.0%
2Lazio (19-2-5, 62 pts)24.75.08.382.440.1%100.0%0.0%0.0%
3Inter (16-3-6, 54 pts)22.06.49.675.74.0%97.5%2.5%0.0%
4Atalanta (14-5-6, 48 pts)19.58.89.768.20.0%80.7%18.1%0.0%
5Roma (13-7-6, 45 pts)17.810.89.462.70.0%18.4%74.2%0.0%
6Napoli (11-9-6, 39 pts)15.612.99.556.30.0%1.9%46.3%0.0%
7Milan (10-10-6, 36 pts)14.214.49.452.10.0%0.3%10.3%0.0%
8Hellas Verona (9-8-8, 35 pts)13.412.811.752.10.0%0.7%12.8%0.1%
10Bologna (9-10-7, 34 pts)12.615.010.448.20.0%0.0%2.8%0.8%
11Sassuolo (9-11-5, 32 pts)13.116.28.748.00.0%0.0%4.1%0.6%
12Cagliari (8-9-8, 32 pts)12.813.611.750.00.0%0.0%7.7%0.5%
13Fiorentina (7-10-9, 30 pts)11.514.012.547.10.0%0.0%1.3%1.0%
14Udinese (7-12-7, 28 pts)11.016.610.543.40.0%0.0%0.0%8.7%
15Torino (8-14-3, 27 pts)11.919.46.742.30.0%0.0%0.1%15.3%
16Sampdoria (7-13-5, 26 pts)11.118.18.842.20.0%0.0%0.2%15.2%
17Genoa (6-13-7, 25 pts)9.817.810.439.70.0%0.0%0.0%31.4%

Predictions Methodology

Italy’s Serie A features twenty teams that play a home-and-home series with the other nineteen teams in the league for a total of 38 rounds of football. Currently, the top two teams that finish in the Serie A standings qualify for the Champions League Group Stage. The third place team makes Champions League Qualifying and fourth and fifth place teams earn berths to the Europa League. The teams that place in the bottom three of the table are relegated to Italy’s Serie B.