Italy Serie A Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Games for February 26, 2021

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		GoalsTotal
Goals		Best
O/U

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

More on Bet Value
More Details
PostponedSassuolo
Torino 		43.8%
32.2%		24.0%
+116
+248
+125
+240
1.69
1.23		2.92
o2½-128
u2½+108
o2½-120
u2½+105
Games for Feb 25, 2021
Games for Mar 15, 2026

Completed Games

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		Final
Goals		Sportsbook
Log Loss		DRatings
Log Loss
Udinese
Salernitana		60.1%
17.2%		22.6%
+165
+194
+145
+190
2
3		-1.09428-1.11492-1.75985
Sassuolo
Sampdoria		41.4%
33.2%		25.4%
-115
+316
-115
+280
2
2		-1.42068-1.42366-1.36999
Salernitana
Roma		4.9%
85.2%		9.9%
+595
-179
+625
-195
2
2		-1.44923-1.42454-2.31152
Lazio
Udinese		57.9%
19.2%		23.0%
+105
+311
-105
+295
1
0		-0.72441-0.71885-0.54725
Inter
Napoli		43.4%
30.3%		26.3%
+295
+101
+260
+105
1
3		-0.71885-0.76787-1.19359
Fiorentina
Torino		45.8%
28.5%		25.7%
+290
+118
+285
+105
1
1		-1.20765-1.24327-1.35786
Sampdoria
Milan		11.6%
71.4%		16.9%
+2200
-725
+1750
-700
1
5		-0.14838-0.18617-0.33630
Hellas Verona
Atalanta		12.5%
70.4%		17.1%
+640
-211
+615
-215
1
3		-0.41264-0.42324-0.35055
Roma
Bologna		63.2%
17.4%		19.4%
+209
+161
+195
+165
0
0		-1.18006-1.14709-1.63928
Udinese
Fiorentina		26.1%
46.9%		27.0%
+372
-117
+310
-115
0
2		-0.63181-0.67712-0.75803
Torino
Hellas Verona		24.3%
51.2%		24.4%
+212
+166
+205
+155
1
0		-1.15671-1.16194-1.41375
Sassuolo
Inter		11.4%
72.5%		16.0%
+583
-205
+585
-235
2
4		-0.41968-0.40287-0.32107
Milan
Spezia		71.2%
11.6%		17.2%
-112
+374
-120
+345
0
2		-1.57600-1.54346-2.15580
Atalanta
Salernitana		85.6%
4.9%		9.5%
-139
+400
-165
+435
0
1		-1.62893-1.72637-3.02023
Fiorentina
Napoli		17.9%
59.6%		22.5%
+355
-118
+350
-125
0
1		-0.63507-0.63471-0.51673
Juventus
Atalanta		40.4%
33.8%		25.8%
+216
+142
+200
+140
2
0		-1.16993-1.15031-0.90691
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Season Prediction Results

 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks21-0-1 (0.750)0-1.00704 
Sportsbooks21-0-1 (0.750)0-1.00816 
DRatings21-0-1 (0.750)0-0.89950
0.10754
0.10866

Season Simulation

*Through all games played on or before 06/08/20
#TeamWLTPtsWinChamps LeagueEuropa LeagueRelegation
1Juventus (20-3-3, 63 pts)26.05.86.284.155.9%100.0%0.0%0.0%
2Lazio (19-2-5, 62 pts)24.75.08.382.440.1%100.0%0.0%0.0%
3Inter (16-3-6, 54 pts)22.06.49.675.74.0%97.5%2.5%0.0%
4Atalanta (14-5-6, 48 pts)19.58.89.768.20.0%80.7%18.1%0.0%
5Roma (13-7-6, 45 pts)17.810.89.462.70.0%18.4%74.2%0.0%
6Napoli (11-9-6, 39 pts)15.612.99.556.30.0%1.9%46.3%0.0%
7Milan (10-10-6, 36 pts)14.214.49.452.10.0%0.3%10.3%0.0%
8Hellas Verona (9-8-8, 35 pts)13.412.811.752.10.0%0.7%12.8%0.1%
10Bologna (9-10-7, 34 pts)12.615.010.448.20.0%0.0%2.8%0.8%
11Sassuolo (9-11-5, 32 pts)13.116.28.748.00.0%0.0%4.1%0.6%
12Cagliari (8-9-8, 32 pts)12.813.611.750.00.0%0.0%7.7%0.5%
13Fiorentina (7-10-9, 30 pts)11.514.012.547.10.0%0.0%1.3%1.0%
14Udinese (7-12-7, 28 pts)11.016.610.543.40.0%0.0%0.0%8.7%
15Torino (8-14-3, 27 pts)11.919.46.742.30.0%0.0%0.1%15.3%
16Sampdoria (7-13-5, 26 pts)11.118.18.842.20.0%0.0%0.2%15.2%
17Genoa (6-13-7, 25 pts)9.817.810.439.70.0%0.0%0.0%31.4%

Predictions Methodology

Italy’s Serie A features twenty teams that play a home-and-home series with the other nineteen teams in the league for a total of 38 rounds of football. Currently, the top two teams that finish in the Serie A standings qualify for the Champions League Group Stage. The third place team makes Champions League Qualifying and fourth and fifth place teams earn berths to the Europa League. The teams that place in the bottom three of the table are relegated to Italy’s Serie B.