Italy Serie A Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Games for February 26, 2021

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		GoalsTotal
Goals		Best
O/U

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

More on Bet Value
More Details
PostponedSassuolo
Torino 		43.8%
32.2%		24.0%
+116
+248
+125
+240
1.69
1.23		2.92
o2½-128
u2½+108
o2½-120
u2½+105
Games for Feb 25, 2021
Games for Nov 23, 2024

Completed Games

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		Final
Goals		Sportsbook
Log Loss		DRatings
Log Loss
Sassuolo
Fiorentina		34.8%
40.9%		24.3%
+315
-115
+285
-110
2
2		-1.39271-1.37074-1.41395
Udinese
Cagliari		38.0%
36.2%		25.8%
+140
+215
+130
+220
4
0		-0.91018-0.88201-0.96864
Juventus
Bologna		67.6%
16.6%		15.8%
-105
+330
-110
+320
2
0		-0.69437-0.69709-0.39147
Roma
Atalanta		30.9%
48.0%		21.2%
+380
-135
+360
-140
4
1		-1.59499-1.57552-1.17545
Inter
Salernitana		79.9%
9.1%		11.0%
-550
+2315
-700
+1600
5
0		-0.15557-0.18372-0.22449
Genoa
Lazio		19.0%
64.2%		16.7%
+525
-155
+500
-160
1
3		-0.49294-0.53652-0.44240
Spezia
Roma		17.5%
67.5%		15.1%
+775
-260
+750
-275
0
2		-0.34858-0.35988-0.39372
Cagliari
Inter		13.8%
72.9%		13.3%
+1931
-625
+1850
-700
0
4		-0.17696-0.18354-0.31614
Lazio
Sassuolo		48.7%
29.4%		22.0%
+205
+135
+200
+135
1
2		-0.88892-0.90199-1.22509
Atalanta
Hellas Verona		56.2%
24.1%		19.7%
+108
+250
+105
+250
2
1		-0.76845-0.76787-0.57568
Bologna
Torino		36.5%
39.7%		23.7%
+275
+113
+245
+125
1
2		-0.79021-0.86140-0.92274
Milan
Udinese		55.1%
23.2%		21.7%
-110
+340
-120
+350
1
1		-1.34915-1.31513-1.52813
Salernitana
Fiorentina		16.2%
66.7%		17.1%
+1175
-350
+1100
-350
0
4		-0.26490-0.27604-0.40537
Sampdoria
Genoa		37.2%
38.4%		24.4%
+140
+265
+125
+240
3
1		-0.88353-0.86074-0.98943
Torino
Cagliari		34.8%
41.2%		23.9%
+140
+225
+140
+225
1
1		-1.21019-1.16607-1.42929
Genoa
Juventus		13.1%
73.1%		13.8%
+1737
-450
+1500
-500
0
2		-0.22123-0.23081-0.31316
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Season Prediction Results

 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks00-0-0 (0.000)0 
Sportsbooks00-0-0 (0.000)0 
DRatings00-0-0 (0.000)0

Season Simulation

*Through all games played on or before 06/08/20
#TeamWLTPtsWinChamps LeagueEuropa LeagueRelegation
1Juventus (20-3-3, 63 pts)26.05.86.284.155.9%100.0%0.0%0.0%
2Lazio (19-2-5, 62 pts)24.75.08.382.440.1%100.0%0.0%0.0%
3Inter (16-3-6, 54 pts)22.06.49.675.74.0%97.5%2.5%0.0%
4Atalanta (14-5-6, 48 pts)19.58.89.768.20.0%80.7%18.1%0.0%
5Roma (13-7-6, 45 pts)17.810.89.462.70.0%18.4%74.2%0.0%
6Napoli (11-9-6, 39 pts)15.612.99.556.30.0%1.9%46.3%0.0%
7Milan (10-10-6, 36 pts)14.214.49.452.10.0%0.3%10.3%0.0%
8Hellas Verona (9-8-8, 35 pts)13.412.811.752.10.0%0.7%12.8%0.1%
10Bologna (9-10-7, 34 pts)12.615.010.448.20.0%0.0%2.8%0.8%
11Sassuolo (9-11-5, 32 pts)13.116.28.748.00.0%0.0%4.1%0.6%
12Cagliari (8-9-8, 32 pts)12.813.611.750.00.0%0.0%7.7%0.5%
13Fiorentina (7-10-9, 30 pts)11.514.012.547.10.0%0.0%1.3%1.0%
14Udinese (7-12-7, 28 pts)11.016.610.543.40.0%0.0%0.0%8.7%
15Torino (8-14-3, 27 pts)11.919.46.742.30.0%0.0%0.1%15.3%
16Sampdoria (7-13-5, 26 pts)11.118.18.842.20.0%0.0%0.2%15.2%
17Genoa (6-13-7, 25 pts)9.817.810.439.70.0%0.0%0.0%31.4%

Predictions Methodology

Italy’s Serie A features twenty teams that play a home-and-home series with the other nineteen teams in the league for a total of 38 rounds of football. Currently, the top two teams that finish in the Serie A standings qualify for the Champions League Group Stage. The third place team makes Champions League Qualifying and fourth and fifth place teams earn berths to the Europa League. The teams that place in the bottom three of the table are relegated to Italy’s Serie B.