Italy Serie A Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Games for February 26, 2021

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		GoalsTotal
Goals		Best
O/U

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

More on Bet Value
More Details
PostponedSassuolo
Torino 		43.8%
32.2%		24.0%
+116
+248
+125
+240
1.69
1.23		2.92
o2½-128
u2½+108
o2½-120
u2½+105
Games for Feb 25, 2021
Games for Mar 15, 2026

Games In Progress

TimeTeamsOrig.
Win %		Orig.
Draw %		Closing
ML		Orig. Total
Goals		Closing
O/U		PeriodCurrent
Score
Genoa
Hellas Verona 		25.3%
49.5%		25.2%
+144
+245
+142
+235
2.63
o1¾-125
u2-125
o2+110
u2-120
TIME
HALF		0
0

Completed Games

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		Final
Goals		Sportsbook
Log Loss		DRatings
Log Loss
Bologna
Fiorentina		23.2%
53.1%		23.7%
+365
-121
+355
-120
2
1		-1.55893-1.56480-1.46240
Udinese
Torino		37.8%
34.4%		27.7%
+228
+152
+215
+145
0
1		-0.94323-0.94819-1.06650
Napoli
Spezia		68.7%
12.8%		18.5%
-260
+871
-270
+740
3
0		-0.35032-0.36660-0.37599
Atalanta
Sassuolo		61.0%
19.3%		19.7%
-105
+297
-110
+280
0
1		-1.39776-1.38390-1.64356
Hellas Verona
Udinese		34.8%
35.5%		29.7%
+366
-107
+340
-115
1
1		-1.26983-1.28906-1.21318
Roma
Napoli		30.8%
43.7%		25.4%
+415
-125
+400
-130
1
2		-0.60974-0.61639-0.82746
Fiorentina
Lazio		18.3%
59.7%		21.9%
+313
+106
+300
+100
1
1		-1.25562-1.25632-1.51718
Sassuolo
Milan		16.0%
64.8%		19.2%
+608
-205
+565
-220
5
2		-1.97458-1.94400-1.83208
Sampdoria
Atalanta		10.0%
75.7%		14.3%
+1010
-303
+840
-300
0
2		-0.30710-0.33700-0.27851
Spezia
Bologna		27.7%
47.5%		24.8%
+374
-109
+360
-115
0
2		-0.67229-0.67525-0.74396
Milan
Lazio		35.6%
37.6%		26.8%
+162
+183
+160
+180
0
4		-1.07327-1.07790-0.97891
Atalanta
Juventus		26.4%
49.7%		23.9%
+275
+120
+240
+120
3
3		-1.23898-1.24434-1.43037
Roma
Spezia		68.2%
13.9%		18.0%
-121
+448
-130
+435
2
0		-0.61795-0.61576-0.38333
Udinese
Sampdoria		33.5%
38.6%		27.9%
+135
+239
+125
+240
1
0		-0.87328-0.85616-1.09446
Torino
Fiorentina		21.7%
55.0%		23.3%
+386
-111
+340
-110
1
0		-1.59845-1.53003-1.52583
Napoli
Salernitana		80.9%
6.4%		12.7%
-273
+840
-325
+830
2
0		-0.32422-0.31631-0.21222
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Season Prediction Results

 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks21-0-1 (0.750)0-1.00704 
Sportsbooks21-0-1 (0.750)0-1.00816 
DRatings21-0-1 (0.750)0-0.89950
0.10754
0.10866

Season Simulation

*Through all games played on or before 06/08/20
#TeamWLTPtsWinChamps LeagueEuropa LeagueRelegation
1Juventus (20-3-3, 63 pts)26.05.86.284.155.9%100.0%0.0%0.0%
2Lazio (19-2-5, 62 pts)24.75.08.382.440.1%100.0%0.0%0.0%
3Inter (16-3-6, 54 pts)22.06.49.675.74.0%97.5%2.5%0.0%
4Atalanta (14-5-6, 48 pts)19.58.89.768.20.0%80.7%18.1%0.0%
5Roma (13-7-6, 45 pts)17.810.89.462.70.0%18.4%74.2%0.0%
6Napoli (11-9-6, 39 pts)15.612.99.556.30.0%1.9%46.3%0.0%
7Milan (10-10-6, 36 pts)14.214.49.452.10.0%0.3%10.3%0.0%
8Hellas Verona (9-8-8, 35 pts)13.412.811.752.10.0%0.7%12.8%0.1%
10Bologna (9-10-7, 34 pts)12.615.010.448.20.0%0.0%2.8%0.8%
11Sassuolo (9-11-5, 32 pts)13.116.28.748.00.0%0.0%4.1%0.6%
12Cagliari (8-9-8, 32 pts)12.813.611.750.00.0%0.0%7.7%0.5%
13Fiorentina (7-10-9, 30 pts)11.514.012.547.10.0%0.0%1.3%1.0%
14Udinese (7-12-7, 28 pts)11.016.610.543.40.0%0.0%0.0%8.7%
15Torino (8-14-3, 27 pts)11.919.46.742.30.0%0.0%0.1%15.3%
16Sampdoria (7-13-5, 26 pts)11.118.18.842.20.0%0.0%0.2%15.2%
17Genoa (6-13-7, 25 pts)9.817.810.439.70.0%0.0%0.0%31.4%

Predictions Methodology

Italy’s Serie A features twenty teams that play a home-and-home series with the other nineteen teams in the league for a total of 38 rounds of football. Currently, the top two teams that finish in the Serie A standings qualify for the Champions League Group Stage. The third place team makes Champions League Qualifying and fourth and fifth place teams earn berths to the Europa League. The teams that place in the bottom three of the table are relegated to Italy’s Serie B.