Italy Serie A Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Games for February 26, 2021

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		GoalsTotal
Goals		Best
O/U

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

More on Bet Value
More Details
PostponedSassuolo
Torino 		43.8%
32.2%		24.0%
+116
+248
+125
+240
1.69
1.23		2.92
o2½-128
u2½+108
o2½-120
u2½+105
Games for Feb 25, 2021
Games for Nov 9, 2025

Completed Games

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		Final
Goals		Sportsbook
Log Loss		DRatings
Log Loss
Sassuolo
Bologna		44.7%
30.9%		24.5%
+179
+145
+170
+140
3
1		-1.04877-1.04557-0.80614
Torino
Hellas Verona		24.3%
51.2%		24.4%
+310
+104
+300
+100
1
0		-1.43062-1.43368-1.41375
Spezia
Udinese		24.0%
50.5%		25.6%
+465
-144
+410
-150
3
2		-1.73409-1.68040-1.42920
Roma
Fiorentina		49.8%
25.9%		24.3%
+178
+178
+175
+175
0
2		-1.04024-1.05059-1.35089
Milan
Hellas Verona		57.6%
19.6%		22.8%
-145
+436
-150
+400
3
1		-0.54485-0.55961-0.55224
Cagliari
Salernitana		56.0%
20.9%		23.1%
+237
+150
+220
+145
1
1		-1.15056-1.19577-1.46746
Atalanta
Spezia		75.5%
9.9%		14.6%
-209
+590
-225
+575
3
1		-0.41406-0.41746-0.28087
Sampdoria
Lazio		13.2%
68.9%		17.9%
+620
-208
+625
-235
0
2		-0.41486-0.40329-0.37296
Udinese
Sassuolo		26.8%
48.1%		25.2%
+185
+150
+175
+140
1
1		-1.34113-1.35767-1.38015
Napoli
Torino		65.8%
14.9%		19.3%
+117
+252
+100
+250
1
0		-0.79567-0.74421-0.41898
Juventus
Genoa		75.1%
9.3%		15.5%
+121
+284
+115
+280
1
2		-1.35247-1.37034-2.37086
Salernitana
Atalanta		3.6%
88.5%		7.8%
+975
-339
+850
-350
1
1		-1.88282-1.84030-2.54785
Bologna
Roma		12.4%
71.2%		16.4%
+640
-189
+600
-205
0
0		-1.52056-1.50508-1.80941
Inter
Udinese		68.8%
12.4%		18.8%
-202
+600
-220
+570
2
1		-0.42035-0.42520-0.37381
Fiorentina
Milan		16.3%
62.7%		21.0%
+500
-156
+480
-160
0
1		-0.50124-0.53520-0.46662
Lazio
Spezia		68.7%
13.1%		18.2%
-191
+600
-200
+550
4
3		-0.43939-0.45463-0.37583
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Season Prediction Results

 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks10-0-1 (0.500)0-1.48122 
Sportsbooks10-0-1 (0.500)0-1.45629 
DRatings10-0-1 (0.500)0-2.10332
-0.62210
-0.64703

Season Simulation

*Through all games played on or before 06/08/20
#TeamWLTPtsWinChamps LeagueEuropa LeagueRelegation
1Juventus (20-3-3, 63 pts)26.05.86.284.155.9%100.0%0.0%0.0%
2Lazio (19-2-5, 62 pts)24.75.08.382.440.1%100.0%0.0%0.0%
3Inter (16-3-6, 54 pts)22.06.49.675.74.0%97.5%2.5%0.0%
4Atalanta (14-5-6, 48 pts)19.58.89.768.20.0%80.7%18.1%0.0%
5Roma (13-7-6, 45 pts)17.810.89.462.70.0%18.4%74.2%0.0%
6Napoli (11-9-6, 39 pts)15.612.99.556.30.0%1.9%46.3%0.0%
7Milan (10-10-6, 36 pts)14.214.49.452.10.0%0.3%10.3%0.0%
8Hellas Verona (9-8-8, 35 pts)13.412.811.752.10.0%0.7%12.8%0.1%
10Bologna (9-10-7, 34 pts)12.615.010.448.20.0%0.0%2.8%0.8%
11Sassuolo (9-11-5, 32 pts)13.116.28.748.00.0%0.0%4.1%0.6%
12Cagliari (8-9-8, 32 pts)12.813.611.750.00.0%0.0%7.7%0.5%
13Fiorentina (7-10-9, 30 pts)11.514.012.547.10.0%0.0%1.3%1.0%
14Udinese (7-12-7, 28 pts)11.016.610.543.40.0%0.0%0.0%8.7%
15Torino (8-14-3, 27 pts)11.919.46.742.30.0%0.0%0.1%15.3%
16Sampdoria (7-13-5, 26 pts)11.118.18.842.20.0%0.0%0.2%15.2%
17Genoa (6-13-7, 25 pts)9.817.810.439.70.0%0.0%0.0%31.4%

Predictions Methodology

Italy’s Serie A features twenty teams that play a home-and-home series with the other nineteen teams in the league for a total of 38 rounds of football. Currently, the top two teams that finish in the Serie A standings qualify for the Champions League Group Stage. The third place team makes Champions League Qualifying and fourth and fifth place teams earn berths to the Europa League. The teams that place in the bottom three of the table are relegated to Italy’s Serie B.