Italy Serie A Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Games for February 26, 2021

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		GoalsTotal
Goals		Best
O/U

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

More on Bet Value
More Details
PostponedSassuolo
Torino 		43.8%
32.2%		24.0%
+116
+248
+125
+240
1.69
1.23		2.92
o2½-128
u2½+108
o2½-120
u2½+105
Games for Feb 25, 2021
Games for Nov 23, 2024

Completed Games

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		Final
Goals		Sportsbook
Log Loss		DRatings
Log Loss
Bologna
Spezia		39.0%
36.7%		24.3%
+135
+225
+120
+230
1
0		-0.88307-0.83884-0.94215
Sassuolo
Milan		23.2%
58.1%		18.7%
+590
-215
+530
-225
3
1		-1.95857-1.89227-1.46188
Genoa
Udinese		31.5%
43.4%		25.1%
+475
-145
+400
-135
0
0		-1.36348-1.33184-1.38370
Atalanta
Juventus		30.7%
46.7%		22.7%
+262
+110
+250
+105
1
0		-1.31256-1.30280-1.18234
Hellas Verona
Sampdoria		38.0%
36.6%		25.4%
+155
+190
+155
+180
1
3		-1.09533-1.08063-1.00591
Salernitana
Cagliari		22.2%
58.0%		19.8%
+355
-115
+375
-125
1
1		-1.30265-1.30328-1.61742
Udinese
Torino		38.5%
36.1%		25.4%
+280
+115
+290
+110
1
2		-0.79191-0.79078-1.01932
Roma
Genoa		56.9%
24.1%		19.0%
-125
+360
-160
+410
2
0		-0.60391-0.53389-0.56354
Napoli
Inter		28.2%
48.6%		23.2%
+245
+125
+235
+120
2
3		-0.83480-0.83873-0.72138
Sampdoria
Salernitana		54.5%
24.3%		21.1%
+160
+195
+150
+195
2
0		-0.97307-0.96648-0.60669
Cagliari
Sassuolo		28.0%
50.6%		21.4%
+460
-170
+390
-150
2
2		-1.51645-1.44847-1.54356
Milan
Fiorentina		49.8%
27.1%		23.0%
+145
+210
+150
+185
3
4		-1.16024-1.09551-1.30401
Juventus
Lazio		44.4%
31.2%		24.4%
+157
+195
+155
+190
2
0		-0.97904-0.98438-0.81168
Spezia
Atalanta		14.2%
73.6%		12.2%
+1100
-360
+1050
-440
2
5		-0.27199-0.25351-0.30677
Inter
Milan		40.7%
34.9%		24.4%
+115
+250
+115
+245
1
1		-1.30911-1.27168-1.40985
Hellas Verona
Napoli		22.1%
56.6%		21.3%
+674
-225
+665
-260
1
1		-1.59805-1.66105-1.54693
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Season Prediction Results

 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks00-0-0 (0.000)0 
Sportsbooks00-0-0 (0.000)0 
DRatings00-0-0 (0.000)0

Season Simulation

*Through all games played on or before 06/08/20
#TeamWLTPtsWinChamps LeagueEuropa LeagueRelegation
1Juventus (20-3-3, 63 pts)26.05.86.284.155.9%100.0%0.0%0.0%
2Lazio (19-2-5, 62 pts)24.75.08.382.440.1%100.0%0.0%0.0%
3Inter (16-3-6, 54 pts)22.06.49.675.74.0%97.5%2.5%0.0%
4Atalanta (14-5-6, 48 pts)19.58.89.768.20.0%80.7%18.1%0.0%
5Roma (13-7-6, 45 pts)17.810.89.462.70.0%18.4%74.2%0.0%
6Napoli (11-9-6, 39 pts)15.612.99.556.30.0%1.9%46.3%0.0%
7Milan (10-10-6, 36 pts)14.214.49.452.10.0%0.3%10.3%0.0%
8Hellas Verona (9-8-8, 35 pts)13.412.811.752.10.0%0.7%12.8%0.1%
10Bologna (9-10-7, 34 pts)12.615.010.448.20.0%0.0%2.8%0.8%
11Sassuolo (9-11-5, 32 pts)13.116.28.748.00.0%0.0%4.1%0.6%
12Cagliari (8-9-8, 32 pts)12.813.611.750.00.0%0.0%7.7%0.5%
13Fiorentina (7-10-9, 30 pts)11.514.012.547.10.0%0.0%1.3%1.0%
14Udinese (7-12-7, 28 pts)11.016.610.543.40.0%0.0%0.0%8.7%
15Torino (8-14-3, 27 pts)11.919.46.742.30.0%0.0%0.1%15.3%
16Sampdoria (7-13-5, 26 pts)11.118.18.842.20.0%0.0%0.2%15.2%
17Genoa (6-13-7, 25 pts)9.817.810.439.70.0%0.0%0.0%31.4%

Predictions Methodology

Italy’s Serie A features twenty teams that play a home-and-home series with the other nineteen teams in the league for a total of 38 rounds of football. Currently, the top two teams that finish in the Serie A standings qualify for the Champions League Group Stage. The third place team makes Champions League Qualifying and fourth and fifth place teams earn berths to the Europa League. The teams that place in the bottom three of the table are relegated to Italy’s Serie B.