Italy Serie A Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Games for February 26, 2021

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		GoalsTotal
Goals		Best
O/U

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

More on Bet Value
More Details
PostponedSassuolo
Torino 		43.8%
32.2%		24.0%
+116
+248
+125
+240
1.69
1.23		2.92
o2½-128
u2½+108
o2½-120
u2½+105
Games for Feb 25, 2021
Games for Feb 27, 2021

Completed Games

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		Final
Goals		Sportsbook
Log Loss		DRatings
Log Loss
Hellas Verona
Fiorentina		29.2%
43.1%		27.6%
+296
+104
+275
+100
1
1		-1.29719-1.30383-1.28609
Torino
Bologna		31.4%
43.5%		25.1%
+173
+195
+160
+195
0
0		-1.16989-1.18764-1.38218
Lazio
Cagliari		64.8%
15.6%		19.5%
+108
+290
+100
+290
3
0		-0.75105-0.74244-0.43326
Atalanta
Roma		42.0%
33.8%		24.2%
+187
+165
+180
+155
0
1		-0.99258-0.98278-1.08424
Sampdoria
Udinese		31.0%
41.6%		27.4%
+393
-122
+355
-120
1
2		-0.62107-0.65583-0.87707
Salernitana
Inter		3.2%
88.9%		7.9%
+2250
-705
+2100
-800
0
5		-0.14577-0.16653-0.11770
Sampdoria
Atalanta		10.0%
75.7%		14.3%
+731
-234
+750
-260
0
4		-0.37932-0.37459-0.27851
Napoli
Lazio		33.2%
39.8%		27.1%
+160
+197
+150
+190
2
1		-0.96661-0.96304-1.10404
Roma
Spezia		68.2%
13.9%		18.0%
-128
+403
-140
+395
1
0		-0.59707-0.58971-0.38333
Cagliari
Torino		33.4%
40.7%		25.9%
+455
-132
+450
-145
2
1		-1.72952-1.75493-1.09599
Fiorentina
Sassuolo		33.1%
40.6%		26.2%
+164
+174
+155
+165
1
2		-1.01832-1.02449-0.90079
Bologna
Salernitana		57.9%
20.0%		22.1%
+120
+250
+110
+250
1
1		-1.25755-1.28884-1.50860
Inter
Genoa		74.4%
10.1%		15.5%
-295
+966
-310
+900
0
0		-1.73443-1.68007-1.86439
Udinese
Milan		12.5%
68.6%		18.9%
+685
-198
+675
-220
1
1		-1.50049-1.49745-1.66701
Spezia
Bologna		27.7%
47.5%		24.8%
+365
-111
+325
-115
1
2		-0.65656-0.67627-0.74396
Napoli
Cagliari		64.8%
15.2%		20.0%
-145
+490
-155
+460
1
1		-1.35919-1.38338-1.61009
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Season Prediction Results

 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks31-2-0 (0.333)0-1.22530 
Sportsbooks31-2-0 (0.333)0-1.22816 
DRatings31-2-0 (0.333)0-1.26628
-0.04098
-0.03813

Season Simulation

*Through all games played on or before 06/08/20
#TeamWLTPtsWinChamps LeagueEuropa LeagueRelegation
1Juventus (20-3-3, 63 pts)26.05.86.284.155.9%100.0%0.0%0.0%
2Lazio (19-2-5, 62 pts)24.75.08.382.440.1%100.0%0.0%0.0%
3Inter (16-3-6, 54 pts)22.06.49.675.74.0%97.5%2.5%0.0%
4Atalanta (14-5-6, 48 pts)19.58.89.768.20.0%80.7%18.1%0.0%
5Roma (13-7-6, 45 pts)17.810.89.462.70.0%18.4%74.2%0.0%
6Napoli (11-9-6, 39 pts)15.612.99.556.30.0%1.9%46.3%0.0%
7Milan (10-10-6, 36 pts)14.214.49.452.10.0%0.3%10.3%0.0%
8Hellas Verona (9-8-8, 35 pts)13.412.811.752.10.0%0.7%12.8%0.1%
10Bologna (9-10-7, 34 pts)12.615.010.448.20.0%0.0%2.8%0.8%
11Sassuolo (9-11-5, 32 pts)13.116.28.748.00.0%0.0%4.1%0.6%
12Cagliari (8-9-8, 32 pts)12.813.611.750.00.0%0.0%7.7%0.5%
13Fiorentina (7-10-9, 30 pts)11.514.012.547.10.0%0.0%1.3%1.0%
14Udinese (7-12-7, 28 pts)11.016.610.543.40.0%0.0%0.0%8.7%
15Torino (8-14-3, 27 pts)11.919.46.742.30.0%0.0%0.1%15.3%
16Sampdoria (7-13-5, 26 pts)11.118.18.842.20.0%0.0%0.2%15.2%
17Genoa (6-13-7, 25 pts)9.817.810.439.70.0%0.0%0.0%31.4%

Predictions Methodology

Italy’s Serie A features twenty teams that play a home-and-home series with the other nineteen teams in the league for a total of 38 rounds of football. Currently, the top two teams that finish in the Serie A standings qualify for the Champions League Group Stage. The third place team makes Champions League Qualifying and fourth and fifth place teams earn berths to the Europa League. The teams that place in the bottom three of the table are relegated to Italy’s Serie B.