Italy Serie A Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Games for February 26, 2021

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		GoalsTotal
Goals		Best
O/U

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

More on Bet Value
More Details
PostponedSassuolo
Torino 		43.8%
32.2%		24.0%
+116
+248
+125
+240
1.69
1.23		2.92
o2½-128
u2½+108
o2½-120
u2½+105
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Games for Nov 9, 2025

Games In Progress

TimeTeamsOrig.
Win %		Orig.
Draw %		Closing
ML		Orig. Total
Goals		Closing
O/U		PeriodCurrent
Score
Fiorentina
Genoa 		44.2%
29.5%		26.4%
+180
+204
+185
+185
2.54
o1¾-125
u1¾+105
o2+110
u2-125
1st H
36:00		1
1
Napoli
Bologna 		64.0%
16.0%		20.0%
+175
+195
+175
+210
3.05
o2-105
u2-108
o2-105
u2-105
1st H
36:00		0
0

Completed Games

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		Final
Goals		Sportsbook
Log Loss		DRatings
Log Loss
Spezia
Inter		12.1%
75.3%		12.6%
+1650
-650
+1600
-650
0
2		-0.17742-0.19236-0.28378
Roma
Bologna		56.7%
24.5%		18.8%
+150
+200
+150
+185
0
1		-1.12572-1.09133-1.40834
Juventus
Salernitana		79.9%
8.3%		11.8%
-275
+900
-300
+900
2
0		-0.34294-0.33647-0.22419
Cagliari
Hellas Verona		29.0%
47.0%		23.9%
+560
-165
+575
-190
0
0		-1.44723-1.48479-1.42962
Sampdoria
Fiorentina		29.5%
46.6%		23.9%
+415
-130
+400
-140
1
3		-0.59283-0.58444-0.76312
Lazio
Napoli		34.3%
40.9%		24.8%
+335
-110
+360
-130
0
4		-0.67031-0.61865-0.89465
Torino
Roma		19.4%
65.0%		15.6%
+360
-120
+335
-120
0
1		-0.62455-0.65427-0.43120
Bologna
Spezia		39.0%
36.7%		24.3%
+135
+225
+120
+230
1
0		-0.88307-0.83884-0.94215
Sassuolo
Milan		23.2%
58.1%		18.7%
+590
-215
+530
-225
3
1		-1.95857-1.89227-1.46188
Genoa
Udinese		31.5%
43.4%		25.1%
+475
-145
+400
-135
0
0		-1.36348-1.33184-1.38370
Atalanta
Juventus		30.7%
46.7%		22.7%
+262
+110
+250
+105
1
0		-1.31256-1.30280-1.18234
Hellas Verona
Sampdoria		38.0%
36.6%		25.4%
+155
+190
+155
+180
1
3		-1.09533-1.08063-1.00591
Salernitana
Cagliari		22.2%
58.0%		19.8%
+355
-115
+375
-125
1
1		-1.30265-1.30328-1.61742
Udinese
Torino		38.5%
36.1%		25.4%
+280
+115
+290
+110
1
2		-0.79191-0.79078-1.01932
Roma
Genoa		56.9%
24.1%		19.0%
-125
+360
-160
+410
2
0		-0.60391-0.53389-0.56354
Napoli
Inter		28.2%
48.6%		23.2%
+245
+125
+235
+120
2
3		-0.83480-0.83873-0.72138
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Season Prediction Results

 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks20-1-1 (0.250)0-1.72256 
Sportsbooks20-1-1 (0.250)0-1.72240 
DRatings20-1-1 (0.250)0-2.03928
-0.31672
-0.31688

Season Simulation

*Through all games played on or before 06/08/20
#TeamWLTPtsWinChamps LeagueEuropa LeagueRelegation
1Juventus (20-3-3, 63 pts)26.05.86.284.155.9%100.0%0.0%0.0%
2Lazio (19-2-5, 62 pts)24.75.08.382.440.1%100.0%0.0%0.0%
3Inter (16-3-6, 54 pts)22.06.49.675.74.0%97.5%2.5%0.0%
4Atalanta (14-5-6, 48 pts)19.58.89.768.20.0%80.7%18.1%0.0%
5Roma (13-7-6, 45 pts)17.810.89.462.70.0%18.4%74.2%0.0%
6Napoli (11-9-6, 39 pts)15.612.99.556.30.0%1.9%46.3%0.0%
7Milan (10-10-6, 36 pts)14.214.49.452.10.0%0.3%10.3%0.0%
8Hellas Verona (9-8-8, 35 pts)13.412.811.752.10.0%0.7%12.8%0.1%
10Bologna (9-10-7, 34 pts)12.615.010.448.20.0%0.0%2.8%0.8%
11Sassuolo (9-11-5, 32 pts)13.116.28.748.00.0%0.0%4.1%0.6%
12Cagliari (8-9-8, 32 pts)12.813.611.750.00.0%0.0%7.7%0.5%
13Fiorentina (7-10-9, 30 pts)11.514.012.547.10.0%0.0%1.3%1.0%
14Udinese (7-12-7, 28 pts)11.016.610.543.40.0%0.0%0.0%8.7%
15Torino (8-14-3, 27 pts)11.919.46.742.30.0%0.0%0.1%15.3%
16Sampdoria (7-13-5, 26 pts)11.118.18.842.20.0%0.0%0.2%15.2%
17Genoa (6-13-7, 25 pts)9.817.810.439.70.0%0.0%0.0%31.4%

Predictions Methodology

Italy’s Serie A features twenty teams that play a home-and-home series with the other nineteen teams in the league for a total of 38 rounds of football. Currently, the top two teams that finish in the Serie A standings qualify for the Champions League Group Stage. The third place team makes Champions League Qualifying and fourth and fifth place teams earn berths to the Europa League. The teams that place in the bottom three of the table are relegated to Italy’s Serie B.