Italy Serie A Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Games for February 26, 2021

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		GoalsTotal
Goals		Best
O/U

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

More on Bet Value
More Details
PostponedSassuolo
Torino 		43.8%
32.2%		24.0%
+116
+248
+125
+240
1.69
1.23		2.92
o2½-128
u2½+108
o2½-120
u2½+105
Games for Feb 25, 2021
Games for Nov 9, 2025

Games In Progress

TimeTeamsOrig.
Win %		Orig.
Draw %		Closing
ML		Orig. Total
Goals		Closing
O/U		PeriodCurrent
Score
Fiorentina
Genoa 		44.2%
29.5%		26.4%
+180
+204
+185
+185
2.54
o1¾-125
u1¾+105
o2+110
u2-125
FINAL
FINAL		2
2
Napoli
Bologna 		64.0%
16.0%		20.0%
+175
+195
+175
+210
3.05
o2-105
u2-108
o2-105
u2-105
FINAL
FINAL		0
2

Completed Games

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		Final
Goals		Sportsbook
Log Loss		DRatings
Log Loss
Sampdoria
Salernitana		54.5%
24.3%		21.1%
+160
+195
+150
+195
2
0		-0.97307-0.96648-0.60669
Cagliari
Sassuolo		28.0%
50.6%		21.4%
+460
-170
+390
-150
2
2		-1.51645-1.44847-1.54356
Milan
Fiorentina		49.8%
27.1%		23.0%
+145
+210
+150
+185
3
4		-1.16024-1.09551-1.30401
Juventus
Lazio		44.4%
31.2%		24.4%
+157
+195
+155
+190
2
0		-0.97904-0.98438-0.81168
Spezia
Atalanta		14.2%
73.6%		12.2%
+1100
-360
+1050
-440
2
5		-0.27199-0.25351-0.30677
Inter
Milan		40.7%
34.9%		24.4%
+115
+250
+115
+245
1
1		-1.30911-1.27168-1.40985
Hellas Verona
Napoli		22.1%
56.6%		21.3%
+674
-225
+665
-260
1
1		-1.59805-1.66105-1.54693
Salernitana
Lazio		10.0%
78.4%		11.6%
+964
-320
+950
-375
0
3		-0.29424-0.28650-0.24377
Sassuolo
Udinese		39.3%
35.8%		24.9%
+240
+130
+205
+130
2
3		-0.84742-0.88409-1.02798
Bologna
Sampdoria		33.5%
42.9%		23.6%
+170
+179
+185
+145
2
1		-1.02457-1.09506-1.09383
Atalanta
Cagliari		64.5%
19.8%		15.6%
-205
+586
-200
+515
2
1		-0.42111-0.45567-0.43796
Fiorentina
Juventus		17.5%
64.1%		18.4%
+470
-145
+510
-170
0
1		-0.54794-0.51139-0.44440
Torino
Spezia		37.7%
37.9%		24.4%
+116
+250
+115
+240
0
1		-1.28659-1.27576-0.97091
Cagliari
Bologna		34.3%
41.9%		23.8%
+425
-145
+420
-155
0
2		-0.55633-0.54678-0.87089
Bologna
Napoli		18.9%
64.1%		17.0%
+1100
-385
+1100
-430
0
3		-0.26143-0.25874-0.44407
Roma
Cagliari		57.5%
23.6%		18.9%
-200
+560
-200
+530
2
1		-0.43595-0.45198-0.55328
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Season Prediction Results

 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks20-1-1 (0.250)0-1.72256 
Sportsbooks20-1-1 (0.250)0-1.72240 
DRatings20-1-1 (0.250)0-2.03928
-0.31672
-0.31688

Season Simulation

*Through all games played on or before 06/08/20
#TeamWLTPtsWinChamps LeagueEuropa LeagueRelegation
1Juventus (20-3-3, 63 pts)26.05.86.284.155.9%100.0%0.0%0.0%
2Lazio (19-2-5, 62 pts)24.75.08.382.440.1%100.0%0.0%0.0%
3Inter (16-3-6, 54 pts)22.06.49.675.74.0%97.5%2.5%0.0%
4Atalanta (14-5-6, 48 pts)19.58.89.768.20.0%80.7%18.1%0.0%
5Roma (13-7-6, 45 pts)17.810.89.462.70.0%18.4%74.2%0.0%
6Napoli (11-9-6, 39 pts)15.612.99.556.30.0%1.9%46.3%0.0%
7Milan (10-10-6, 36 pts)14.214.49.452.10.0%0.3%10.3%0.0%
8Hellas Verona (9-8-8, 35 pts)13.412.811.752.10.0%0.7%12.8%0.1%
10Bologna (9-10-7, 34 pts)12.615.010.448.20.0%0.0%2.8%0.8%
11Sassuolo (9-11-5, 32 pts)13.116.28.748.00.0%0.0%4.1%0.6%
12Cagliari (8-9-8, 32 pts)12.813.611.750.00.0%0.0%7.7%0.5%
13Fiorentina (7-10-9, 30 pts)11.514.012.547.10.0%0.0%1.3%1.0%
14Udinese (7-12-7, 28 pts)11.016.610.543.40.0%0.0%0.0%8.7%
15Torino (8-14-3, 27 pts)11.919.46.742.30.0%0.0%0.1%15.3%
16Sampdoria (7-13-5, 26 pts)11.118.18.842.20.0%0.0%0.2%15.2%
17Genoa (6-13-7, 25 pts)9.817.810.439.70.0%0.0%0.0%31.4%

Predictions Methodology

Italy’s Serie A features twenty teams that play a home-and-home series with the other nineteen teams in the league for a total of 38 rounds of football. Currently, the top two teams that finish in the Serie A standings qualify for the Champions League Group Stage. The third place team makes Champions League Qualifying and fourth and fifth place teams earn berths to the Europa League. The teams that place in the bottom three of the table are relegated to Italy’s Serie B.