Italy Serie A Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Games for February 26, 2021

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		GoalsTotal
Goals		Best
O/U

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

More on Bet Value
More Details
PostponedSassuolo
Torino 		43.8%
32.2%		24.0%
+116
+248
+125
+240
1.69
1.23		2.92
o2½-128
u2½+108
o2½-120
u2½+105
Games for Feb 25, 2021
Games for Nov 9, 2025

Games In Progress

TimeTeamsOrig.
Win %		Orig.
Draw %		Closing
ML		Orig. Total
Goals		Closing
O/U		PeriodCurrent
Score
Udinese
Roma 		14.9%
65.5%		19.6%
+610
-180
+620
-190
3.05
o2¼-120
u2¼+100
o2½+105
u2½-125
2nd H
72:00		0
2

Completed Games

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		Final
Goals		Sportsbook
Log Loss		DRatings
Log Loss
Bologna
Napoli		18.9%
64.1%		17.0%
+1100
-385
+1100
-430
0
3		-0.26143-0.25874-0.44407
Roma
Cagliari		57.5%
23.6%		18.9%
-200
+560
-200
+530
2
1		-0.43595-0.45198-0.55328
Fiorentina
Lazio		24.5%
54.0%		21.5%
+335
-120
+320
-115
0
1		-0.63741-0.67523-0.61548
Sassuolo
Juventus		17.8%
66.1%		16.1%
+624
-225
+590
-230
2
1		-2.00962-1.98050-1.72328
Hellas Verona
Udinese		36.3%
36.8%		27.0%
+242
+145
+210
+140
1
1		-1.17613-1.21362-1.30978
Atalanta
Sampdoria		61.3%
21.8%		16.9%
-120
+330
-125
+320
3
1		-0.63377-0.63663-0.48960
Torino
Milan		17.1%
67.8%		15.2%
+465
-150
+460
-150
0
1		-0.54053-0.55851-0.38926
Genoa
Spezia		38.4%
36.9%		24.7%
+220
+125
+200
+130
1
1		-1.31505-1.30523-1.39829
Juventus
Inter		36.2%
38.6%		25.3%
+260
+110
+265
+100
1
1		-1.31219-1.33139-1.37567
Napoli
Roma		36.6%
39.1%		24.2%
+140
+205
+140
+195
0
0		-1.30298-1.27236-1.41721
Lazio
Hellas Verona		49.9%
27.0%		23.1%
+145
+195
+135
+195
1
4		-1.11413-1.13082-1.30822
Cagliari
Fiorentina		27.2%
49.8%		23.0%
+500
-170
+500
-175
0
3		-0.49372-0.49786-0.69748
Udinese
Atalanta		18.2%
65.6%		16.2%
+741
-250
+670
-240
1
1		-1.66601-1.59494-1.82016
Milan
Bologna		59.9%
21.8%		18.3%
+120
+240
+120
+225
4
2		-0.82225-0.83924-0.51189
Spezia
Sampdoria		29.7%
47.0%		23.3%
+350
-130
+375
-140
1
2		-0.60431-0.58805-0.75602
Genoa
Torino		36.0%
40.0%		24.0%
+425
-135
+420
-145
2
3		-0.57869-0.57408-0.91694
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Season Prediction Results

 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks30-2-1 (0.167)0-1.38941 
Sportsbooks30-2-1 (0.167)0-1.42414 
DRatings30-2-1 (0.167)0-1.71398
-0.32458
-0.28984

Season Simulation

*Through all games played on or before 06/08/20
#TeamWLTPtsWinChamps LeagueEuropa LeagueRelegation
1Juventus (20-3-3, 63 pts)26.05.86.284.155.9%100.0%0.0%0.0%
2Lazio (19-2-5, 62 pts)24.75.08.382.440.1%100.0%0.0%0.0%
3Inter (16-3-6, 54 pts)22.06.49.675.74.0%97.5%2.5%0.0%
4Atalanta (14-5-6, 48 pts)19.58.89.768.20.0%80.7%18.1%0.0%
5Roma (13-7-6, 45 pts)17.810.89.462.70.0%18.4%74.2%0.0%
6Napoli (11-9-6, 39 pts)15.612.99.556.30.0%1.9%46.3%0.0%
7Milan (10-10-6, 36 pts)14.214.49.452.10.0%0.3%10.3%0.0%
8Hellas Verona (9-8-8, 35 pts)13.412.811.752.10.0%0.7%12.8%0.1%
10Bologna (9-10-7, 34 pts)12.615.010.448.20.0%0.0%2.8%0.8%
11Sassuolo (9-11-5, 32 pts)13.116.28.748.00.0%0.0%4.1%0.6%
12Cagliari (8-9-8, 32 pts)12.813.611.750.00.0%0.0%7.7%0.5%
13Fiorentina (7-10-9, 30 pts)11.514.012.547.10.0%0.0%1.3%1.0%
14Udinese (7-12-7, 28 pts)11.016.610.543.40.0%0.0%0.0%8.7%
15Torino (8-14-3, 27 pts)11.919.46.742.30.0%0.0%0.1%15.3%
16Sampdoria (7-13-5, 26 pts)11.118.18.842.20.0%0.0%0.2%15.2%
17Genoa (6-13-7, 25 pts)9.817.810.439.70.0%0.0%0.0%31.4%

Predictions Methodology

Italy’s Serie A features twenty teams that play a home-and-home series with the other nineteen teams in the league for a total of 38 rounds of football. Currently, the top two teams that finish in the Serie A standings qualify for the Champions League Group Stage. The third place team makes Champions League Qualifying and fourth and fifth place teams earn berths to the Europa League. The teams that place in the bottom three of the table are relegated to Italy’s Serie B.