Italy Serie A Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Games for February 26, 2021

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		GoalsTotal
Goals		Best
O/U

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

More on Bet Value
More Details
PostponedSassuolo
Torino 		43.8%
32.2%		24.0%
+116
+248
+125
+240
1.69
1.23		2.92
o2½-128
u2½+108
o2½-120
u2½+105
Games for Feb 25, 2021
Games for Mar 20, 2026

Completed Games

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		Final
Goals		Sportsbook
Log Loss		DRatings
Log Loss
Sassuolo
Milan		23.4%
58.6%		18.0%
+300
-111
+310
-120
2
1		-1.42147-1.46218-1.45355
Fiorentina
Hellas Verona		35.1%
36.1%		28.8%
+195
+158
+180
+165
2
1		-1.11100-1.08028-1.04814
Inter
Napoli		41.4%
32.4%		26.2%
+140
+210
+140
+205
1
1		-1.03212-1.04178-1.00460
Roma
Torino		58.7%
23.7%		17.7%
+146
+190
+150
+205
1
3		-1.09796-1.13271-1.44033
Spezia
Bologna		31.0%
44.4%		24.6%
+290
-108
+260
-105
1
4		-0.69017-0.71756-0.81144
Juventus
Atalanta		39.3%
34.9%		25.8%
+220
+130
+200
+130
0
1		-0.86538-0.88150-1.05374
Benevento
Lazio		18.0%
66.9%		15.1%
+825
-290
+725
-255
3
5		-0.32640-0.37970-0.40188
Genoa
Milan		18.0%
68.4%		13.6%
+700
-230
+575
-220
1
2		-0.39255-0.42414-0.38047
Parma
Cagliari		31.2%
43.7%		25.1%
+210
+135
+220
+125
3
4		-0.88768-0.86074-0.82709
Fiorentina
Sassuolo		34.3%
39.4%		26.2%
+190
+160
+185
+160
1
3		-0.99196-0.99777-0.93067
Hellas Verona
Sampdoria		36.8%
35.4%		27.8%
+160
+188
+170
+170
1
3		-1.09207-1.04055-1.03767
Udinese
Crotone		48.1%
27.6%		24.3%
+105
+280
-115
+320
2
1		-0.74619-0.67523-0.73228
Sassuolo
Benevento		44.9%
31.3%		23.8%
+135
+230
+135
+215
1
0		-0.88114-0.89941-0.80153
Atalanta
Fiorentina		53.6%
25.9%		20.5%
-189
+540
-200
+525
3
2		-0.45661-0.45319-0.62390
Bologna
Roma		20.3%
63.6%		16.1%
+300
-108
+300
-110
0
1		-0.68462-0.69331-0.45301
Napoli
Sampdoria		55.0%
24.1%		21.0%
-165
+486
-150
+400
2
0		-0.49931-0.55961-0.59800
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Season Prediction Results

 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks00-0-0 (0.000)0 
Sportsbooks00-0-0 (0.000)0 
DRatings00-0-0 (0.000)0

Season Simulation

*Through all games played on or before 06/08/20
#TeamWLTPtsWinChamps LeagueEuropa LeagueRelegation
1Juventus (20-3-3, 63 pts)26.05.86.284.155.9%100.0%0.0%0.0%
2Lazio (19-2-5, 62 pts)24.75.08.382.440.1%100.0%0.0%0.0%
3Inter (16-3-6, 54 pts)22.06.49.675.74.0%97.5%2.5%0.0%
4Atalanta (14-5-6, 48 pts)19.58.89.768.20.0%80.7%18.1%0.0%
5Roma (13-7-6, 45 pts)17.810.89.462.70.0%18.4%74.2%0.0%
6Napoli (11-9-6, 39 pts)15.612.99.556.30.0%1.9%46.3%0.0%
7Milan (10-10-6, 36 pts)14.214.49.452.10.0%0.3%10.3%0.0%
8Hellas Verona (9-8-8, 35 pts)13.412.811.752.10.0%0.7%12.8%0.1%
10Bologna (9-10-7, 34 pts)12.615.010.448.20.0%0.0%2.8%0.8%
11Sassuolo (9-11-5, 32 pts)13.116.28.748.00.0%0.0%4.1%0.6%
12Cagliari (8-9-8, 32 pts)12.813.611.750.00.0%0.0%7.7%0.5%
13Fiorentina (7-10-9, 30 pts)11.514.012.547.10.0%0.0%1.3%1.0%
14Udinese (7-12-7, 28 pts)11.016.610.543.40.0%0.0%0.0%8.7%
15Torino (8-14-3, 27 pts)11.919.46.742.30.0%0.0%0.1%15.3%
16Sampdoria (7-13-5, 26 pts)11.118.18.842.20.0%0.0%0.2%15.2%
17Genoa (6-13-7, 25 pts)9.817.810.439.70.0%0.0%0.0%31.4%

Predictions Methodology

Italy’s Serie A features twenty teams that play a home-and-home series with the other nineteen teams in the league for a total of 38 rounds of football. Currently, the top two teams that finish in the Serie A standings qualify for the Champions League Group Stage. The third place team makes Champions League Qualifying and fourth and fifth place teams earn berths to the Europa League. The teams that place in the bottom three of the table are relegated to Italy’s Serie B.