Italy Serie A Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Games for February 26, 2021

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		GoalsTotal
Goals		Best
O/U

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

More on Bet Value
More Details
PostponedSassuolo
Torino 		43.8%
32.2%		24.0%
+116
+248
+125
+240
1.69
1.23		2.92
o2½-128
u2½+108
o2½-120
u2½+105
Games for Feb 25, 2021
Games for Mar 20, 2026

Completed Games

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		Final
Goals		Sportsbook
Log Loss		DRatings
Log Loss
Lazio
Hellas Verona		49.9%
27.0%		23.1%
+112
+280
+110
+265
1
0		-0.77997-0.78946-0.69525
Genoa
Juventus		13.1%
73.1%		13.8%
+1411
-425
+1100
-385
1
3		-0.23997-0.28071-0.31316
Cagliari
Inter		13.8%
72.9%		13.3%
+1036
-335
+975
-330
0
1		-0.28175-0.31438-0.31614
Torino
Udinese		30.9%
44.5%		24.5%
+240
+134
+215
+135
1
0		-1.24977-1.19683-1.17377
Milan
Parma		64.5%
18.5%		17.0%
-135
+400
-145
+425
3
1		-0.58794-0.57235-0.43841
Crotone
Spezia		29.1%
47.8%		23.0%
+325
-115
+320
-120
2
3		-0.66188-0.65179-0.73796
Sassuolo
Inter		19.1%
65.0%		15.9%
+920
-325
+875
-335
1
2		-0.29998-0.30676-0.43084
Napoli
Juventus		26.6%
49.8%		23.7%
+305
-104
+285
-105
1
2		-0.70035-0.71756-0.69782
Inter
Bologna		68.3%
18.3%		13.4%
-215
+625
-235
+625
1
0		-0.39647-0.40329-0.38152
Juventus
Torino		71.0%
16.4%		12.6%
-190
+570
-200
+550
2
2		-1.18642-1.18778-1.07646
Hellas Verona
Cagliari		39.8%
33.2%		27.0%
+170
+181
+175
+165
2
0		-1.01771-1.05912-0.92047
Udinese
Atalanta		18.6%
67.3%		14.1%
+741
-217
+650
-220
2
3		-0.39289-0.42417-0.39655
Spezia
Lazio		17.1%
69.8%		13.1%
+600
-200
+625
-220
1
2		-0.43434-0.42606-0.35939
Roma
Sassuolo		47.4%
30.3%		22.4%
-135
+340
-160
+355
2
2		-1.05170-1.05612-0.97141
Fiorentina
Genoa		41.9%
31.8%		26.3%
+140
+260
+145
+230
1
1		-1.10026-1.09397-1.00714
Crotone
Napoli		13.1%
77.5%		9.5%
+1229
-425
+1200
-420
3
4		-0.23375-0.26359-0.25518
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Season Prediction Results

 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks00-0-0 (0.000)0 
Sportsbooks00-0-0 (0.000)0 
DRatings00-0-0 (0.000)0

Season Simulation

*Through all games played on or before 06/08/20
#TeamWLTPtsWinChamps LeagueEuropa LeagueRelegation
1Juventus (20-3-3, 63 pts)26.05.86.284.155.9%100.0%0.0%0.0%
2Lazio (19-2-5, 62 pts)24.75.08.382.440.1%100.0%0.0%0.0%
3Inter (16-3-6, 54 pts)22.06.49.675.74.0%97.5%2.5%0.0%
4Atalanta (14-5-6, 48 pts)19.58.89.768.20.0%80.7%18.1%0.0%
5Roma (13-7-6, 45 pts)17.810.89.462.70.0%18.4%74.2%0.0%
6Napoli (11-9-6, 39 pts)15.612.99.556.30.0%1.9%46.3%0.0%
7Milan (10-10-6, 36 pts)14.214.49.452.10.0%0.3%10.3%0.0%
8Hellas Verona (9-8-8, 35 pts)13.412.811.752.10.0%0.7%12.8%0.1%
10Bologna (9-10-7, 34 pts)12.615.010.448.20.0%0.0%2.8%0.8%
11Sassuolo (9-11-5, 32 pts)13.116.28.748.00.0%0.0%4.1%0.6%
12Cagliari (8-9-8, 32 pts)12.813.611.750.00.0%0.0%7.7%0.5%
13Fiorentina (7-10-9, 30 pts)11.514.012.547.10.0%0.0%1.3%1.0%
14Udinese (7-12-7, 28 pts)11.016.610.543.40.0%0.0%0.0%8.7%
15Torino (8-14-3, 27 pts)11.919.46.742.30.0%0.0%0.1%15.3%
16Sampdoria (7-13-5, 26 pts)11.118.18.842.20.0%0.0%0.2%15.2%
17Genoa (6-13-7, 25 pts)9.817.810.439.70.0%0.0%0.0%31.4%

Predictions Methodology

Italy’s Serie A features twenty teams that play a home-and-home series with the other nineteen teams in the league for a total of 38 rounds of football. Currently, the top two teams that finish in the Serie A standings qualify for the Champions League Group Stage. The third place team makes Champions League Qualifying and fourth and fifth place teams earn berths to the Europa League. The teams that place in the bottom three of the table are relegated to Italy’s Serie B.