Italy Serie A Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Games for February 26, 2021

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		GoalsTotal
Goals		Best
O/U

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

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More Details
PostponedSassuolo
Torino 		43.8%
32.2%		24.0%
+116
+248
+125
+240
1.69
1.23		2.92
o2½-128
u2½+108
o2½-120
u2½+105
Games for Feb 25, 2021
Games for Mar 20, 2026

Completed Games

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		Final
Goals		Sportsbook
Log Loss		DRatings
Log Loss
Sampdoria
Milan		19.4%
65.4%		15.2%
+600
-210
+555
-200
1
1		-1.20242-1.19306-1.03189
Napoli
Roma		35.6%
38.0%		26.4%
+190
+160
+170
+160
2
0		-1.08382-1.04120-0.47829
Milan
Fiorentina		49.6%
27.0%		23.4%
+102
+280
+105
+265
3
2		-0.73846-0.75664-0.31500
Benevento
Juventus		12.5%
76.8%		10.8%
+1616
-600
+1600
-650
1
0		-2.87511-2.88258-1.45942
Torino
Sampdoria		31.8%
43.5%		24.8%
+185
+160
+185
+155
0
1		-0.98894-0.98556-0.83321
Lazio
Udinese		52.8%
24.9%		22.3%
+105
+295
+105
+285
1
0		-0.75232-0.76718-0.28699
Atalanta
Hellas Verona		56.6%
24.3%		19.1%
-140
+415
-145
+400
2
0		-0.55902-0.57481-0.27792
Cagliari
Spezia		36.6%
36.1%		27.3%
+179
+180
+185
+165
1
2		-1.06213-1.02413-1.01783
Bologna
Crotone		45.7%
30.5%		23.8%
-125
+359
-110
+300
3
2		-0.61782-0.69693-0.36335
Genoa
Parma		37.8%
35.4%		26.8%
+210
+152
+200
+150
2
1		-0.48363-0.47912-0.43665
Sassuolo
Torino		43.8%
32.2%		24.0%
+182
+160
+180
+150
2
3		-0.99083-0.96627-0.85953
Napoli
Milan		32.5%
41.2%		26.3%
+154
+198
+155
+190
1
0		-0.39527-0.39835-0.81921
Juventus
Cagliari		70.3%
16.5%		13.2%
-196
+625
-220
+610
3
1		-0.14567-0.14395-0.21072
Roma
Parma		62.6%
21.3%		16.0%
-160
+460
-160
+450
0
2		-1.75158-1.75389-1.37015
Inter
Torino		69.9%
17.5%		12.6%
-305
+988
-255
+775
2
1		-0.09415-0.11524-0.22381
Sampdoria
Bologna		35.9%
37.9%		26.2%
+235
+126
+235
+125
1
3		-0.84987-0.86034-0.66699
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Season Prediction Results

 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks00-0-0 (0.000)0 
Sportsbooks00-0-0 (0.000)0 
DRatings00-0-0 (0.000)0

Season Simulation

*Through all games played on or before 06/08/20
#TeamWLTPtsWinChamps LeagueEuropa LeagueRelegation
1Juventus (20-3-3, 63 pts)26.05.86.284.155.9%100.0%0.0%0.0%
2Lazio (19-2-5, 62 pts)24.75.08.382.440.1%100.0%0.0%0.0%
3Inter (16-3-6, 54 pts)22.06.49.675.74.0%97.5%2.5%0.0%
4Atalanta (14-5-6, 48 pts)19.58.89.768.20.0%80.7%18.1%0.0%
5Roma (13-7-6, 45 pts)17.810.89.462.70.0%18.4%74.2%0.0%
6Napoli (11-9-6, 39 pts)15.612.99.556.30.0%1.9%46.3%0.0%
7Milan (10-10-6, 36 pts)14.214.49.452.10.0%0.3%10.3%0.0%
8Hellas Verona (9-8-8, 35 pts)13.412.811.752.10.0%0.7%12.8%0.1%
10Bologna (9-10-7, 34 pts)12.615.010.448.20.0%0.0%2.8%0.8%
11Sassuolo (9-11-5, 32 pts)13.116.28.748.00.0%0.0%4.1%0.6%
12Cagliari (8-9-8, 32 pts)12.813.611.750.00.0%0.0%7.7%0.5%
13Fiorentina (7-10-9, 30 pts)11.514.012.547.10.0%0.0%1.3%1.0%
14Udinese (7-12-7, 28 pts)11.016.610.543.40.0%0.0%0.0%8.7%
15Torino (8-14-3, 27 pts)11.919.46.742.30.0%0.0%0.1%15.3%
16Sampdoria (7-13-5, 26 pts)11.118.18.842.20.0%0.0%0.2%15.2%
17Genoa (6-13-7, 25 pts)9.817.810.439.70.0%0.0%0.0%31.4%

Predictions Methodology

Italy’s Serie A features twenty teams that play a home-and-home series with the other nineteen teams in the league for a total of 38 rounds of football. Currently, the top two teams that finish in the Serie A standings qualify for the Champions League Group Stage. The third place team makes Champions League Qualifying and fourth and fifth place teams earn berths to the Europa League. The teams that place in the bottom three of the table are relegated to Italy’s Serie B.