Italy Serie A Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Games for April 28, 2025

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		GoalsTotal
Goals		Best
O/U

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

More on Bet Value
More Details
Bologna
Udinese 		28.9%
44.8%		26.3%
-105
+320

1.10
1.44		2.54
o2¼+108
u2¼-128

Cagliari
Hellas Verona 		24.7%
50.4%		24.9%
+205
+155

1.05
1.60		2.65
o2-118
u2-102

Games for Apr 27, 2025
Games for Apr 29, 2025

Completed Games

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		Final
Goals		Sportsbook
Log Loss		DRatings
Log Loss
Hellas Verona
Roma		17.2%
62.2%		20.6%
+540
-170
+600
-175
0
1		-0.49788-0.48080-0.47515
Roma
Lazio		31.7%
43.2%		25.1%
+145
+228
+146
+215
1
1		-1.17746-1.18797-1.38286
Genoa
Hellas Verona		25.3%
49.5%		25.2%
+195
+201
+195
+195
0
0		-1.05757-1.04044-1.38019
Bologna
Atalanta		8.8%
78.0%		13.1%
+330
-105
+306
+115
0
2		-0.69133-0.77100-0.24806
Cagliari
Inter		7.1%
80.3%		12.7%
+950
-313
+985
-310
1
3		-0.31158-0.30923-0.21956
Milan
Udinese		60.9%
17.1%		22.0%
-115
+335
-110
+310
4
0		-0.66016-0.69485-0.49589
Napoli
Bologna		64.0%
16.0%		20.0%
+215
+170
+210
+170
1
1		-1.11957-1.10181-1.60804
Juventus
Roma		49.0%
26.5%		24.5%
+218
+152
+211
+155
1
1		-1.16472-1.16703-1.40609
Lazio
Atalanta		27.4%
49.3%		23.3%
+455
-150
+440
-145
1
0		-1.74354-1.71613-1.29558
Hellas Verona
Torino		42.1%
31.3%		26.6%
+435
-113
+440
-115
1
1		-1.19267-1.19521-1.32497
Fiorentina
Milan		16.3%
62.7%		21.0%
+382
-125
+390
-130
2
2		-1.34109-1.34715-1.56303
Udinese
Genoa		36.3%
35.3%		28.3%
+259
+145
+248
+150
0
1		-0.91594-0.94796-1.04001
Torino
Lazio		11.0%
73.0%		16.0%
+400
-125
+385
-115
1
1		-1.31375-1.28946-1.83327
Milan
Napoli		34.6%
37.9%		27.4%
+312
-105
+310
-110
1
2		-0.70122-0.69485-0.96985
Udinese
Inter		9.0%
75.3%		15.8%
+750
-225
+775
-230
1
2		-0.39470-0.39395-0.28421
Atalanta
Fiorentina		59.3%
19.6%		21.1%
+113
+262
+105
+264
0
1		-1.31744-1.33907-1.62918
Load More Games

Season Prediction Results

 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks11-0-0 (1.000)0-0.49788 
Sportsbooks11-0-0 (1.000)0-0.48080 
DRatings11-0-0 (1.000)0-0.47515
0.02273
0.00565

Season Simulation

*Through all games played on or before 06/08/20
#TeamWLTPtsWinChamps LeagueEuropa LeagueRelegation
1Juventus (20-3-3, 63 pts)26.05.86.284.155.9%100.0%0.0%0.0%
2Lazio (19-2-5, 62 pts)24.75.08.382.440.1%100.0%0.0%0.0%
3Inter (16-3-6, 54 pts)22.06.49.675.74.0%97.5%2.5%0.0%
4Atalanta (14-5-6, 48 pts)19.58.89.768.20.0%80.7%18.1%0.0%
5Roma (13-7-6, 45 pts)17.810.89.462.70.0%18.4%74.2%0.0%
6Napoli (11-9-6, 39 pts)15.612.99.556.30.0%1.9%46.3%0.0%
7Milan (10-10-6, 36 pts)14.214.49.452.10.0%0.3%10.3%0.0%
8Hellas Verona (9-8-8, 35 pts)13.412.811.752.10.0%0.7%12.8%0.1%
10Bologna (9-10-7, 34 pts)12.615.010.448.20.0%0.0%2.8%0.8%
11Sassuolo (9-11-5, 32 pts)13.116.28.748.00.0%0.0%4.1%0.6%
12Cagliari (8-9-8, 32 pts)12.813.611.750.00.0%0.0%7.7%0.5%
13Fiorentina (7-10-9, 30 pts)11.514.012.547.10.0%0.0%1.3%1.0%
14Udinese (7-12-7, 28 pts)11.016.610.543.40.0%0.0%0.0%8.7%
15Torino (8-14-3, 27 pts)11.919.46.742.30.0%0.0%0.1%15.3%
16Sampdoria (7-13-5, 26 pts)11.118.18.842.20.0%0.0%0.2%15.2%
17Genoa (6-13-7, 25 pts)9.817.810.439.70.0%0.0%0.0%31.4%

Predictions Methodology

Italy’s Serie A features twenty teams that play a home-and-home series with the other nineteen teams in the league for a total of 38 rounds of football. Currently, the top two teams that finish in the Serie A standings qualify for the Champions League Group Stage. The third place team makes Champions League Qualifying and fourth and fifth place teams earn berths to the Europa League. The teams that place in the bottom three of the table are relegated to Italy’s Serie B.