Italy Serie A Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Games for March 22, 2026

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		GoalsTotal
Goals		Best
O/U

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

More on Bet Value
More Details
Lazio
Bologna 		64.0%
16.4%		19.6%
+270
+130

2.17
1.01		3.18
o2-125
u2+106

Hellas Verona
Atalanta 		12.5%
70.4%		17.1%
+750
-246

0.92
2.42		3.34
o2½-112
u2½-105

Inter
Fiorentina 		62.9%
16.2%		20.8%
-145
+376

2.00
0.91		2.91
o2¾+100
u2¾-120

Games for Mar 21, 2026
Games for Mar 23, 2026

Completed Games

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		Final
Goals		Sportsbook
Log Loss		DRatings
Log Loss
Milan
Lazio		35.6%
37.6%		26.8%
-122
+383
-120
+365
0
1		-1.60714-1.57296-0.97891
Bologna
Sassuolo		23.6%
54.2%		22.2%
+205
+152
+215
+144
1
0		-1.14429-1.18365-1.44498
Genoa
Hellas Verona		25.3%
49.5%		25.2%
+144
+245
+142
+235
2
0		-0.92447-0.92786-1.37496
Juventus
Udinese		69.8%
11.4%		18.8%
-183
+580
-190
+555
1
0		-0.46455-0.46778-0.36010
Atalanta
Inter		28.6%
47.7%		23.7%
+525
-190
+495
-190
1
1		-1.54952-1.54853-1.43889
Sassuolo
Lazio		18.1%
61.7%		20.2%
+255
+125
+241
+130
1
1		-1.21190-1.19191-1.59840
Inter
Milan		41.0%
32.6%		26.3%
+139
+227
+147
+230
0
1		-1.21439-1.22095-1.11997
Roma
Genoa		63.4%
17.0%		19.6%
+102
+362
+100
+340
1
2		-1.54943-1.51873-1.77078
Hellas Verona
Bologna		40.2%
33.0%		26.8%
+550
-163
+480
-153
2
1		-1.90589-1.79216-0.91118
Udinese
Atalanta		10.8%
73.2%		16.0%
+458
-135
+480
-145
2
2		-1.30173-1.33222-1.83214
Torino
Napoli		10.7%
73.0%		16.3%
+580
-172
+570
-175
1
2		-0.49351-0.50296-0.31446
Fiorentina
Udinese		38.2%
32.8%		29.0%
+142
+240
+140
+230
0
3		-1.25836-1.23533-1.11471
Juventus
Roma		49.0%
26.5%		24.5%
+200
+165
+196
+161
3
3		-1.15967-1.17406-1.40609
Lazio
Torino		65.7%
15.3%		19.1%
+193
+195
+198
+190
0
2		-1.11249-1.10157-1.87895
Atalanta
Sassuolo		61.0%
19.3%		19.7%
+127
+245
+122
+275
1
2		-1.27122-1.33724-1.64356
Genoa
Inter		7.2%
80.0%		12.8%
+990
-300
+925
-325
0
2		-0.30472-0.31862-0.22319
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Season Prediction Results

 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks10-1-0 (0.000)0-1.60714 
Sportsbooks10-1-0 (0.000)0-1.57296 
DRatings11-0-0 (1.000)0-0.97891
0.62823
0.59405

Season Simulation

*Through all games played on or before 06/08/20
#TeamWLTPtsWinChamps LeagueEuropa LeagueRelegation
1Juventus (20-3-3, 63 pts)26.05.86.284.155.9%100.0%0.0%0.0%
2Lazio (19-2-5, 62 pts)24.75.08.382.440.1%100.0%0.0%0.0%
3Inter (16-3-6, 54 pts)22.06.49.675.74.0%97.5%2.5%0.0%
4Atalanta (14-5-6, 48 pts)19.58.89.768.20.0%80.7%18.1%0.0%
5Roma (13-7-6, 45 pts)17.810.89.462.70.0%18.4%74.2%0.0%
6Napoli (11-9-6, 39 pts)15.612.99.556.30.0%1.9%46.3%0.0%
7Milan (10-10-6, 36 pts)14.214.49.452.10.0%0.3%10.3%0.0%
8Hellas Verona (9-8-8, 35 pts)13.412.811.752.10.0%0.7%12.8%0.1%
10Bologna (9-10-7, 34 pts)12.615.010.448.20.0%0.0%2.8%0.8%
11Sassuolo (9-11-5, 32 pts)13.116.28.748.00.0%0.0%4.1%0.6%
12Cagliari (8-9-8, 32 pts)12.813.611.750.00.0%0.0%7.7%0.5%
13Fiorentina (7-10-9, 30 pts)11.514.012.547.10.0%0.0%1.3%1.0%
14Udinese (7-12-7, 28 pts)11.016.610.543.40.0%0.0%0.0%8.7%
15Torino (8-14-3, 27 pts)11.919.46.742.30.0%0.0%0.1%15.3%
16Sampdoria (7-13-5, 26 pts)11.118.18.842.20.0%0.0%0.2%15.2%
17Genoa (6-13-7, 25 pts)9.817.810.439.70.0%0.0%0.0%31.4%

Predictions Methodology

Italy’s Serie A features twenty teams that play a home-and-home series with the other nineteen teams in the league for a total of 38 rounds of football. Currently, the top two teams that finish in the Serie A standings qualify for the Champions League Group Stage. The third place team makes Champions League Qualifying and fourth and fifth place teams earn berths to the Europa League. The teams that place in the bottom three of the table are relegated to Italy’s Serie B.