MLB Baseball Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Games for September 19, 2024

TimeTeamsPitchersWinBest
ML
Best
Spread
RunsTotal
Runs
Best
O/U

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

More on Bet Value
More Details
New York Yankees (69-52)
Seattle Mariners (65-56)
Clarke Schmidt
Logan Gilbert
52.5%
47.5%
+108
-118
+106
-114
+1½-210
-1½+180

5.26
4.99
10.25
o7-120
u7+105
o7-120
u7+105
Los Angeles Dodgers (75-46)
Miami Marlins (51-70)
Jack Flaherty
Edward Cabrera
63.9%
36.1%
-190
+174
-197
+185
-1½-120
+1½+100
-1½-120
+1½+105
4.92
3.45
8.37
o8-113
u8-105
o8-115
u8+100
Boston Red Sox (69-54)
Tampa Bay Rays (74-47)
Brayan Bello
Zack Littell
45.1%
54.9%
-106
-104
-105
-102

+1½-220
-1½+200
4.47
4.99
9.46
o8-110
u8-110
o8-105
u8-115
Philadelphia Phillies (61-59)
New York Mets (60-60)
Taijuan Walker
Luis Severino
47.2%
52.8%
+122
-133
+122
-130
+1½-170
-1½+158
+1½-175
-1½+156
4.25
4.54
8.79
o8-113
u8+100
o8-115
u8+100
Pittsburgh Pirates (42-79)
St. Louis Cardinals (61-58)
Luis Ortiz
Erick Fedde
39.0%
61.0%
+129
-140
+129
-138
+1½-168
-1½+148
+1½-170
-1½+150
3.87
5.03
8.90
o8-120
u8+105
o8-120
u8+105
Arizona Diamondbacks (40-81)
Milwaukee Brewers (74-47)
Brandon Pfaadt
Tobias Myers
34.3%
65.7%
-114
+104
-112
+105
-1½+145
+1½-165
-1½+145
+1½-160
3.42
5.05
8.47
o8½+100
u8+100
o8-115
u8-105
Washington Nationals (52-68)
Chicago Cubs (54-69)
Patrick Corbin
Javier Assad
50.0%
50.0%
+149
-163
+151
-157
+1½-140
-1½+125
+1½-140
-1½+125
4.62
4.63
9.25
o9+100
u8½+102
o8½-115
u8½+100
Overall Bet Value Active
Overall Bet Value Active
Los Angeles Angels (61-61)
Houston Astros (70-50)
Jose Suarez
Yusei Kikuchi
36.5%
63.5%
+250
-285
+264
-300
+1½+117
-1½-135
+1½+125
-1½-133
4.29
5.71
10.00
o8½-105
u8½-110
o8½+105
u8+100
Games for Sep 18, 2024

Games In Progress

TimeTeamsOrig.
Win %
Closing
ML
Closing
Spread
Orig. Total
Runs
Closing
O/U
PeriodCurrent
Score
San Francisco Giants (78-43)
Baltimore Orioles (38-81)
59.9%
40.1%
+145
-158
+144
-154
+1½-150
-1½+130
+1½-160
-1½+141
9.01
o7-116
u7+100
o7½+105
u7+105
6th
BOT
2
3
Atlanta Braves (65-56)
Cincinnati Reds (65-57)
49.1%
50.9%
-210
+190
-200
+190
-1½-140
+1½+120
-1½-135
+1½+117
8.99
o9-105
u9-110
o9+105
u9-115
5th
BOT
8
2
Minnesota Twins (54-67)
Cleveland Indians (58-61)
47.8%
52.2%
-112
+102
-105
+101

+1½-216
-1½+195
9.44
o8-105
u8-113
o8+105
u8-105
5th
BOT
2
1
Toronto Blue Jays (63-56)
Texas Rangers (42-78)
62.3%
37.7%
+118
-128
+120
-125
+1½-180
-1½+163
+1½-185
-1½+170
10.12
o7½+100
u7½-115
o7½+100
u7½-120
1st
TOP
0
0

Completed Games

TimeTeamsWinBest
ML
Best
Spread
Final
Runs
Sportsbook
Log Loss
DRatings
Log Loss
New York Yankees
Seattle Mariners
54.8%
45.2%
-113
+103
-113
+105
-1½+150
+1½-164
-1½+146
+1½-160
2
1
-0.65676-0.65204-0.60075
Toronto Blue Jays
Texas Rangers
59.6%
40.4%
-103
-107
+102
-108
+1½-205
-1½+185
+1½-210
-1½+190
0
2
-0.68389-0.66959-0.90513
Pittsburgh Pirates
St. Louis Cardinals
38.9%
61.1%
+187
-207
+181
-196
+1½-110
-1½-109
+1½-115
-1½+102
5
10
-0.41658-0.43012-0.49328
Detroit Tigers
Kansas City Royals
44.1%
55.9%
-134
+123
-130
+122
-1½+122
+1½-135
-1½+125
+1½-140
4
2
-0.57834-0.58609-0.81778
Philadelphia Phillies
Milwaukee Brewers
53.1%
46.9%
-103
-107
+100
-105
+1½-205
-1½+190
+1½-210
-1½+190
1
2
-0.68389-0.68116-0.75734
Washington Nationals
New York Mets
43.4%
56.6%
+156
-170
+154
-165
+1½-142
-1½+130
+1½-145
-1½+132
0
10
-0.48268-0.48999-0.56951
Boston Red Sox
Tampa Bay Rays
46.3%
53.7%
-102
-108
+105
-107
+1½-210
-1½+185
+1½-210
-1½+186
2
1
-0.70719-0.72256-0.76927
Houston Astros
San Diego Padres
50.8%
49.2%
-104
-106
-104
-105

-1½+165
+1½-180
0
4
-0.68852-0.69081-0.70974
Minnesota Twins
Cleveland Indians
47.8%
52.2%
+118
-128
+120
-130
+1½-190
-1½+170
+1½-185
-1½+173
4
5
-0.59724-0.59012-0.64926
Atlanta Braves
Cincinnati Reds
49.1%
50.9%
-132
+121
-127
+126
-1½+120
+1½-134
-1½+127
+1½-130
7
1
-0.58515-0.58272-0.71186
Los Angeles Dodgers
Miami Marlins
60.9%
39.1%
-200
+182
-196
+181
-1½-130
+1½+110
-1½-120
+1½+110
8
4
-0.42652-0.43012-0.49535
San Francisco Giants
Baltimore Orioles
61.9%
38.1%
+149
-163
+148
-155
+1½-143
-1½+130
+1½-150
-1½+134
5
3
-0.93344-0.91925-0.47905
Chicago White Sox
Los Angeles Angels
51.7%
48.3%
+125
-136
+130
-132
+1½-162
-1½+150
+1½-165
-1½+155
3
4
-0.57167-0.56768-0.72869
Arizona Diamondbacks
Colorado Rockies
42.0%
58.0%
-176
+161
-165
+155
-1½-120
+1½+102
-1½-112
+1½+105
9
4
-0.47053-0.48848-0.86707
Oakland Athletics
Chicago Cubs
53.9%
46.1%
+160
-175
+160
-173
+1½-137
-1½+120
+1½-135
-1½+122
5
3
-0.97625-0.97366-0.61765
Houston Astros
San Diego Padres
51.2%
48.8%
+109
-119
+108
-114
+1½-205
-1½+175
+1½-205
-1½+190
4
3
-0.75877-0.74575-0.66888
Load More Games

Season Prediction Results

 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks1412-2 (0.857)0-0.60589 
Sportsbooks1412-2 (0.857)0-0.60720 
DRatings146-8 (0.429)0-0.68243
-0.07655
-0.07524

Season Simulation

 Regular SeasonPostseason
#TeamWLMake PlayoffsWin DivisionWin Conf.Conf. Champ.World Series

Predictions Methodology

Here we use computer estimates from the Inference Index to predict future Major League baseball games. We use previous score and pitcher data to best attempt to estimate the results of each game. The predictions do not account for injuries, or any other factors that may cause the outcome to be swayed in one direction or another. There is a lot of randomness, particularly in baseball, so there will always be some error in the prediction.

Beginning in the 2014 season, we have begun including probable starting pitcher into the calculation. If there is a late change in the starting pitcher for a team and it is not reflected below then the projections will not be an accurate assessment on the game. The current projection system for Major League Baseball games is at Level 3, our highest level of analysis. The Predictor should be used for entertainment purposes only.