MLB Baseball Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Games for September 19, 2024

TimeTeamsPitchersWinBest
ML
Best
Spread
RunsTotal
Runs
Best
O/U

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

More on Bet Value
More Details
Boston Red Sox (69-54)
Tampa Bay Rays (74-47)
Brayan Bello
Zack Littell
45.1%
54.9%
-109
-101
-110
+100
-1½+155
+1½-175
+1½-230
-1½+200
4.47
4.99
9.46
o8-105
u8-115
o8-105
u8-115
Philadelphia Phillies (61-59)
New York Mets (60-60)
Taijuan Walker
Luis Severino
47.2%
52.8%
+124
-135
+125
-133
+1½-160
-1½+145
+1½-170
-1½+155
4.25
4.54
8.79
o8-115
u8-101
o8-115
u8+100
Pittsburgh Pirates (42-79)
St. Louis Cardinals (61-58)
Luis Ortiz
Erick Fedde
39.0%
61.0%
+131
-143
+135
-138
+1½-166
-1½+146
+1½-170
-1½+150
3.87
5.03
8.90
o8½-105
u8+106
o8-120
u8+105
Volatility Bet Value Active
Arizona Diamondbacks (40-81)
Milwaukee Brewers (74-47)
Brandon Pfaadt
Tobias Myers
34.3%
65.7%
-115
+105
-115
+109
-1½+143
+1½-160
-1½+145
+1½-155
3.42
5.05
8.47
o8½-105
u8½-105
o8½-115
u8½-105
Washington Nationals (52-68)
Chicago Cubs (54-69)
Patrick Corbin
Javier Assad
50.0%
50.0%
+160
-175
+160
-168
+1½-133
-1½+125
+1½-135
-1½+125
4.62
4.63
9.25
o8½-115
u8½+100
o8½-115
u8½+100
Overall Bet Value Active
Overall Bet Value Active
Los Angeles Angels (61-61)
Houston Astros (70-50)
Jose Suarez
Yusei Kikuchi
36.5%
63.5%
+240
-273
+250
-274
+1½+110
-1½-127
+1½+112
-1½-130
4.29
5.71
10.00
o8-105
u8-110
o8-105
u8-110
Overall Bet Value Active
Overall Bet Value Active
Games for Sep 18, 2024

Games In Progress

TimeTeamsOrig.
Win %
Closing
ML
Closing
Spread
Orig. Total
Runs
Closing
O/U
PeriodCurrent
Score
New York Yankees (69-52)
Seattle Mariners (65-56)
52.5%
47.5%
+106
-116
+110
-115
+1½-210
-1½+180

10.25
o7-115
u7+105
o7-120
u7+105
8th
BOT
2
3
Los Angeles Dodgers (75-46)
Miami Marlins (51-70)
63.9%
36.1%
-195
+178
-197
+185
-1½-125
+1½+105
-1½-120
+1½+105
8.37
o8-115
u8-105
o8-115
u8+100
6th
BOT
9
3

Completed Games

TimeTeamsWinBest
ML
Best
Spread
Final
Runs
Sportsbook
Log Loss
DRatings
Log Loss
Chicago White Sox
Los Angeles Angels
51.7%
48.3%
+125
-136
+130
-132
+1½-162
-1½+150
+1½-165
-1½+155
3
4
-0.57167-0.56768-0.72869
Arizona Diamondbacks
Colorado Rockies
42.0%
58.0%
-176
+161
-165
+155
-1½-120
+1½+102
-1½-112
+1½+105
9
4
-0.47053-0.48848-0.86707
Oakland Athletics
Chicago Cubs
53.9%
46.1%
+160
-175
+160
-173
+1½-137
-1½+120
+1½-135
-1½+122
5
3
-0.97625-0.97366-0.61765
Houston Astros
San Diego Padres
51.2%
48.8%
+109
-119
+108
-114
+1½-205
-1½+175
+1½-205
-1½+190
4
3
-0.75877-0.74575-0.66888
New York Yankees
Seattle Mariners
54.8%
45.2%
-107
-103
-105
-103
-1½+160
+1½-175
-1½+160
+1½-175
11
2
-0.68389-0.68844-0.60075
Chicago White Sox
Los Angeles Angels
51.1%
48.9%
+130
-142
+133
-142
+1½-157
-1½+140
+1½-155
-1½+141
0
5
-0.55443-0.54894-0.71554
Arizona Diamondbacks
Colorado Rockies
40.4%
59.6%
-132
+121
-129
+125
-1½+105
+1½-125
-1½+110
+1½-125
2
8
-0.81423-0.81867-0.51678
Toronto Blue Jays
Texas Rangers
59.6%
40.4%
+115
-125
+119
-125
+1½-180
-1½+165
+1½-185
-1½+165
8
13
-0.60825-0.59989-0.90513
Pittsburgh Pirates
St. Louis Cardinals
38.9%
61.1%
+139
-152
+140
-145
+1½-156
-1½+136
+1½-160
-1½+145
1
3
-0.52690-0.53299-0.49328
Oakland Athletics
Chicago Cubs
53.9%
46.1%
+132
-144
+136
-143
+1½-160
-1½+140
+1½-155
-1½+140
4
3
-0.86254-0.87079-0.61765
Detroit Tigers
Kansas City Royals
44.1%
55.9%
+140
-153
+145
-154
+1½-150
-1½+133
+1½-145
-1½+131
3
1
-0.89664-0.91046-0.81778
Philadelphia Phillies
Milwaukee Brewers
42.7%
57.3%
-136
+125
-133
+127
-1½+120
+1½-140
-1½+125
+1½-140
5
1
-0.57167-0.57197-0.85114
Washington Nationals
New York Mets
43.4%
56.6%
+156
-170
+153
-157
+1½-140
-1½+125
+1½-145
-1½+127
1
10
-0.48268-0.49896-0.56951
Boston Red Sox
Tampa Bay Rays
38.9%
61.1%
-127
+117
-130
+123
-1½+132
+1½-150
-1½+130
+1½-148
3
8
-0.79483-0.81556-0.49295
Minnesota Twins
Cleveland Indians
47.8%
52.2%
+121
-132
+126
-132
+1½-172
-1½+152
+1½-175
-1½+155
4
1
-0.81423-0.82675-0.73904
Los Angeles Dodgers
Miami Marlins
60.9%
39.1%
-225
+207
-215
+203
-1½-140
+1½+126
-1½-138
+1½+120
9
11
-1.13956-1.12107-0.93997
Load More Games

Season Prediction Results

 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks118-3 (0.727)0-0.60518 
Sportsbooks118-3 (0.727)0-0.60647 
DRatings115-6 (0.455)0-0.69650
-0.09132
-0.09003

Season Simulation

 Regular SeasonPostseason
#TeamWLMake PlayoffsWin DivisionWin Conf.Conf. Champ.World Series

Predictions Methodology

Here we use computer estimates from the Inference Index to predict future Major League baseball games. We use previous score and pitcher data to best attempt to estimate the results of each game. The predictions do not account for injuries, or any other factors that may cause the outcome to be swayed in one direction or another. There is a lot of randomness, particularly in baseball, so there will always be some error in the prediction.

Beginning in the 2014 season, we have begun including probable starting pitcher into the calculation. If there is a late change in the starting pitcher for a team and it is not reflected below then the projections will not be an accurate assessment on the game. The current projection system for Major League Baseball games is at Level 3, our highest level of analysis. The Predictor should be used for entertainment purposes only.