MLB Baseball Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Games for September 20, 2024

TimeTeamsPitchersWinBest
ML
Best
Spread
RunsTotal
Runs
Best
O/U

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

More on Bet Value
More Details
Washington Nationals (52-68)
Chicago Cubs (54-69)
Trevor Williams
Jameson Taillon
47.7%
52.3%
+148
-162
+151
-165


4.87
5.11
9.98


Pittsburgh Pirates (42-79)
Cincinnati Reds (65-57)
Undecided Undecided
Nick Martinez
36.4%
63.6%




3.83
5.26
9.09


Toronto Blue Jays (63-56)
Tampa Bay Rays (74-47)
Jose Berrios
Undecided Undecided
46.1%
53.9%




4.30
4.71
9.01


Detroit Tigers (58-64)
Baltimore Orioles (38-81)
Undecided Undecided
Corbin Burnes
46.5%
53.5%




4.28
4.65
8.93


Philadelphia Phillies (61-59)
New York Mets (60-60)
Cristopher Sanchez
David Peterson
47.3%
52.7%
-105
-105
-105
-105
+1½-235
-1½+200
+1½-240
-1½+200
4.15
4.44
8.59
o7½+103
u7½-120
o7½+100
u7½-120
Atlanta Braves (65-56)
Miami Marlins (51-70)
Charlie Morton
Valente Bellozo
54.0%
46.0%
-195
+178
-190
+172
-1½-118
+1½+100
-1½-115
+1½-105
4.60
4.18
8.78
o8½-110
u8½-105
o8½-120
u8½+100
Minnesota Twins (54-67)
Boston Red Sox (69-54)
David Festa
Undecided Undecided
41.5%
58.5%




4.51
5.40
9.91


Seattle Mariners (65-56)
Texas Rangers (42-78)
George Kirby
Jacob deGrom
52.2%
47.8%
+102
-112
+102
-112
+1½-220
-1½+190
+1½-220
-1½+190
5.39
5.17
10.56
o7½+100
u7½-115
o7½+100
u7½-120
Arizona Diamondbacks (40-81)
Milwaukee Brewers (74-47)
Zac Gallen
Colin Rea
39.0%
61.0%
-119
+109



3.31
4.46
7.77
o8+100
u8-120

Los Angeles Angels (61-61)
Houston Astros (70-50)
Tyler Anderson
Justin Verlander
32.3%
67.7%
+220
-248
+213
-240
+1½-105
-1½-115
+1½-105
-1½-115
3.01
4.82
7.83
o8½+103
u8+100
o8-120
u8+100
San Francisco Giants (78-43)
Kansas City Royals (52-67)
Mason Black
Michael Wacha
57.3%
42.7%
+150
-164
+147
-161
+1½-145
-1½+125
+1½-150
-1½+130
4.62
3.86
8.48
o8-120
u8½-115
o8-120
u8+100
Cleveland Indians (58-61)
St. Louis Cardinals (61-58)
Ben Lively
Kyle Gibson
49.0%
51.0%
+100
-110
+100
-110
+1½-215
-1½+185
+1½-215
-1½+185
4.47
4.58
9.05
o8-110
u8-105
o8-115
u8-105
New York Yankees (69-52)
Oakland Athletics (68-53)
Gerrit Cole
J.T. Ginn
54.2%
45.8%
-185
+169
-190
+172
-1½-110
+1½-110
-1½-110
+1½-110
4.68
4.23
8.91
o8-105
u8-115
o8-105
u8-115
Chicago White Sox (71-50)
San Diego Padres (67-56)
Garrett Crochet
Joe Musgrove
46.4%
53.6%
+204
-228
+213
-240
+1½-115
-1½-105
+1½-110
-1½-110
4.27
4.65
8.92
o7-120
u7+100
o7-120
u7+100
Colorado Rockies (55-66)
Los Angeles Dodgers (75-46)
Kyle Freeland
Undecided Undecided
33.0%
67.0%




4.26
6.02
10.28


Games for Sep 19, 2024
Games for Sep 21, 2024

Games In Progress

TimeTeamsOrig.
Win %
Closing
ML
Closing
Spread
Orig. Total
Runs
Closing
O/U
PeriodCurrent
Score
Boston Red Sox (69-54)
Tampa Bay Rays (74-47)
45.1%
54.9%
-109
-101
-110
+100
-1½+155
+1½-175
+1½-230
-1½+200
9.46
o8-105
u8-115
o8-105
u8-115
8th
TOP
0
2
Philadelphia Phillies (61-59)
New York Mets (60-60)
47.2%
52.8%
+126
-137
+125
-133
+1½-165
-1½+145
+1½-170
-1½+155
8.79
o8-119
u8+100
o8-115
u8½-115
4th
BOT
3
9
Pittsburgh Pirates (42-79)
St. Louis Cardinals (61-58)
39.0%
61.0%
+131
-143
+140
-140
+1½-166
-1½+146
+1½-155
-1½+150
8.90
o8½-105
u8+104
o8-120
u8+105
6th
BOT
1
1
Arizona Diamondbacks (40-81)
Milwaukee Brewers (74-47)
34.3%
65.7%
-119
+109
-117
+109
-1½+140
+1½-160
-1½+145
+1½-155
8.47
o9-101
u8½+100
o8½-115
u8½+100
5th
TOP
2
0
Washington Nationals (52-68)
Chicago Cubs (54-69)
50.0%
50.0%
+161
-176
+165
-175
+1½-133
-1½+120
+1½-130
-1½+115
9.22
o8½-110
u8½-105
o8½-115
u8½+100
3rd
BOT
3
1
Los Angeles Angels (61-61)
Houston Astros (70-50)
36.5%
63.5%
+240
-273
+250
-276
+1½+110
-1½-127
+1½+112
-1½-130
10.00
o8-105
u8-105
o8+100
u8-110
2nd
TOP
1
0

Completed Games

TimeTeamsWinBest
ML
Best
Spread
Final
Runs
Sportsbook
Log Loss
DRatings
Log Loss
Minnesota Twins
Cleveland Indians
47.8%
52.2%
+121
-132
+126
-132
+1½-172
-1½+152
+1½-175
-1½+155
4
1
-0.81423-0.82675-0.73904
Los Angeles Dodgers
Miami Marlins
60.9%
39.1%
-225
+207
-215
+203
-1½-140
+1½+126
-1½-138
+1½+120
9
11
-1.13956-1.12107-0.93997
Atlanta Braves
Cincinnati Reds
49.1%
50.9%
-140
+129
-140
+130
-1½+115
+1½-135
-1½+115
+1½-130
5
6
-0.84838-0.85085-0.67478
San Francisco Giants
Baltimore Orioles
61.5%
38.5%
-116
+106
-111
+111
-1½+145
+1½-165
-1½+150
+1½-160
10
0
-0.64392-0.64232-0.48565
Houston Astros
San Diego Padres
44.6%
55.4%
+105
-115
+105
-110
+1½-195
-1½+170
+1½-200
-1½+180
1
3
-0.64814-0.65817-0.59018
Chicago White Sox
Los Angeles Angels
51.7%
48.3%
+162
-173
+174
-185
+1½-120
-1½+110
+1½-125
-1½+110
8
4
-0.97843-1.02196-0.65882
Arizona Diamondbacks
Colorado Rockies
42.3%
57.7%
-170
+156
-165
+155
-1½-120
+1½+110
-1½-118
+1½+100
2
3
-0.96006-0.95078-0.55043
Pittsburgh Pirates
St. Louis Cardinals
38.9%
61.1%
-127
+117
-123
+118
-1½+137
+1½-150
-1½+135
+1½-145
0
4
-0.79483-0.78955-0.49328
Oakland Athletics
Chicago Cubs
53.9%
46.1%
+177
-194
+180
-190
+1½-122
-1½+105
+1½-125
-1½+110
2
9
-0.43638-0.43510-0.77481
Detroit Tigers
Kansas City Royals
45.7%
54.3%
+115
-125
+122
-127
+1½-170
-1½+151
+1½-170
-1½+150
7
6
-0.78592-0.80737-0.78375
Philadelphia Phillies
Milwaukee Brewers
41.5%
58.5%
-106
-104
-103
-103
-1½+158
+1½-175
-1½+160
+1½-175
2
6
-0.69780-0.69315-0.53575
Los Angeles Dodgers
Atlanta Braves
45.8%
54.2%
-131
+121
-128
+118
-1½+130
+1½-145
-1½+134
+1½-150
9
0
-0.58663-0.59724-0.77999
Washington Nationals
New York Mets
42.8%
57.2%
+174
-190
+180
-185
+1½-120
-1½+105
+1½-125
-1½+115
1
2
-0.44279-0.43838-0.55797
Minnesota Twins
Cleveland Indians
47.8%
52.2%
-118
+108
-115
+110
-1½+145
+1½-165
-1½+150
+1½-165
3
4
-0.75417-0.75294-0.64926
Los Angeles Dodgers
Atlanta Braves
53.7%
46.3%
-109
-101
-108
+101


9
2
-0.67472-0.67201-0.62144
Texas Rangers
Seattle Mariners
43.3%
56.7%
+144
-157
+145
-150
+1½-159
-1½+145
+1½-165
-1½+146
0
7
-0.51336-0.51896-0.56674
Load More Games

Season Prediction Results

 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks75-2 (0.714)0-0.59754 
Sportsbooks75-2 (0.714)0-0.59328 
DRatings74-3 (0.571)0-0.64887
-0.05133
-0.05559

Season Simulation

 Regular SeasonPostseason
#TeamWLMake PlayoffsWin DivisionWin Conf.Conf. Champ.World Series

Predictions Methodology

Here we use computer estimates from the Inference Index to predict future Major League baseball games. We use previous score and pitcher data to best attempt to estimate the results of each game. The predictions do not account for injuries, or any other factors that may cause the outcome to be swayed in one direction or another. There is a lot of randomness, particularly in baseball, so there will always be some error in the prediction.

Beginning in the 2014 season, we have begun including probable starting pitcher into the calculation. If there is a late change in the starting pitcher for a team and it is not reflected below then the projections will not be an accurate assessment on the game. The current projection system for Major League Baseball games is at Level 3, our highest level of analysis. The Predictor should be used for entertainment purposes only.