MLB Baseball Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Games for September 20, 2024

TimeTeamsPitchersWinBest
ML
Best
Spread
RunsTotal
Runs
Best
O/U

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

More on Bet Value
More Details
Washington Nationals (52-68)
Chicago Cubs (54-69)
Trevor Williams
Jameson Taillon
47.7%
52.3%
+156
-168
+152
-163

+1½-135
-1½+117
4.87
5.11
9.98

o9-105
u9-115
Pittsburgh Pirates (42-79)
Cincinnati Reds (65-57)
Undecided Undecided
Nick Martinez
36.4%
63.6%
+113
-123
+115
-125

+1½-178
-1½+158
3.83
5.26
9.09
o9-105
u9-115
o9-105
u9-115
Toronto Blue Jays (63-56)
Tampa Bay Rays (74-47)
Jose Berrios
Undecided Undecided
46.1%
53.9%
+100
-110
-102
-108

-1½+160
+1½-180
4.30
4.71
9.01
o7½-115
u7½-105
o7½-115
u7½-105
Detroit Tigers (58-64)
Baltimore Orioles (38-81)
Undecided Undecided
Corbin Burnes
46.5%
53.5%




4.28
4.65
8.93


Philadelphia Phillies (61-59)
New York Mets (60-60)
Cristopher Sanchez
David Peterson
47.3%
52.7%
-108
-102
-104
-105
+1½-235
-1½+200
+1½-225
-1½+200
4.15
4.44
8.59
o7½-105
u7½-112
o7½+105
u7½-120
Atlanta Braves (65-56)
Miami Marlins (51-70)
Charlie Morton
Valente Bellozo
54.0%
46.0%
-195
+178
-190
+180
-1½-118
+1½+105
-1½-115
+1½+102
4.60
4.18
8.78
o8½-110
u8½-105
o8½-115
u8½+100
Minnesota Twins (54-67)
Boston Red Sox (69-54)
David Festa
Undecided Undecided
41.5%
58.5%
-105
-105
-105
-105

-1½+150
+1½-170
4.51
5.40
9.91
o9-106
u9-114
o9-110
u9-110
Seattle Mariners (65-56)
Texas Rangers (42-78)
George Kirby
Jacob deGrom
52.2%
47.8%
+108
-118
+104
-112
+1½-215
-1½+185
+1½-213
-1½+190
5.39
5.17
10.56
o7-118
u7+100
o7-105
u7½-120
Volatility Bet Value Active
Arizona Diamondbacks (40-81)
Milwaukee Brewers (74-47)
Zac Gallen
Colin Rea
39.0%
61.0%
-123
+113
-118
+115
-1½+132
+1½-152
-1½+140
+1½-156
3.31
4.46
7.77
o7½-120
u7½+100
o7½-120
u8-115
Volatility Bet Value Active
Los Angeles Angels (61-61)
Houston Astros (70-50)
Tyler Anderson
Justin Verlander
32.3%
67.7%
+218
-245
+227
-240
+1½-105
-1½-115
+1½+102
-1½-115
3.01
4.82
7.83
o8-117
u8+100
o8½+100
u8+100
San Francisco Giants (78-43)
Kansas City Royals (52-67)
Mason Black
Michael Wacha
57.3%
42.7%
+145
-158
+152
-154
+1½-150
-1½+130
+1½-145
-1½+131
4.62
3.86
8.48
o8-120
u8½-115
o8½+100
u8+100
Volatility Bet Value Active
Cleveland Indians (58-61)
St. Louis Cardinals (61-58)
Ben Lively
Kyle Gibson
49.0%
51.0%
+102
-112
+100
-110
+1½-215
-1½+185
+1½-211
-1½+185
4.47
4.58
9.05
o8-115
u8½-115
o8-115
u8-105
New York Yankees (69-52)
Oakland Athletics (68-53)
Gerrit Cole
J.T. Ginn
54.2%
45.8%
-185
+169
-184
+172
-1½-110
+1½-110
-1½-110
+1½-106
4.68
4.23
8.91
o8-115
u8-105
o8-105
u8-115
Chicago White Sox (71-50)
San Diego Padres (67-56)
Garrett Crochet
Joe Musgrove
46.4%
53.6%
+204
-228
+213
-230
+1½-113
-1½+100
+1½-110
-1½-103
4.27
4.65
8.92
o7-110
u7-105
o7-105
u7+100
Colorado Rockies (55-66)
Los Angeles Dodgers (75-46)
Kyle Freeland
Undecided Undecided
33.0%
67.0%




4.26
6.02
10.28


Games for Sep 19, 2024
Games for Sep 21, 2024

Completed Games

TimeTeamsWinBest
ML
Best
Spread
Final
Runs
Sportsbook
Log Loss
DRatings
Log Loss
Philadelphia Phillies
Milwaukee Brewers
41.5%
58.5%
-106
-104
-103
-103
-1½+158
+1½-175
-1½+160
+1½-175
2
6
-0.69780-0.69315-0.53575
Los Angeles Dodgers
Atlanta Braves
45.8%
54.2%
-131
+121
-128
+118
-1½+130
+1½-145
-1½+134
+1½-150
9
0
-0.58663-0.59724-0.77999
Washington Nationals
New York Mets
42.8%
57.2%
+174
-190
+180
-185
+1½-120
-1½+105
+1½-125
-1½+115
1
2
-0.44279-0.43838-0.55797
Minnesota Twins
Cleveland Indians
47.8%
52.2%
-118
+108
-115
+110
-1½+145
+1½-165
-1½+150
+1½-165
3
4
-0.75417-0.75294-0.64926
Los Angeles Dodgers
Atlanta Braves
53.7%
46.3%
-109
-101
-108
+101


9
2
-0.67472-0.67201-0.62144
Texas Rangers
Seattle Mariners
43.3%
56.7%
+144
-157
+145
-150
+1½-159
-1½+145
+1½-165
-1½+146
0
7
-0.51336-0.51896-0.56674
Milwaukee Brewers
Arizona Diamondbacks
54.8%
45.2%
+145
-158
+150
-150
+1½-150
-1½+130
+1½-147
-1½+135
10
11
-0.51073-0.51083-0.79474
Houston Astros
Los Angeles Angels
53.8%
46.2%
-190
+174
-196
+181
-1½-125
+1½+106
-1½-120
+1½+115
6
4
-0.44279-0.43012-0.62040
San Diego Padres
San Francisco Giants
46.6%
53.4%
-112
+102
-107
-102
-1½+145
+1½-163
-1½+150
+1½-165
4
3
-0.66116-0.68152-0.76338
Chicago Cubs
Colorado Rockies
49.5%
50.5%
-132
+121
-130
+120
-1½+110
+1½-130
-1½+115
+1½-129
6
2
-0.58515-0.59012-0.70289
Oakland Athletics
Chicago White Sox
45.6%
54.4%
-158
+145
-160
+152
-1½-107
+1½-110
-1½-105
+1½-113
3
4
-0.91644-0.93639-0.60906
Tampa Bay Rays
Cleveland Indians
54.8%
45.2%
+111
-121
+111
-114
+1½-185
-1½+165
+1½-185
-1½+180
0
2
-0.62358-0.63639-0.79465
St. Louis Cardinals
Toronto Blue Jays
40.4%
59.6%
+106
-116
+112
-120
+1½-190
-1½+170
+1½-185
-1½+170
2
3
-0.64392-0.62315-0.51689
Kansas City Royals
Pittsburgh Pirates
53.8%
46.2%
-103
-107
+101
-106
+1½-214
-1½+185
+1½-220
-1½+195
3
4
-0.68389-0.67645-0.77135
Boston Red Sox
New York Yankees
44.8%
55.2%
+153
-167
+155
-162
+1½-138
-1½+125
+1½-137
-1½+125
2
5
-0.48977-0.49117-0.59468
Miami Marlins
Washington Nationals
45.8%
54.2%
+151
-165
+155
-165
+1½-140
-1½+124
+1½-140
-1½+125
3
4
-0.49462-0.48848-0.61194
Load More Games

Season Prediction Results

 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks128-4 (0.667)0-0.59205 
Sportsbooks128-4 (0.667)0-0.59154 
DRatings127-5 (0.583)0-0.69487
-0.10282
-0.10333

Season Simulation

 Regular SeasonPostseason
#TeamWLMake PlayoffsWin DivisionWin Conf.Conf. Champ.World Series

Predictions Methodology

Here we use computer estimates from the Inference Index to predict future Major League baseball games. We use previous score and pitcher data to best attempt to estimate the results of each game. The predictions do not account for injuries, or any other factors that may cause the outcome to be swayed in one direction or another. There is a lot of randomness, particularly in baseball, so there will always be some error in the prediction.

Beginning in the 2014 season, we have begun including probable starting pitcher into the calculation. If there is a late change in the starting pitcher for a team and it is not reflected below then the projections will not be an accurate assessment on the game. The current projection system for Major League Baseball games is at Level 3, our highest level of analysis. The Predictor should be used for entertainment purposes only.