MLB Baseball Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Games for September 20, 2024

TimeTeamsPitchersWinBest
ML
Best
Spread
RunsTotal
Runs
Best
O/U

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

More on Bet Value
More Details
Washington Nationals (52-68)
Chicago Cubs (54-69)
Trevor Williams
Jameson Taillon
47.7%
52.3%
+156
-168
+152
-163

+1½-135
-1½+117
4.92
5.17
10.09

o9-105
u9-115
Pittsburgh Pirates (42-79)
Cincinnati Reds (65-57)
Mitch Keller
Nick Martinez
35.1%
64.9%
+108
-118
+115
-123

+1½-175
-1½+170
3.86
5.42
9.28
o9-105
u9-115
o9+100
u9-115
Volatility Bet Value Active
Toronto Blue Jays (63-56)
Tampa Bay Rays (74-47)
Jose Berrios
Tyler Alexander
46.1%
53.9%
+100
-110
+100
-108

-1½+175
+1½-180
4.30
4.71
9.01
o7½-115
u7½-105
o7½-115
u7½-105
Volatility Bet Value Active
Detroit Tigers (58-64)
Baltimore Orioles (38-81)
Keider Montero
Corbin Burnes
46.5%
53.5%




4.28
4.65
8.93


Philadelphia Phillies (61-59)
New York Mets (60-60)
Cristopher Sanchez
David Peterson
47.3%
52.7%
-104
-106
-104
-105
+1½-235
-1½+200
+1½-225
-1½+200
4.09
4.36
8.45
o7½+100
u7½-115
o7½+100
u7½-120
Atlanta Braves (65-56)
Miami Marlins (51-70)
Charlie Morton
Valente Bellozo
54.0%
46.0%
-192
+175
-199
+181
-1½-118
+1½+105
-1½-115
+1½+102
4.60
4.18
8.78
o8½-110
u8½+100
o8½-115
u8½+100
Minnesota Twins (54-67)
Boston Red Sox (69-54)
David Festa
Richard Fitts
41.5%
58.5%
-113
+103
-105
-105

-1½+150
+1½-170
4.56
5.45
10.01
o9-106
u9-114
o9+100
u9-115
Seattle Mariners (65-56)
Texas Rangers (42-78)
George Kirby
Jacob deGrom
52.2%
47.8%
+103
-113
+110
-114
+1½-215
-1½+185
+1½-204
-1½+185
5.39
5.17
10.56
o7-118
u7+100
o7-105
u7½-120
Volatility Bet Value Active
Arizona Diamondbacks (40-81)
Milwaukee Brewers (74-47)
Zac Gallen
Colin Rea
39.0%
61.0%
-123
+113
-120
+115
-1½+140
+1½-152
-1½+140
+1½-156
3.31
4.46
7.77
o7½-120
u8-115
o7½-120
u8-115
Los Angeles Angels (61-61)
Houston Astros (70-50)
Tyler Anderson
Justin Verlander
32.3%
67.7%
+222
-250
+227
-240
+1½-105
-1½-115
+1½+102
-1½-115
3.01
4.82
7.83
o8-117
u8+100
o8-120
u8+100
San Francisco Giants (78-43)
Kansas City Royals (52-67)
Mason Black
Michael Wacha
57.3%
42.7%
+143
-156
+147
-154
+1½-145
-1½+125
+1½-150
-1½+131
4.62
3.86
8.48
o8½+100
u8½-115
o8½+100
u8+100
Cleveland Indians (58-61)
St. Louis Cardinals (61-58)
Ben Lively
Kyle Gibson
49.0%
51.0%
+102
-112
+100
-110
+1½-215
-1½+185
+1½-211
-1½+185
4.48
4.58
9.06
o8-115
u8½-115
o8-115
u8-105
New York Yankees (69-52)
Oakland Athletics (68-53)
Gerrit Cole
J.T. Ginn
54.2%
45.8%
-185
+169
-184
+172
-1½-110
+1½+100
-1½-110
+1½-106
4.68
4.23
8.91
o8-115
u8+100
o8-115
u8-105
Chicago White Sox (71-50)
San Diego Padres (67-56)
Garrett Crochet
Joe Musgrove
46.4%
53.6%
+205
-228
+210
-225
+1½-107
-1½-110
+1½-110
-1½-103
4.27
4.65
8.92
o7-115
u7-105
o7-105
u7+100
Colorado Rockies (55-66)
Los Angeles Dodgers (75-46)
Kyle Freeland
Undecided Undecided
33.0%
67.0%




4.26
6.02
10.28


Games for Sep 19, 2024
Games for Sep 21, 2024

Completed Games

TimeTeamsWinBest
ML
Best
Spread
Final
Runs
Sportsbook
Log Loss
DRatings
Log Loss
New York Mets
Philadelphia Phillies
46.4%
53.6%
+120
-130
+118
-124
+1½-175
-1½+155
+1½-180
-1½+165
1
2
-0.59012-0.60358-0.62323
Cincinnati Reds
Minnesota Twins
49.7%
50.3%
+153
-167
+160
-169
+1½-135
-1½+125
+1½-137
-1½+120
2
9
-0.48977-0.47760-0.68790
Baltimore Orioles
Detroit Tigers
43.6%
56.4%
-108
-102
-107
+100
-1½+145
+1½-165
-1½+150
+1½-155
2
4
-0.70719-0.70991-0.57226
Texas Rangers
Seattle Mariners
41.5%
58.5%
+148
-162
+150
-160
+1½-160
-1½+145
+1½-165
-1½+150
4
5
-0.50206-0.50078-0.53556
Houston Astros
Los Angeles Angels
61.8%
38.2%
-150
+138
-148
+144
-1½+102
+1½-120
-1½+105
+1½-120
5
3
-0.53079-0.52281-0.48046
San Diego Padres
San Francisco Giants
46.6%
53.4%
-152
+139
-149
+142
-1½+107
+1½-125
-1½+110
+1½-123
8
0
-0.52690-0.52506-0.76338
Chicago Cubs
Colorado Rockies
47.2%
52.8%
-142
+130
-139
+130
-1½+100
+1½-118
-1½+102
+1½-120
5
6
-0.85426-0.84915-0.63856
Milwaukee Brewers
Arizona Diamondbacks
59.8%
40.2%
+138
-150
+140
-145
+1½-158
-1½+140
+1½-155
-1½+145
15
8
-0.88707-0.88394-0.51426
Los Angeles Dodgers
Atlanta Braves
57.1%
42.9%
+102
-112
+108
-108
+1½-212
-1½+182
+1½-200
-1½+185
1
10
-0.66116-0.65541-0.84534
Cincinnati Reds
Minnesota Twins
49.7%
50.3%
+129
-140
+136
-137
+1½-161
-1½+141
+1½-160
-1½+141
11
1
-0.84838-0.86045-0.69842
Oakland Athletics
Chicago White Sox
45.6%
54.4%
-162
+148
-160
+154
-1½-109
+1½-110
-1½-105
+1½-105
6
7
-0.92958-0.94120-0.60906
Baltimore Orioles
Detroit Tigers
47.2%
52.8%
-136
+125
-137
+132
-1½+115
+1½-130
-1½+122
+1½-135
4
2
-0.57167-0.55713-0.75116
Tampa Bay Rays
Cleveland Indians
54.8%
45.2%
+124
-135
+128
-136
+1½-180
-1½+160
+1½-170
-1½+155
1
6
-0.57499-0.56593-0.79465
Miami Marlins
Washington Nationals
43.5%
56.5%
+128
-139
+129
-134
+1½-163
-1½+143
+1½-160
-1½+145
1
4
-0.56198-0.56676-0.57112
New York Mets
Philadelphia Phillies
46.4%
53.6%
+104
-114
+108
-117
+1½-210
-1½+175

4
6
-0.65243-0.63747-0.62370
St. Louis Cardinals
Toronto Blue Jays
37.6%
62.4%
+112
-122
+112
-119
+1½-184
-1½+164
+1½-185
-1½+170
2
7
-0.61967-0.62491-0.47125
Load More Games

Season Prediction Results

 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks128-4 (0.667)0-0.59205 
Sportsbooks128-4 (0.667)0-0.59154 
DRatings127-5 (0.583)0-0.69487
-0.10282
-0.10333

Season Simulation

 Regular SeasonPostseason
#TeamWLMake PlayoffsWin DivisionWin Conf.Conf. Champ.World Series

Predictions Methodology

Here we use computer estimates from the Inference Index to predict future Major League baseball games. We use previous score and pitcher data to best attempt to estimate the results of each game. The predictions do not account for injuries, or any other factors that may cause the outcome to be swayed in one direction or another. There is a lot of randomness, particularly in baseball, so there will always be some error in the prediction.

Beginning in the 2014 season, we have begun including probable starting pitcher into the calculation. If there is a late change in the starting pitcher for a team and it is not reflected below then the projections will not be an accurate assessment on the game. The current projection system for Major League Baseball games is at Level 3, our highest level of analysis. The Predictor should be used for entertainment purposes only.