MLB Baseball Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Games for September 20, 2024

TimeTeamsPitchersWinBest
ML
Best
Spread
RunsTotal
Runs
Best
O/U

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

More on Bet Value
More Details
Washington Nationals (52-68)
Chicago Cubs (54-69)
Trevor Williams
Jameson Taillon
47.7%
52.3%
+146
-159
+150
-160
+1½-133
-1½+115
+1½-135
-1½+122
4.92
5.17
10.09
o9½-110
u9½-110
o9½-105
u9½-110
Overall Bet Value Active
Overall Bet Value Active
Pittsburgh Pirates (42-79)
Cincinnati Reds (65-57)
Mitch Keller
Nick Martinez
35.1%
64.9%
+110
-120
+110
-116
+1½-190
-1½+165
+1½-180
-1½+170
3.86
5.42
9.28
o9-105
u9-113
o9-105
u9-115
Toronto Blue Jays (63-56)
Tampa Bay Rays (74-47)
Jose Berrios
Tyler Alexander
46.1%
53.9%
-104
-106
+100
-106
+1½-212
-1½+182

4.30
4.71
9.01
o7½-120
u8-115
o7½-115
u7½+100
Detroit Tigers (58-64)
Baltimore Orioles (38-81)
Keider Montero
Corbin Burnes
46.5%
53.5%
+146
-159
+152
-160
+1½-145
-1½+135
+1½-150
-1½+130
4.28
4.65
8.93
o7½-120
u7½+100
o7½-110
u7½+100
Philadelphia Phillies (61-59)
New York Mets (60-60)
Cristopher Sanchez
David Peterson
47.3%
52.7%
+100
-110
-104
-106
+1½-225
-1½+195
+1½-225
-1½+197
4.15
4.44
8.59
o7½+100
u7½-113
o7½+100
u7½-120
Atlanta Braves (65-56)
Miami Marlins (51-70)
Charlie Morton
Valente Bellozo
48.4%
51.6%
-195
+178
-188
+181
-1½-123
+1½+105
-1½-120
+1½+105
4.27
4.44
8.71
o9+100
u8½+100
o8½-120
u8½+100
Volatility Bet Value Active
Minnesota Twins (54-67)
Boston Red Sox (69-54)
David Festa
Richard Fitts
41.5%
58.5%
-113
+103
-112
+103
-1½+143
+1½-160
-1½+145
+1½-160
4.56
5.45
10.01
o8½-104
u8½-110
o8½-105
u8½-105
Seattle Mariners (65-56)
Texas Rangers (42-78)
George Kirby
Jacob deGrom
52.2%
47.8%
+110
-120
+114
-116
+1½-205
-1½+175
+1½-204
-1½+180
5.39
5.17
10.56
o7-105
u7-110
o7-105
u7-105
All Bet Values Active
Arizona Diamondbacks (40-81)
Milwaukee Brewers (74-47)
Zac Gallen
Colin Rea
39.0%
61.0%
-120
+110
-120
+110
-1½+135
+1½-155
-1½+140
+1½-156
3.31
4.46
7.77
o8½+100
u8+105
o8-120
u8+105
Overall Bet Value Active
Overall Bet Value Active
Los Angeles Angels (61-61)
Houston Astros (70-50)
Tyler Anderson
Justin Verlander
32.3%
67.7%
+220
-248
+227
-254
+1½+100
-1½-115
+1½+102
-1½-115
3.01
4.82
7.83
o8-105
u8-115
o7½-120
u7½+100
San Francisco Giants (78-43)
Kansas City Royals (52-67)
Mason Black
Michael Wacha
57.3%
42.7%
+166
-182
+165
-180
+1½-125
-1½+115
+1½-125
-1½+107
4.62
3.86
8.48
o8½-115
u8½-102
o8½-115
u8½-105
Overall Bet Value Active
Cleveland Indians (58-61)
St. Louis Cardinals (61-58)
Ben Lively
Kyle Gibson
49.0%
51.0%
+100
-110
+100
-110
+1½-210
-1½+180
+1½-211
-1½+185
4.47
4.58
9.05
o8-115
u8+100
o8-115
u8-105
New York Yankees (69-52)
Oakland Athletics (68-53)
Gerrit Cole
J.T. Ginn
53.5%
46.5%
-190
+174
-190
+175
-1½-115
+1½+100
-1½-117
+1½+100
4.60
4.24
8.84
o7½-122
u8-110
o8-110
u8-105
Overall Bet Value Active
Overall Bet Value Active
Chicago White Sox (71-50)
San Diego Padres (67-56)
Garrett Crochet
Joe Musgrove
46.4%
53.6%
+223
-252
+220
-240
+1½+100
-1½-116
+1½-105
-1½-110
4.27
4.65
8.92
o7+102
u7-115
o7+105
u7-120
Colorado Rockies (55-66)
Los Angeles Dodgers (75-46)
Kyle Freeland
Undecided Undecided
33.0%
67.0%
+200
-245
+215
-240
+1½-105
-1½-115
+1½+110
-1½-125
4.26
6.02
10.28
o9-115
u9-105
o9-110
u9½-120
Volatility Bet Value Active
Games for Sep 19, 2024

Completed Games

TimeTeamsWinBest
ML
Best
Spread
Final
Runs
Sportsbook
Log Loss
DRatings
Log Loss
Arizona Diamondbacks
Houston Astros
25.6%
74.4%
+121
-132
+125
-130
+1½-170
-1½+155
+1½-165
-1½+155
12
6
-0.81423-0.82055-1.36426
Cleveland Indians
Los Angeles Dodgers
31.3%
68.7%
+145
-158
+148
-158
+1½-150
-1½+132
+1½-145
-1½+135
0
4
-0.51073-0.50587-0.37599
San Francisco Giants
San Diego Padres
47.0%
53.0%
+171
-187
+175
-190
+1½-125
-1½+105
+1½-125
-1½+109
7
6
-1.01733-1.03022-0.75449
Detroit Tigers
Oakland Athletics
37.3%
62.7%
+100
-110
+100
-108
+1½-210
-1½+180
+1½-200
-1½+185
9
1
-0.71668-0.71219-0.98682
Los Angeles Angels
Texas Rangers
52.6%
47.4%
+161
-176
+162
-165
+1½-131
-1½+125
+1½-134
-1½+120
4
7
-0.47053-0.47810-0.74743
New York Yankees
Chicago Cubs
61.1%
38.9%
-152
+139
-151
+142
-1½+103
+1½-120
-1½+105
+1½-120
1
2
-0.89265-0.89848-0.94412
Seattle Mariners
St. Louis Cardinals
47.6%
52.4%
-126
+116
-125
+120
-1½+131
+1½-150
-1½+132
+1½-145
10
4
-0.60453-0.59784-0.74318
Minnesota Twins
Kansas City Royals
50.2%
49.8%
+110
-120
+111
-120
+1½-190
-1½+170
+1½-185
-1½+165
0
2
-0.62755-0.62534-0.69701
Colorado Rockies
Milwaukee Brewers
42.6%
57.4%
+250
-285
+250
-280
+1½+125
-1½-140
+1½+120
-1½-128
4
1
-1.27841-1.27508-0.85416
Philadelphia Phillies
Miami Marlins
51.7%
48.3%
-128
+118
-124
+121
-1½+130
+1½-145
-1½+130
+1½-140
1
10
-0.79924-0.79904-0.72795
Cincinnati Reds
New York Mets
47.3%
52.7%
+182
-200
+181
-198
+1½-115
-1½-102
+1½-120
-1½+102
3
1
-1.05780-1.05329-0.74970
Toronto Blue Jays
Atlanta Braves
48.4%
51.6%
+230
-260
+240
-270
+1½+105
-1½-120
+1½+102
-1½-120
3
4
-0.35037-0.33865-0.66120
Chicago White Sox
Boston Red Sox
48.0%
52.0%
+242
-275
+240
-260
+1½+125
-1½-139
+1½+120
-1½-135
7
2
-1.25502-1.23998-0.73497
Washington Nationals
Pittsburgh Pirates
56.0%
44.0%
+134
-146
+138
-146
+1½-158
-1½+138
+1½-155
-1½+140
3
7
-0.54235-0.53529-0.82121
Tampa Bay Rays
Baltimore Orioles
58.0%
42.0%
+188
-208
+185
-200
+1½-115
-1½-104
+1½-118
-1½+100
2
0
-1.08008-1.06470-0.54476
Cleveland Indians
Los Angeles Dodgers
34.1%
65.9%
+131
-143
+138
-146
+1½-156
-1½+136
+1½-150
-1½+135
2
7
-0.55137-0.53529-0.41749
Load More Games

Season Prediction Results

 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks128-4 (0.667)0-0.59205 
Sportsbooks128-4 (0.667)0-0.59154 
DRatings127-5 (0.583)0-0.69487
-0.10282
-0.10333

Season Simulation

 Regular SeasonPostseason
#TeamWLMake PlayoffsWin DivisionWin Conf.Conf. Champ.World Series

Predictions Methodology

Here we use computer estimates from the Inference Index to predict future Major League baseball games. We use previous score and pitcher data to best attempt to estimate the results of each game. The predictions do not account for injuries, or any other factors that may cause the outcome to be swayed in one direction or another. There is a lot of randomness, particularly in baseball, so there will always be some error in the prediction.

Beginning in the 2014 season, we have begun including probable starting pitcher into the calculation. If there is a late change in the starting pitcher for a team and it is not reflected below then the projections will not be an accurate assessment on the game. The current projection system for Major League Baseball games is at Level 3, our highest level of analysis. The Predictor should be used for entertainment purposes only.