MLB Baseball Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Games for September 20, 2024

TimeTeamsPitchersWinBest
ML
Best
Spread
RunsTotal
Runs
Best
O/U

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

More on Bet Value
More Details
Pittsburgh Pirates (42-79)
Cincinnati Reds (65-57)
Mitch Keller
Nick Martinez
35.1%
64.9%
+111
-121
+110
-116
+1½-181
-1½+165
+1½-180
-1½+170
3.86
5.42
9.28
o9-107
u9-110
o9-105
u9-115
Toronto Blue Jays (63-56)
Tampa Bay Rays (74-47)
Jose Berrios
Tyler Alexander
46.1%
53.9%
-104
-106
+100
-106
+1½-210
-1½+185

4.30
4.71
9.01
o8-105
u8-115
o7½-115
u7½+100
Detroit Tigers (58-64)
Baltimore Orioles (38-81)
Keider Montero
Corbin Burnes
46.5%
53.5%
+148
-162
+150
-160
+1½-140
-1½+128
+1½-150
-1½+130
4.28
4.65
8.93
o7½-120
u8-115
o7½-110
u7½+100
Philadelphia Phillies (61-59)
New York Mets (60-60)
Cristopher Sanchez
David Peterson
47.3%
52.7%
-101
-109
-104
-106
+1½-220
-1½+190
+1½-225
-1½+197
4.12
4.40
8.52
o7½-105
u7½-115
o7½+100
u7½-120
Atlanta Braves (65-56)
Miami Marlins (51-70)
Charlie Morton
Valente Bellozo
48.4%
51.6%
-197
+179
-188
+181
-1½-129
+1½+110
-1½-120
+1½+107
4.27
4.44
8.71
o9+100
u9-115
o8½-120
u8½+105
Overall Bet Value Active
Overall Bet Value Active
Minnesota Twins (54-67)
Boston Red Sox (69-54)
David Festa
Richard Fitts
41.5%
58.5%
-114
+104
-112
+108
-1½+140
+1½-158
-1½+145
+1½-152
4.51
5.40
9.91
o8½-104
u8½-115
o8½-105
u8½-105
Seattle Mariners (65-56)
Texas Rangers (42-78)
George Kirby
Jacob deGrom
52.2%
47.8%
+107
-117
+108
-116
+1½-205
-1½+180
+1½-210
-1½+184
5.39
5.17
10.56
o7-105
u7-115
o7-105
u7-105
Overall Bet Value Active
Arizona Diamondbacks (40-81)
Milwaukee Brewers (74-47)
Zac Gallen
Colin Rea
39.0%
61.0%
-126
+116
-124
+115
-1½+128
+1½-145
-1½+135
+1½-150
3.31
4.46
7.77
o8½-110
u8½-110
o8½-105
u8½-115
Overall Bet Value Active
Overall Bet Value Active
Los Angeles Angels (61-61)
Houston Astros (70-50)
Tyler Anderson
Justin Verlander
32.3%
67.7%
+214
-240
+225
-245
+1½+100
-1½-115
+1½+102
-1½-120
3.01
4.82
7.83
o8+100
u8-115
o7½-120
u7½+100
San Francisco Giants (78-43)
Kansas City Royals (52-67)
Mason Black
Michael Wacha
57.3%
42.7%
+168
-184
+165
-180
+1½-124
-1½+110
+1½-125
-1½+107
4.62
3.86
8.48
o8½-110
u8½-104
o8½-115
u8½+100
Overall Bet Value Active
Cleveland Indians (58-61)
St. Louis Cardinals (61-58)
Ben Lively
Kyle Gibson
49.0%
51.0%
+101
-111
+100
-110
+1½-205
-1½+175
+1½-211
-1½+185
4.49
4.59
9.08
o8-115
u8-104
o8-115
u8-105
New York Yankees (69-52)
Oakland Athletics (68-53)
Gerrit Cole
J.T. Ginn
53.5%
46.5%
-192
+175
-190
+175
-1½-115
+1½-102
-1½-117
+1½+100
4.60
4.24
8.84
o8-109
u8-110
o8-110
u8-105
Overall Bet Value Active
Overall Bet Value Active
Chicago White Sox (71-50)
San Diego Padres (67-56)
Garrett Crochet
Joe Musgrove
46.4%
53.6%
+233
-260
+220
-240
+1½+103
-1½-120
+1½-105
-1½-110
4.27
4.65
8.92
o7+100
u7-120
o7+105
u7-120
Colorado Rockies (55-66)
Los Angeles Dodgers (75-46)
Kyle Freeland
Undecided Undecided
33.0%
67.0%
+200
-245
+215
-240
+1½+100
-1½-120
+1½+110
-1½-125
4.26
6.02
10.28
o8½-115
u8½-105
o9+105
u9-115
Games for Sep 19, 2024

Games In Progress

TimeTeamsOrig.
Win %
Closing
ML
Closing
Spread
Orig. Total
Runs
Closing
O/U
PeriodCurrent
Score
Washington Nationals (52-68)
Chicago Cubs (54-69)
47.7%
52.3%
+147
-160
+146
-155
+1½-134
-1½+115
+1½-135
-1½+122
10.09
o9-115
u9½-120
o9½+100
u9½-115
5th
TOP
0
1

Completed Games

TimeTeamsWinBest
ML
Best
Spread
Final
Runs
Sportsbook
Log Loss
DRatings
Log Loss
San Francisco Giants
San Diego Padres
47.9%
52.1%
+111
-121
+115
-120
+1½-200
-1½+175
+1½-190
-1½+176
6
3
-0.76791-0.77596-0.73553
Toronto Blue Jays
Atlanta Braves
48.0%
52.0%
+139
-152
+146
-147
+1½-150
-1½+134
+1½-150
-1½+135
9
5
-0.89265-0.90182-0.73414
Seattle Mariners
St. Louis Cardinals
49.3%
50.7%
-133
+122
-127
+120
-1½+130
+1½-147
-1½+135
+1½-150
0
2
-0.81855-0.80236-0.67867
Chicago White Sox
Boston Red Sox
48.0%
52.0%
+178
-195
+185
-194
+1½-115
-1½-102
+1½-115
-1½+105
5
7
-0.43448-0.42641-0.65300
Minnesota Twins
Kansas City Royals
50.2%
49.8%
-129
+119
-126
+122
-1½+127
+1½-145
-1½+130
+1½-144
2
4
-0.80365-0.80544-0.69701
Colorado Rockies
Milwaukee Brewers
38.8%
61.2%
+247
-282
+245
-265
+1½+123
-1½-140
+1½+125
-1½-135
2
5
-0.32957-0.33593-0.49039
Los Angeles Angels
Texas Rangers
54.5%
45.5%
+130
-142
+137
-140
+1½-160
-1½+140
+1½-151
-1½+145
4
6
-0.55443-0.54426-0.78684
Washington Nationals
Pittsburgh Pirates
55.1%
44.9%
+130
-142
+130
-135
+1½-170
-1½+150
+1½-174
-1½+155
8
6
-0.85426-0.84211-0.59626
Cincinnati Reds
New York Mets
47.3%
52.7%
+134
-146
+135
-142
+1½-150
-1½+132
+1½-155
-1½+143
0
4
-0.54235-0.54535-0.63963
Tampa Bay Rays
Baltimore Orioles
61.5%
38.5%
+156
-170
+160
-170
+1½-142
-1½+130
+1½-140
-1½+125
7
1
-0.96006-0.96964-0.48617
Arizona Diamondbacks
Houston Astros
33.6%
66.4%
+137
-149
+142
-150
+1½-154
-1½+135
+1½-150
-1½+135
5
11
-0.53363-0.52396-0.40932
Philadelphia Phillies
Miami Marlins
57.2%
42.8%
-242
+215
-250
+225
-1½-150
+1½+130
-1½-140
+1½+130
5
9
-1.17215-1.20041-0.84756
Detroit Tigers
Oakland Athletics
37.3%
62.7%
-108
-102
-103
-105


2
1
-0.67930-0.69788-0.98682
New York Yankees
Chicago Cubs
53.7%
46.3%
-139
+128
-135
+128
-1½+120
+1½-140
-1½+121
+1½-139
2
0
-0.56198-0.56729-0.62206
Washington Nationals
Pittsburgh Pirates
53.7%
46.3%
+113
-123
+115
-118
+1½-190
-1½+165
+1½-185
-1½+175
5
3
-0.77696-0.77184-0.62088
Cleveland Indians
Los Angeles Dodgers
34.1%
65.9%
+133
-145
+133
-138
+1½-160
-1½+140
+1½-155
-1½+142
3
1
-0.86669-0.85484-1.07499
Load More Games

Season Prediction Results

 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks86-2 (0.750)0-0.58213 
Sportsbooks86-2 (0.750)0-0.58236 
DRatings85-3 (0.625)0-0.69876
-0.11663
-0.11640

Season Simulation

 Regular SeasonPostseason
#TeamWLMake PlayoffsWin DivisionWin Conf.Conf. Champ.World Series

Predictions Methodology

Here we use computer estimates from the Inference Index to predict future Major League baseball games. We use previous score and pitcher data to best attempt to estimate the results of each game. The predictions do not account for injuries, or any other factors that may cause the outcome to be swayed in one direction or another. There is a lot of randomness, particularly in baseball, so there will always be some error in the prediction.

Beginning in the 2014 season, we have begun including probable starting pitcher into the calculation. If there is a late change in the starting pitcher for a team and it is not reflected below then the projections will not be an accurate assessment on the game. The current projection system for Major League Baseball games is at Level 3, our highest level of analysis. The Predictor should be used for entertainment purposes only.