MLB Baseball Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Games for September 29, 2024

TimeTeamsPitchersWinBest
ML
Best
Spread
RunsTotal
Runs
Best
O/U

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

More on Bet Value
More Details
St. Louis Cardinals (61-58)
San Francisco Giants (78-43)
Michael McGreevy
Hayden Birdsong
40.0%
60.0%
+112
-122
+110
-115
+1½-195
-1½+170
+1½-200
-1½+180
3.64
4.68
8.32
o7½-110
u7½-110
o7½-115
u8-115
Philadelphia Phillies (61-59)
Washington Nationals (52-68)
Aaron Nola
Jake Irvin
56.1%
43.9%
-136
+125
-131
+125
-1½+120
+1½-140
-1½+126
+1½-140
4.63
3.99
8.62
o7½-112
u7½-108
o7½-110
u7½-110
Tampa Bay Rays (74-47)
Boston Red Sox (69-54)
Ryan Pepiot
Quinn Priester
48.5%
51.5%
-106
-104
-102
-103
-1½+150
+1½-170
-1½+160
+1½-170
4.65
4.81
9.46
o8+100
u8-120
o8-105
u8-110
Pittsburgh Pirates (42-79)
New York Yankees (69-52)
Bailey Falter
Clarke Schmidt
35.9%
64.1%
+155
-169
+155
-168
+1½-140
-1½+120
+1½-135
-1½+127
3.98
5.46
9.44
o8-102
u8-118
o8+100
u8-115
Texas Rangers (42-78)
Los Angeles Angels (61-61)
Nathan Eovaldi
Jack Kochanowicz
39.3%
60.7%
-149
+137
-140
+140
-1½+106
+1½-126
-1½+115
+1½-122
4.88
6.01
10.89
o8-115
u8-105
o8-110
u8-110
Volatility Bet Value Active
Miami Marlins (51-70)
Toronto Blue Jays (63-56)
Ryan Weathers
Ryan Burr
38.3%
61.7%
+112
-122
+107
-115
+1½-182
-1½+162
+1½-190
-1½+176
4.02
5.24
9.26
o7½-115
u7½-105
o7½-105
u7½-105
San Diego Padres (67-56)
Arizona Diamondbacks (40-81)
Martin Perez
Brandon Pfaadt
60.3%
39.7%
+179
-197
+190
-200
+1½-116
-1½-104
+1½-110
-1½-103
4.67
3.60
8.27
o8½-120
u8½+100
o8½-120
u8½+100
New York Mets (60-60)
Milwaukee Brewers (74-47)
David Peterson
Colin Rea
42.9%
57.1%
-133
+122
-130
+125
-1½+123
+1½-143
-1½+125
+1½-143
4.01
4.75
8.76
o8-108
u8-112
o8-105
u8-110
Los Angeles Dodgers (75-46)
Colorado Rockies (55-66)
Anthony Banda
Ryan Feltner
60.8%
39.2%
-152
+139
-151
+141
-1½-109
+1½-111
-1½-109
+1½-109
5.65
4.51
10.16
o11-114
u11-106
o11-110
u11+100
Houston Astros (70-50)
Cleveland Indians (58-61)
Ryan Gusto
Nick Sandlin
55.9%
44.1%
+123
-134
+130
-135
+1½-172
-1½+152
+1½-165
-1½+150
4.38
3.77
8.15
o7½-114
u7½-106
o7½-110
u7½+100
Overall Bet Value Active
Overall Bet Value Active
Oakland Athletics (68-53)
Seattle Mariners (65-56)
Mitch Spence
Logan Gilbert
52.8%
47.2%
+162
-177
+163
-175
+1½-138
-1½+118
+1½-144
-1½+126
5.06
4.76
9.82
o7-105
u7-115
o7-105
u7-115
Chicago White Sox (71-50)
Detroit Tigers (58-64)
Jonathan Cannon
Kenta Maeda
57.8%
42.2%
+202
-225
+210
-220
+1½-106
-1½-114
+1½+100
-1½-113
4.96
4.14
9.10
o7½-110
u7½-110
o7½-110
u7½-110
Baltimore Orioles (38-81)
Minnesota Twins (54-67)
Albert Suarez
Bailey Ober
39.2%
60.8%
+113
-123
+115
-119
+1½-182
-1½+162
+1½-185
-1½+170
4.68
5.81
10.49
o8-107
u8-113
o8-110
u8-110
Cincinnati Reds (65-57)
Chicago Cubs (54-69)
Hunter Greene
Caleb Kilian
51.6%
48.4%
-111
+101
-110
+106
-1½+151
+1½-171
-1½+155
+1½-167
4.23
4.06
8.29
o7-108
u7-112
o7-110
u7+100
Kansas City Royals (52-67)
Atlanta Braves (65-56)
Alec Marsh
Charlie Morton
38.5%
61.5%
+186
-205
+181
-200
+1½-110
-1½-110
+1½-120
-1½+102
3.96
5.17
9.13
o8-117
u8-103
o8½+100
u8+100
Games for Sep 28, 2024

Completed Games

TimeTeamsWinBest
ML
Best
Spread
Final
Runs
Sportsbook
Log Loss
DRatings
Log Loss
Philadelphia Phillies
Colorado Rockies
55.7%
44.3%
-230
+206
-225
+225
-1½-160
+1½+145
-1½-160
+1½+145
8
4
-0.38450-0.36772-0.58591
Los Angeles Dodgers
Cincinnati Reds
56.0%
44.0%
-140
+129
-140
+137
-1½+105
+1½-124
-1½+105
+1½-115
1
3
-0.84838-0.86814-0.81996
Chicago Cubs
St. Louis Cardinals
44.8%
55.2%
-102
-108
+101
-106
+1½-210
-1½+180
+1½-200
-1½+180
6
7
-0.67930-0.67645-0.59468
Atlanta Braves
Pittsburgh Pirates
57.2%
42.8%
-147
+135
-146
+140
-1½+107
+1½-125
-1½+110
+1½-124
1
4
-0.87488-0.88557-0.84875
Milwaukee Brewers
Boston Red Sox
54.2%
45.8%
+136
-148
+139
-145
+1½-154
-1½+135
+1½-150
-1½+135
6
3
-0.87895-0.88150-0.61251
Kansas City Royals
Tampa Bay Rays
37.2%
62.8%
-106
-104
-106
-102
+1½-218
-1½+188
+1½-210
-1½+192
7
4
-0.68852-0.68377-0.98970
Houston Astros
Oakland Athletics
50.1%
49.9%
-150
+141
-140
+143
-1½+106
+1½-120
-1½+110
+1½-123
1
3
-0.89446-0.88274-0.69425
Seattle Mariners
Washington Nationals
47.1%
52.9%
-154
+141
-152
+142
-1½+105
+1½-122
-1½+102
+1½-115
1
3
-0.90064-0.90002-0.63637
Baltimore Orioles
Chicago White Sox
32.9%
67.1%
-162
+148
-162
+153
-1½-103
+1½-115
-1½-105
+1½-110
5
3
-0.50206-0.49423-1.11158
Texas Rangers
Minnesota Twins
41.7%
58.3%
+129
-140
+131
-140
+1½-168
-1½+148
+1½-164
-1½+155
3
5
-0.55881-0.55511-0.53909
San Francisco Giants
New York Mets
51.4%
48.6%
+132
-144
+133
-140
+1½-171
-1½+151
+1½-170
-1½+165
7
2
-0.86254-0.85830-0.66468
Toronto Blue Jays
Detroit Tigers
57.6%
42.4%
+104
-114
+105
-110

-1½+170
+1½-180
1
2
-0.65243-0.65817-0.85920
New York Yankees
San Diego Padres
43.4%
56.6%
-117
+107
-116
+110
-1½+150
+1½-168
-1½+150
+1½-165
8
0
-0.63974-0.63482-0.83407
Houston Astros
Oakland Athletics
58.3%
41.7%
-173
+158
-170
+158
-1½-105
+1½-109
-1½-103
+1½-105
6
3
-0.47726-0.47970-0.53995
Miami Marlins
Arizona Diamondbacks
46.5%
53.5%
+165
-180
+175
-178
+1½-130
-1½+110
+1½-120
-1½+115
3
0
-0.99458-1.01550-0.76666
Cleveland Indians
Los Angeles Angels
47.5%
52.5%
-106
-104
-101
-103
-1½+157
+1½-177
-1½+155
+1½-175
10
4
-0.68852-0.69802-0.74450
Load More Games

Season Prediction Results

 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks147-7 (0.500)0-0.73740 
Sportsbooks147-7 (0.500)0-0.73525 
DRatings148-6 (0.571)0-0.66378
0.07362
0.07147

Season Simulation

 Regular SeasonPostseason
#TeamWLMake PlayoffsWin DivisionWin Conf.Conf. Champ.World Series

Predictions Methodology

Here we use computer estimates from the Inference Index to predict future Major League baseball games. We use previous score and pitcher data to best attempt to estimate the results of each game. The predictions do not account for injuries, or any other factors that may cause the outcome to be swayed in one direction or another. There is a lot of randomness, particularly in baseball, so there will always be some error in the prediction.

Beginning in the 2014 season, we have begun including probable starting pitcher into the calculation. If there is a late change in the starting pitcher for a team and it is not reflected below then the projections will not be an accurate assessment on the game. The current projection system for Major League Baseball games is at Level 3, our highest level of analysis. The Predictor should be used for entertainment purposes only.