MLB Baseball Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Games for September 29, 2024

TimeTeamsPitchersWinBest
ML
Best
Spread
RunsTotal
Runs
Best
O/U

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

More on Bet Value
More Details
PostponedHouston Astros (70-50)
Cleveland Indians (58-61)
Ryan Gusto
Nick Sandlin
55.9%
44.1%
+123
-134
+129
-134
+1½-172
-1½+152
+1½-170
-1½+155
4.38
3.77
8.15
o7½-114
u7½-106
o7½-110
u7½+100
Overall Bet Value Active
Overall Bet Value Active
PostponedPittsburgh Pirates (42-79)
New York Yankees (69-52)
Bailey Falter
Clarke Schmidt
35.9%
64.1%
+165
-180
+160
-170
+1½-132
-1½+112
+1½-135
-1½+125
3.96
5.44
9.40
o8-102
u8-118
o8+100
u8-115
Games for Sep 28, 2024

Games In Progress

TimeTeamsOrig.
Win %
Closing
ML
Closing
Spread
Orig. Total
Runs
Closing
O/U
PeriodCurrent
Score
St. Louis Cardinals (61-58)
San Francisco Giants (78-43)
40.0%
60.0%
+111
-121
+110
-115
+1½-195
-1½+170
+1½-200
-1½+180
8.36
o7½-107
u7½-113
o7½-105
u7½-105
2nd
BOT
0
0
Philadelphia Phillies (61-59)
Washington Nationals (52-68)
56.1%
43.9%
-137
+126
-132
+126
-1½+122
+1½-142
-1½+125
+1½-140
8.62
o7½-107
u7½-113
o7½-110
u7½-110
2nd
TOP
2
1
Tampa Bay Rays (74-47)
Boston Red Sox (69-54)
48.5%
51.5%
-105
-105
-102
-103
-1½+150
+1½-170
-1½+160
+1½-170
9.46
o8-101
u8-119
o8+105
u8-120
2nd
BOT
0
0
Texas Rangers (42-78)
Los Angeles Angels (61-61)
39.3%
60.7%
-150
+138
-142
+137
-1½+110
+1½-130
-1½+110
+1½-125
10.89
o8-114
u8-106
o8-105
u8-110
2nd
TOP
0
0
Miami Marlins (51-70)
Toronto Blue Jays (63-56)
38.3%
61.7%
+103
-113
+106
-114
+1½-195
-1½+170
+1½-190
-1½+180
9.26
o7½-110
u7½-110
o7½+100
u7½-110
1st
BOT
2
0
San Diego Padres (67-56)
Arizona Diamondbacks (40-81)
60.3%
39.7%
+191
-212
+190
-200
+1½-113
-1½-107
+1½-110
-1½-103
8.27
o8½-120
u8½+100
o8½-120
u8½+105
2nd
TOP
0
0
New York Mets (60-60)
Milwaukee Brewers (74-47)
42.9%
57.1%
-142
+130
-140
+132
-1½+119
+1½-139
-1½+120
+1½-130
8.76
o8-108
u8-112
o8-105
u8-110
1st
BOT
1
0
Los Angeles Dodgers (75-46)
Colorado Rockies (55-66)
60.8%
39.2%
-149
+137
-151
+141
-1½-107
+1½-113
-1½-109
+1½-109
10.16
o11-117
u11-103
o11-115
u11+100
2nd
TOP
0
0
Oakland Athletics (68-53)
Seattle Mariners (65-56)
52.8%
47.2%
+168
-184
+164
-175
+1½-134
-1½+114
+1½-144
-1½+126
9.82
o7-105
u7-115
o7+105
u7-115
2nd
TOP
0
0
Chicago White Sox (71-50)
Detroit Tigers (58-64)
57.8%
42.2%
+202
-225
+210
-229
+1½-106
-1½-114
+1½+100
-1½-113
9.10
o7½-120
u7½+100
o7½-110
u7½-105
2nd
TOP
0
0
Baltimore Orioles (38-81)
Minnesota Twins (54-67)
39.2%
60.8%
+112
-122
+115
-119
+1½-183
-1½+163
+1½-185
-1½+170
10.49
o8½-109
u8½-111
o8-110
u8-110
2nd
TOP
0
0
Cincinnati Reds (65-57)
Chicago Cubs (54-69)
51.6%
48.4%
-112
+102
-107
+101
-1½+147
+1½-167
-1½+155
+1½-170
8.29
o7-110
u7-110
o7-110
u7-105
1st
TOP
0
0
Kansas City Royals (52-67)
Atlanta Braves (65-56)
38.5%
61.5%
+186
-205
+181
-200
+1½-110
-1½-110
+1½-120
-1½+102
9.13
o8-117
u8-103
o8½+100
u8+100
1st
TOP
0
0

Completed Games

TimeTeamsWinBest
ML
Best
Spread
Final
Runs
Sportsbook
Log Loss
DRatings
Log Loss
Philadelphia Phillies
Colorado Rockies
51.6%
48.4%
-198
+180
-200
+185
-1½-137
+1½+120
-1½-135
+1½+120
2
3
-1.05097-1.06470-0.72486
Baltimore Orioles
Chicago White Sox
36.5%
63.5%
-228
+205
-230
+220
-1½-139
+1½+125
-1½-140
+1½+130
6
4
-0.38640-0.37044-1.00810
Milwaukee Brewers
Boston Red Sox
47.9%
52.1%
+116
-126
+120
-128
+1½-170
-1½+155
+1½-170
-1½+155
7
2
-0.79039-0.80428-0.73699
Texas Rangers
Minnesota Twins
40.8%
59.2%
+141
-154
+147
-157
+1½-153
-1½+135
+1½-150
-1½+141
2
3
-0.52140-0.50846-0.52440
Los Angeles Dodgers
Cincinnati Reds
56.2%
43.8%
-148
+136
-151
+142
-1½-112
+1½+100
-1½-110
+1½-103
6
9
-0.87895-0.89848-0.82471
San Francisco Giants
New York Mets
51.4%
48.6%
+129
-140
+130
-140
+1½-170
-1½+150
+1½-170
-1½+150
8
7
-0.84838-0.85085-0.66468
Kansas City Royals
Tampa Bay Rays
36.7%
63.3%
-117
+107
-112
+108
-1½+135
+1½-155
-1½+145
+1½-150
8
1
-0.63974-0.64712-1.00307
Seattle Mariners
Washington Nationals
47.1%
52.9%
-122
+112
-120
+115
-1½+132
+1½-150
-1½+131
+1½-140
1
6
-0.77245-0.77596-0.63637
Toronto Blue Jays
Detroit Tigers
58.0%
42.0%
-112
+102
-112
+109
-1½+145
+1½-161
-1½+148
+1½-160
2
6
-0.72619-0.74391-0.86810
Atlanta Braves
Pittsburgh Pirates
59.8%
40.2%
-172
+157
-170
+158
-1½-115
+1½-105
-1½-115
+1½-103
5
11
-0.96511-0.96488-0.91016
Baltimore Orioles
Chicago White Sox
32.9%
67.1%
-222
+200
-230
+213
-1½-146
+1½+130
-1½-145
+1½+140
8
6
-0.39439-0.37734-1.11076
Toronto Blue Jays
Detroit Tigers
57.8%
42.2%
-105
-105
-101
-107
+1½-215
-1½+190
+1½-210
-1½+193
9
1
-0.69315-0.70739-0.54854
Colorado Rockies
Oakland Athletics
39.8%
60.2%
+107
-117
+108
-110
+1½-190
-1½+170
+1½-200
-1½+180
9
10
-0.63974-0.65120-0.50788
Atlanta Braves
Chicago Cubs
53.8%
46.2%
+108
-118
+105
-113

-1½+160
+1½-175
3
0
-0.75417-0.73601-0.61954
Texas Rangers
Philadelphia Phillies
39.8%
60.2%
+179
-196
+179
-189
+1½-115
-1½+100
+1½-115
-1½+106
2
5
-0.43262-0.43700-0.50727
San Diego Padres
Cincinnati Reds
50.1%
49.9%
-111
+101
-107
-102
-1½+140
+1½-160
-1½+145
+1½-160
6
4
-0.66563-0.68152-0.69067
Load More Games

Season Prediction Results

 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks126-6 (0.500)0-0.73087 
Sportsbooks126-6 (0.500)0-0.72907 
DRatings127-5 (0.583)0-0.63850
0.09237
0.09057

Season Simulation

 Regular SeasonPostseason
#TeamWLMake PlayoffsWin DivisionWin Conf.Conf. Champ.World Series

Predictions Methodology

Here we use computer estimates from the Inference Index to predict future Major League baseball games. We use previous score and pitcher data to best attempt to estimate the results of each game. The predictions do not account for injuries, or any other factors that may cause the outcome to be swayed in one direction or another. There is a lot of randomness, particularly in baseball, so there will always be some error in the prediction.

Beginning in the 2014 season, we have begun including probable starting pitcher into the calculation. If there is a late change in the starting pitcher for a team and it is not reflected below then the projections will not be an accurate assessment on the game. The current projection system for Major League Baseball games is at Level 3, our highest level of analysis. The Predictor should be used for entertainment purposes only.