MLB Baseball Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Games for September 29, 2024

TimeTeamsPitchersWinBest
ML
Best
Spread
RunsTotal
Runs
Best
O/U

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

More on Bet Value
More Details
PostponedHouston Astros (70-50)
Cleveland Indians (58-61)
Ryan Gusto
Nick Sandlin
54.5%
45.5%
+123
-134
+129
-134
+1½-172
-1½+152
+1½-170
-1½+155
4.20
3.74
7.94
o7½-114
u7½-106
o7½-110
u7½+100
Overall Bet Value Active
Overall Bet Value Active
Games for Sep 28, 2024

Games In Progress

TimeTeamsOrig.
Win %
Closing
ML
Closing
Spread
Orig. Total
Runs
Closing
O/U
PeriodCurrent
Score
St. Louis Cardinals (61-58)
San Francisco Giants (78-43)
40.0%
60.0%
+111
-121
+110
-115
+1½-195
-1½+170
+1½-200
-1½+180
8.36
o7½-107
u7½-113
o7½-105
u7½-105
9th
BOT
6
1
Philadelphia Phillies (61-59)
Washington Nationals (52-68)
56.1%
43.9%
-137
+126
-132
+126
-1½+122
+1½-142
-1½+125
+1½-140
8.62
o7½-107
u7½-113
o7½-110
u7½-110
9th
TOP
6
3
Texas Rangers (42-78)
Los Angeles Angels (61-61)
39.3%
60.7%
-150
+138
-142
+137
-1½+110
+1½-130
-1½+110
+1½-125
10.89
o8-114
u8-106
o8-105
u8-110
9th
BOT
8
0
Miami Marlins (51-70)
Toronto Blue Jays (63-56)
38.3%
61.7%
+103
-113
+106
-114
+1½-195
-1½+170
+1½-190
-1½+180
9.26
o7½-110
u7½-110
o7½+100
u7½-110
8th
BOT
3
1
San Diego Padres (67-56)
Arizona Diamondbacks (40-81)
60.3%
39.7%
+191
-212
+190
-200
+1½-113
-1½-107
+1½-110
-1½-103
8.27
o8½-120
u8½+100
o8½-120
u8½+105
8th
TOP
2
9
New York Mets (60-60)
Milwaukee Brewers (74-47)
42.9%
57.1%
-142
+130
-140
+132
-1½+119
+1½-139
-1½+120
+1½-130
8.76
o8-108
u8-112
o8-105
u8-110
8th
BOT
5
0
Los Angeles Dodgers (75-46)
Colorado Rockies (55-66)
60.8%
39.2%
-149
+137
-151
+141
-1½-107
+1½-113
-1½-109
+1½-109
10.16
o11-117
u11-103
o11-115
u11+100
8th
BOT
2
1
Oakland Athletics (68-53)
Seattle Mariners (65-56)
52.8%
47.2%
+168
-184
+164
-175
+1½-134
-1½+114
+1½-144
-1½+126
9.82
o7-105
u7-115
o7+105
u7-115
9th
TOP
2
6
Chicago White Sox (71-50)
Detroit Tigers (58-64)
57.8%
42.2%
+202
-225
+210
-229
+1½-106
-1½-114
+1½+100
-1½-113
9.10
o7½-120
u7½+100
o7½-110
u7½-105
8th
TOP
9
4
Baltimore Orioles (38-81)
Minnesota Twins (54-67)
39.2%
60.8%
+112
-122
+115
-119
+1½-183
-1½+163
+1½-185
-1½+170
10.49
o8½-109
u8½-111
o8-110
u8-110
9th
BOT
6
2
Cincinnati Reds (65-57)
Chicago Cubs (54-69)
51.6%
48.4%
-112
+102
-107
+101
-1½+147
+1½-167
-1½+155
+1½-170
8.29
o7-110
u7-110
o7-110
u7-105
8th
TOP
0
0
Kansas City Royals (52-67)
Atlanta Braves (65-56)
38.5%
61.5%
+186
-205
+181
-200
+1½-110
-1½-110
+1½-120
-1½+102
9.13
o8-117
u8-103
o8½+100
u8+100
8th
BOT
4
2
Pittsburgh Pirates (42-79)
New York Yankees (69-52)
35.9%
64.1%
+165
-180
+160
-170
+1½-132
-1½+112
+1½-135
-1½+125
9.40
o8-102
u8-118
o8+100
u8-115
3rd
BOT
3
2

Completed Games

TimeTeamsWinBest
ML
Best
Spread
Final
Runs
Sportsbook
Log Loss
DRatings
Log Loss
San Diego Padres
Cincinnati Reds
50.1%
49.9%
-111
+101
-107
-102
-1½+140
+1½-160
-1½+145
+1½-160
6
4
-0.66563-0.68152-0.69067
Seattle Mariners
New York Yankees
40.5%
59.5%
+137
-149
+135
-142
+1½-162
-1½+142
+1½-155
-1½+146
0
5
-0.53363-0.54535-0.51898
San Francisco Giants
Pittsburgh Pirates
61.6%
38.4%
+165
-180
+165
-174
+1½-130
-1½+110
+1½-135
-1½+120
7
6
-0.99458-0.98687-0.48448
Arizona Diamondbacks
Los Angeles Dodgers
28.6%
71.4%
+262
-300
+268
-304
+1½+135
-1½-155
+1½+140
-1½-155
6
0
-1.31237-1.32686-1.25292
Colorado Rockies
Oakland Athletics
39.8%
60.2%
+129
-140
+132
-140
+1½-173
-1½+155
+1½-170
-1½+155
4
3
-0.84838-0.85583-0.92073
Atlanta Braves
Chicago Cubs
61.7%
38.3%
-124
+114
-123
+121
-1½+125
+1½-145
-1½+131
+1½-140
9
2
-0.61201-0.59904-0.48272
Chicago White Sox
Toronto Blue Jays
46.9%
53.1%
+203
-227
+220
-235
+1½+105
-1½-121
+1½+105
-1½-120
2
9
-0.38895-0.36844-0.63216
Seattle Mariners
New York Yankees
39.0%
61.0%
+142
-155
+153
-148
+1½-148
-1½+135
+1½-145
-1½+140
3
7
-0.51869-0.50823-0.49356
Boston Red Sox
Tampa Bay Rays
45.1%
54.9%
+128
-139
+130
-135
+1½-173
-1½+155
+1½-175
-1½+160
8
5
-0.84416-0.84211-0.79627
Texas Rangers
Philadelphia Phillies
38.0%
62.0%
+105
-115
+104
-111
+1½-175
-1½+161
+1½-175
-1½+167
4
11
-0.64814-0.65846-0.47863
San Francisco Giants
Pittsburgh Pirates
61.6%
38.4%
+111
-121
+110
-115
+1½-205
-1½+175
+1½-200
-1½+176
9
5
-0.76791-0.75294-0.48448
San Diego Padres
Cincinnati Reds
48.0%
52.0%
-123
+113
-122
+115
-1½+130
+1½-147
-1½+131
+1½-145
7
3
-0.61582-0.61323-0.73391
Milwaukee Brewers
Miami Marlins
50.6%
49.4%
-125
+115
-118
+118
-1½+135
+1½-155
-1½+140
+1½-155
0
1
-0.78592-0.77932-0.70567
Detroit Tigers
Kansas City Royals
44.1%
55.9%
-110
+100
-110
+102
-1½+155
+1½-175
-1½+155
+1½-170
3
8
-0.71668-0.72177-0.58234
Los Angeles Angels
Houston Astros
40.0%
60.0%
+175
-192
+181
-200
+1½-119
-1½+100
+1½-110
-1½-105
2
1
-1.03254-1.05547-0.91674
Baltimore Orioles
St. Louis Cardinals
45.6%
54.4%
-118
+108
-117
+113
-1½+130
+1½-145
-1½+135
+1½-150
4
5
-0.75417-0.76475-0.60789
Load More Games

Season Prediction Results

 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks95-3 (0.611)1-0.66541 
Sportsbooks96-3 (0.667)0-0.65851 
DRatings96-3 (0.667)0-0.64864
0.01677
0.00987

Season Simulation

 Regular SeasonPostseason
#TeamWLMake PlayoffsWin DivisionWin Conf.Conf. Champ.World Series

Predictions Methodology

Here we use computer estimates from the Inference Index to predict future Major League baseball games. We use previous score and pitcher data to best attempt to estimate the results of each game. The predictions do not account for injuries, or any other factors that may cause the outcome to be swayed in one direction or another. There is a lot of randomness, particularly in baseball, so there will always be some error in the prediction.

Beginning in the 2014 season, we have begun including probable starting pitcher into the calculation. If there is a late change in the starting pitcher for a team and it is not reflected below then the projections will not be an accurate assessment on the game. The current projection system for Major League Baseball games is at Level 3, our highest level of analysis. The Predictor should be used for entertainment purposes only.