MLB Baseball Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Games for September 20, 2024

TimeTeamsPitchersWinBest
ML
Best
Spread
RunsTotal
Runs
Best
O/U

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

More on Bet Value
More Details
Washington Nationals (52-68)
Chicago Cubs (54-69)
Trevor Williams
Jameson Taillon
47.7%
52.3%
+148
-162



4.99
5.22
10.21


Pittsburgh Pirates (42-79)
Cincinnati Reds (65-57)
Undecided Undecided
Nick Martinez
36.4%
63.6%

+240
-450

+1½-110
-1½+100
3.83
5.26
9.09

o10-120
u10+100
Toronto Blue Jays (63-56)
Tampa Bay Rays (74-47)
Jose Berrios
Undecided Undecided
46.1%
53.9%




4.30
4.71
9.01


Detroit Tigers (58-64)
Baltimore Orioles (38-81)
Undecided Undecided
Corbin Burnes
46.5%
53.5%




4.28
4.65
8.93


Philadelphia Phillies (61-59)
New York Mets (60-60)
Cristopher Sanchez
David Peterson
47.3%
52.7%
-105
-105

-1½+160
+1½-185

4.19
4.47
8.66
o7½+103
u7½-120

Atlanta Braves (65-56)
Miami Marlins (51-70)
Charlie Morton
Valente Bellozo
54.0%
46.0%
-195
+178

-1½-120
+1½+100

4.60
4.18
8.78
o8½-110
u8½-105

Minnesota Twins (54-67)
Boston Red Sox (69-54)
David Festa
Undecided Undecided
41.5%
58.5%




4.56
5.45
10.01


Seattle Mariners (65-56)
Texas Rangers (42-78)
George Kirby
Jacob deGrom
52.2%
47.8%
-101
-109

+1½-225
-1½+185

5.39
5.17
10.56
o7½+100
u7½-115

Arizona Diamondbacks (40-81)
Milwaukee Brewers (74-47)
Zac Gallen
Colin Rea
39.0%
61.0%




3.31
4.46
7.77


Los Angeles Angels (61-61)
Houston Astros (70-50)
Tyler Anderson
Justin Verlander
32.3%
67.7%
+220
-248

+1½-105
-1½-115

3.01
4.82
7.83
o8½+103
u8-105

San Francisco Giants (78-43)
Kansas City Royals (52-67)
Mason Black
Michael Wacha
57.3%
42.7%
+150
-164
-150
+140
+1½-145
-1½+125
-1½-115
+1½+105
4.65
3.89
8.54
o8-120
u8½-115
o10½-120
u10½+100
Cleveland Indians (58-61)
St. Louis Cardinals (61-58)
Ben Lively
Kyle Gibson
49.0%
51.0%
+100
-110

+1½-220
-1½+180

4.47
4.58
9.05
o8-115
u8-105

New York Yankees (69-52)
Oakland Athletics (68-53)
Gerrit Cole
J.T. Ginn
54.2%
45.8%
-185
+169

-1½-110
+1½-110

4.68
4.23
8.91
o8-105
u8-115

Chicago White Sox (71-50)
San Diego Padres (67-56)
Garrett Crochet
Joe Musgrove
46.4%
53.6%
+204
-228

+1½-115
-1½-105

4.27
4.65
8.92
o7-120
u7+100

Colorado Rockies (55-66)
Los Angeles Dodgers (75-46)
Kyle Freeland
Undecided Undecided
33.0%
67.0%




4.26
6.02
10.28


Games for Sep 21, 2024

Games In Progress

TimeTeamsOrig.
Win %
Closing
ML
Closing
Spread
Orig. Total
Runs
Closing
O/U
PeriodCurrent
Score
New York Yankees (69-52)
Seattle Mariners (65-56)
52.5%
47.5%
+106
-116
+110
-115
+1½-210
-1½+180

10.25
o7-115
u7+105
o7-120
u7+105
FINAL
FINAL
2
3
Los Angeles Dodgers (75-46)
Miami Marlins (51-70)
63.9%
36.1%
-195
+178
-197
+185
-1½-125
+1½+105
-1½-120
+1½+105
8.37
o8-115
u8-105
o8-115
u8+100
7th
TOP
14
3
Boston Red Sox (69-54)
Tampa Bay Rays (74-47)
45.1%
54.9%
-109
-101
-110
+100
-1½+155
+1½-175
+1½-230
-1½+200
9.46
o8-105
u8-115
o8-105
u8-115
1st
BOT
0
0

Completed Games

TimeTeamsWinBest
ML
Best
Spread
Final
Runs
Sportsbook
Log Loss
DRatings
Log Loss
Toronto Blue Jays
Texas Rangers
62.3%
37.7%
+118
-128
+120
-125
+1½-180
-1½+163
+1½-185
-1½+170
4
0
-0.79924-0.79851-0.47276
Minnesota Twins
Cleveland Indians
47.8%
52.2%
-112
+102
-105
+101

+1½-216
-1½+195
2
3
-0.72619-0.70779-0.64926
Atlanta Braves
Cincinnati Reds
49.1%
50.9%
-210
+190
-200
+190
-1½-140
+1½+120
-1½-135
+1½+117
15
3
-0.41146-0.41690-0.71186
San Francisco Giants
Baltimore Orioles
59.9%
40.1%
+145
-158
+144
-154
+1½-150
-1½+130
+1½-160
-1½+141
3
5
-0.51073-0.51639-0.91454
New York Yankees
Seattle Mariners
54.8%
45.2%
-113
+103
-113
+105
-1½+150
+1½-164
-1½+146
+1½-160
2
1
-0.65676-0.65204-0.60075
Toronto Blue Jays
Texas Rangers
59.6%
40.4%
-103
-107
+102
-108
+1½-205
-1½+185
+1½-210
-1½+190
0
2
-0.68389-0.66959-0.90513
Pittsburgh Pirates
St. Louis Cardinals
38.9%
61.1%
+187
-207
+181
-196
+1½-110
-1½-109
+1½-115
-1½+102
5
10
-0.41658-0.43012-0.49328
Detroit Tigers
Kansas City Royals
44.1%
55.9%
-134
+123
-130
+122
-1½+122
+1½-135
-1½+125
+1½-140
4
2
-0.57834-0.58609-0.81778
Philadelphia Phillies
Milwaukee Brewers
53.1%
46.9%
-103
-107
+100
-105
+1½-205
-1½+190
+1½-210
-1½+190
1
2
-0.68389-0.68116-0.75734
Washington Nationals
New York Mets
43.4%
56.6%
+156
-170
+154
-165
+1½-142
-1½+130
+1½-145
-1½+132
0
10
-0.48268-0.48999-0.56951
Boston Red Sox
Tampa Bay Rays
46.3%
53.7%
-102
-108
+105
-107
+1½-210
-1½+185
+1½-210
-1½+186
2
1
-0.70719-0.72256-0.76927
Houston Astros
San Diego Padres
50.8%
49.2%
-104
-106
-104
-105

-1½+165
+1½-180
0
4
-0.68852-0.69081-0.70974
Minnesota Twins
Cleveland Indians
47.8%
52.2%
+118
-128
+120
-130
+1½-190
-1½+170
+1½-185
-1½+173
4
5
-0.59724-0.59012-0.64926
Atlanta Braves
Cincinnati Reds
49.1%
50.9%
-132
+121
-127
+126
-1½+120
+1½-134
-1½+127
+1½-130
7
1
-0.58515-0.58272-0.71186
Los Angeles Dodgers
Miami Marlins
60.9%
39.1%
-200
+182
-196
+181
-1½-130
+1½+110
-1½-120
+1½+110
8
4
-0.42652-0.43012-0.49535
San Francisco Giants
Baltimore Orioles
61.9%
38.1%
+149
-163
+148
-155
+1½-143
-1½+130
+1½-150
-1½+134
5
3
-0.93344-0.91925-0.47905
Load More Games

Season Prediction Results

 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks108-2 (0.800)0-0.59498 
Sportsbooks108-2 (0.800)0-0.59486 
DRatings105-5 (0.500)0-0.68922
-0.09424
-0.09436

Season Simulation

 Regular SeasonPostseason
#TeamWLMake PlayoffsWin DivisionWin Conf.Conf. Champ.World Series

Predictions Methodology

Here we use computer estimates from the Inference Index to predict future Major League baseball games. We use previous score and pitcher data to best attempt to estimate the results of each game. The predictions do not account for injuries, or any other factors that may cause the outcome to be swayed in one direction or another. There is a lot of randomness, particularly in baseball, so there will always be some error in the prediction.

Beginning in the 2014 season, we have begun including probable starting pitcher into the calculation. If there is a late change in the starting pitcher for a team and it is not reflected below then the projections will not be an accurate assessment on the game. The current projection system for Major League Baseball games is at Level 3, our highest level of analysis. The Predictor should be used for entertainment purposes only.