MLB Baseball Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Games for October 1, 2024

TimeTeamsPitchersWinBest
ML
Best
Spread
RunsTotal
Runs
Best
O/U

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

More on Bet Value
More Details
Detroit Tigers (58-64)
Houston Astros (70-50)
Tarik Skubal
Framber Valdez
34.7%
65.3%
+132
-144
+132
-138
+1½-190
-1½+165
+1½-186
-1½+170
3.34
4.92
8.26
o6½+100
u6½-110
o6½+100
u6+100
Kansas City Royals (52-67)
Baltimore Orioles (38-81)
Cole Ragans
Corbin Burnes
47.6%
52.4%
+134
-146
+138
-146
+1½-175
-1½+155
+1½-173
-1½+155
4.45
4.71
9.16
o7+103
u7-120
o7+105
u6½+100
Games for Sep 30, 2024

Games In Progress

TimeTeamsOrig.
Win %
Closing
ML
Closing
Spread
Orig. Total
Runs
Closing
O/U
PeriodCurrent
Score
New York Mets (60-60)
Atlanta Braves (65-56)
44.1%
55.9%
+266
-305
+250
-280
+1½+152
-1½-172
+1½+150
-1½-143
8.86
o9-115
u9-105
o9-110
u9-105
3rd
BOT
0
1

Completed Games

TimeTeamsWinBest
ML
Best
Spread
Final
Runs
Sportsbook
Log Loss
DRatings
Log Loss
Arizona Diamondbacks
Baltimore Orioles
47.9%
52.1%
+119
-129
+125
-130
+1½-180
-1½+160
+1½-170
-1½+160
2
4
-0.59365-0.58016-0.65224
New York Yankees
Tampa Bay Rays
44.8%
55.2%
-125
+115
-121
+120
-1½+130
+1½-150
-1½+135
+1½-145
2
0
-0.60825-0.60444-0.80310
Houston Astros
Detroit Tigers
61.0%
39.0%
-145
+133
-140
+135
-1½+115
+1½-134
-1½+115
+1½-130
5
2
-0.54531-0.54782-0.49348
Chicago Cubs
Pittsburgh Pirates
52.9%
47.1%
+113
-123
+118
-124
+1½-195
-1½+170
+1½-185
-1½+176
7
2
-0.77696-0.79153-0.63745
Kansas City Royals
Los Angeles Angels
41.9%
58.1%
-111
+101
-108
+105
-1½+145
+1½-165
-1½+155
+1½-165
10
4
-0.66563-0.66240-0.86893
Cleveland Indians
Chicago White Sox
39.6%
60.4%
-148
+136
-144
+139
-1½+114
+1½-125
-1½+110
+1½-125
2
3
-0.87895-0.87984-0.50476
St. Louis Cardinals
Milwaukee Brewers
40.7%
59.3%
-133
+122
-130
+125
-1½+125
+1½-144
-1½+125
+1½-134
1
7
-0.81855-0.82055-0.52253
Houston Astros
New York Yankees
48.0%
52.0%
+131
-143
+135
-137
+1½-162
-1½+142
+1½-165
-1½+150
4
3
-0.85840-0.85800-0.73439
San Francisco Giants
Colorado Rockies
55.8%
44.2%
-122
+113
-125
+118
-1½+122
+1½-135
-1½+120
+1½-135
1
9
-0.77499-0.79350-0.81541
Seattle Mariners
Minnesota Twins
46.1%
53.9%
-103
-107
+100
-106
+1½-219
-1½+189
+1½-215
-1½+193
1
11
-0.68389-0.67889-0.61882
Arizona Diamondbacks
Cincinnati Reds
37.5%
62.5%
+129
-140
+129
-134
+1½-165
-1½+145
+1½-165
-1½+155
5
4
-0.84838-0.83785-0.98211
San Francisco Giants
Colorado Rockies
55.8%
44.2%
-160
+147
-155
+155
-1½-104
+1½-110
-1½+110
+1½-105
8
6
-0.50556-0.49784-0.58422
Seattle Mariners
Minnesota Twins
47.0%
53.0%
-102
-108
-101
-105
-1½+163
+1½-175
-1½+163
+1½-180
3
6
-0.67930-0.68363-0.63541
Boston Red Sox
Atlanta Braves
40.7%
59.3%
+188
-208
+194
-200
+1½-115
-1½+100
+1½-115
-1½+100
0
5
-0.41486-0.41225-0.52324
Houston Astros
New York Yankees
48.0%
52.0%
+145
-158
+152
-160
+1½-140
-1½+125
+1½-135
-1½+120
4
9
-0.51073-0.49765-0.65354
Chicago White Sox
Tampa Bay Rays
44.3%
55.7%
+230
-260
+233
-250
+1½+115
-1½-135
+1½+105
-1½-120
4
1
-1.21885-1.21746-0.81360
Load More Games

Season Prediction Results

 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks10-1 (0.000)0-0.84416 
Sportsbooks10-1 (0.000)0-0.84742 
DRatings10-1 (0.000)0-0.81771
0.02645
0.02971

Season Simulation

 Regular SeasonPostseason
#TeamWLMake PlayoffsWin DivisionWin Conf.Conf. Champ.World Series

Predictions Methodology

Here we use computer estimates from the Inference Index to predict future Major League baseball games. We use previous score and pitcher data to best attempt to estimate the results of each game. The predictions do not account for injuries, or any other factors that may cause the outcome to be swayed in one direction or another. There is a lot of randomness, particularly in baseball, so there will always be some error in the prediction.

Beginning in the 2014 season, we have begun including probable starting pitcher into the calculation. If there is a late change in the starting pitcher for a team and it is not reflected below then the projections will not be an accurate assessment on the game. The current projection system for Major League Baseball games is at Level 3, our highest level of analysis. The Predictor should be used for entertainment purposes only.