MLB Baseball Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Games for October 1, 2024

TimeTeamsPitchersWinBest
ML
Best
Spread
RunsTotal
Runs
Best
O/U

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

More on Bet Value
More Details
Atlanta Braves (65-56)
San Diego Padres (67-56)
AJ Smith-Shawver
Mike King
47.9%
52.1%
+157
-172
+160
-170
+1½-140
-1½+120
+1½-142
-1½+130
4.26
4.48
8.74
o7½-101
u7½-115
o7½+105
u7+105
Overall Bet Value Active
Overall Bet Value Active
Games for Sep 30, 2024

Games In Progress

TimeTeamsOrig.
Win %
Closing
ML
Closing
Spread
Orig. Total
Runs
Closing
O/U
PeriodCurrent
Score
Kansas City Royals (52-67)
Baltimore Orioles (38-81)
47.6%
52.4%
+129
-140
+133
-140
+1½-175
-1½+155
+1½-175
-1½+165
9.23
o7+105
u6½+104
o7+100
u7-120
9th
BOT
1
0
New York Mets (60-60)
Milwaukee Brewers (74-47)
47.2%
52.8%
+130
-142
+134
-141
+1½-171
-1½+151
+1½-173
-1½+155
9.30
o7½-105
u7½-114
o7½+100
u7½-120
3rd
BOT
3
2

Completed Games

TimeTeamsWinBest
ML
Best
Spread
Final
Runs
Sportsbook
Log Loss
DRatings
Log Loss
Pittsburgh Pirates
San Francisco Giants
32.6%
67.4%
+128
-139
+135
-140
+1½-170
-1½+150
+1½-165
-1½+150
0
3
-0.56198-0.54782-0.39408
Arizona Diamondbacks
Seattle Mariners
45.9%
54.1%
-126
+116
-122
+117
-1½+135
+1½-154
-1½+130
+1½-145
1
6
-0.79039-0.78504-0.61374
Philadelphia Phillies
San Diego Padres
48.3%
51.7%
-110
+100
-108
+100
-1½+155
+1½-175
-1½+160
+1½-175
9
3
-0.67015-0.67446-0.72780
Minnesota Twins
Los Angeles Angels
48.4%
51.6%
+105
-115
+107
-112
+1½-198
-1½+180
-1½+170
+1½-180
5
3
-0.74028-0.73888-0.72489
New York Yankees
Milwaukee Brewers
47.8%
52.2%
-136
+125
-135
+128
-1½+125
+1½-141
-1½+140
+1½-145
6
7
-0.83144-0.83716-0.64967
Cincinnati Reds
Texas Rangers
55.8%
44.2%
+152
-166
+155
-165
+1½-140
-1½+125
+1½-135
-1½+120
1
2
-0.49218-0.48848-0.81690
Tampa Bay Rays
Chicago White Sox
47.4%
52.6%
-225
+202
-220
+201
-1½-135
+1½+118
-1½-135
+1½+120
4
9
-1.12840-1.12147-0.64253
Cleveland Indians
Atlanta Braves
41.7%
58.3%
+232
-263
+235
-260
+1½+115
-1½-132
+1½+110
-1½-128
2
6
-0.34764-0.34595-0.54020
Chicago Cubs
Boston Red Sox
39.8%
60.2%
-108
-102
-103
-105

+1½-220
-1½+192
7
1
-0.67930-0.69788-0.92206
St. Louis Cardinals
New York Mets
44.5%
55.5%
+112
-122
+115
-122
+1½-195
-1½+172
+1½-185
-1½+165
4
2
-0.77245-0.78001-0.80919
Washington Nationals
Miami Marlins
38.4%
61.6%
+111
-121
+114
-122
+1½-190
-1½+165
+1½-190
-1½+170
3
1
-0.76791-0.77751-0.95649
Los Angeles Dodgers
Toronto Blue Jays
52.4%
47.6%
-119
+109
-117
+113
-1½+134
+1½-150
-1½+135
+1½-150
12
2
-0.63156-0.62633-0.64682
Oakland Athletics
Baltimore Orioles
56.2%
43.8%
+242
-275
+263
-280
+1½+120
-1½-138
+1½+130
-1½-140
3
2
-1.25502-1.30148-0.57561
Kansas City Royals
Detroit Tigers
48.0%
52.0%
+112
-122
+119
-125
+1½-193
-1½+170
+1½-185
-1½+170
8
0
-0.77245-0.79600-0.73464
Oakland Athletics
New York Yankees
44.8%
55.2%
+243
-277
+235
-260
+1½+115
-1½-135
+1½+125
-1½-128
3
1
-1.25850-1.22946-0.80397
Los Angeles Dodgers
Washington Nationals
68.5%
31.5%
-167
+153
-169
+155
-1½-102
+1½-110
-1½-104
+1½-110
2
1
-0.48977-0.48503-0.37813
Load More Games

Season Prediction Results

 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks10-1 (0.000)0-0.82716 
Sportsbooks10-1 (0.000)0-0.83218 
DRatings10-1 (0.000)0-1.10612
-0.27896
-0.27394

Season Simulation

 Regular SeasonPostseason
#TeamWLMake PlayoffsWin DivisionWin Conf.Conf. Champ.World Series

Predictions Methodology

Here we use computer estimates from the Inference Index to predict future Major League baseball games. We use previous score and pitcher data to best attempt to estimate the results of each game. The predictions do not account for injuries, or any other factors that may cause the outcome to be swayed in one direction or another. There is a lot of randomness, particularly in baseball, so there will always be some error in the prediction.

Beginning in the 2014 season, we have begun including probable starting pitcher into the calculation. If there is a late change in the starting pitcher for a team and it is not reflected below then the projections will not be an accurate assessment on the game. The current projection system for Major League Baseball games is at Level 3, our highest level of analysis. The Predictor should be used for entertainment purposes only.