MLB Baseball Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Games for September 20, 2024

TimeTeamsPitchersWinBest
ML
Best
Spread
RunsTotal
Runs
Best
O/U

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

More on Bet Value
More Details
New York Yankees (69-52)
Oakland Athletics (68-53)
Gerrit Cole
J.T. Ginn
54.2%
45.8%
-182
+166
-183
+176
-1½-110
+1½-105
-1½-110
+1½+100
4.64
4.20
8.84
o8+100
u7½+100
o8+100
u8-110
Chicago White Sox (71-50)
San Diego Padres (67-56)
Garrett Crochet
Joe Musgrove
46.4%
53.6%
+242
-275
+245
-250
+1½+115
-1½-132
+1½+110
-1½-120
4.27
4.65
8.92
o7-103
u7-115
o7+105
u7-120
Overall Bet Value Active
All Bet Values Active
Colorado Rockies (55-66)
Los Angeles Dodgers (75-46)
Kyle Freeland
Ryan Brasier
33.0%
67.0%
+219
-247
+221
-240
+1½+107
-1½-125
+1½+110
-1½-123
4.26
6.02
10.28
o8½-115
u8½-105
o8½-110
u8½-105
Games for Sep 19, 2024

Games In Progress

TimeTeamsOrig.
Win %
Closing
ML
Closing
Spread
Orig. Total
Runs
Closing
O/U
PeriodCurrent
Score
Pittsburgh Pirates (42-79)
Cincinnati Reds (65-57)
35.1%
64.9%
+116
-126
+116
-117
+1½-176
-1½+160
+1½-180
-1½+170
9.28
o9-117
u9+100
o9-105
u9-105
7th
TOP
1
8
Toronto Blue Jays (63-56)
Tampa Bay Rays (74-47)
46.1%
53.9%
-117
+107
-110
+113

-1½+160
+1½-160
9.01
o8-105
u8-115
o7½-115
u7½+100
6th
BOT
0
1
Detroit Tigers (58-64)
Baltimore Orioles (38-81)
46.5%
53.5%
+138
-150
+147
-154
+1½-150
-1½+132
+1½-150
-1½+131
8.93
o7½-110
u7½-106
o7½-105
u7½+100
6th
TOP
0
5
Philadelphia Phillies (61-59)
New York Mets (60-60)
47.3%
52.7%
-127
+117
-114
+115

+1½-240
-1½+208
8.52
o7½-105
u7½-115
o7½+100
u7½-115
4th
BOT
8
2
Atlanta Braves (65-56)
Miami Marlins (51-70)
48.4%
51.6%
-212
+191
-200
+185
-1½-137
+1½+120
-1½-125
+1½+112
8.71
o9-105
u9-110
o9+100
u8½+105
5th
TOP
2
3
Minnesota Twins (54-67)
Boston Red Sox (69-54)
41.5%
58.5%
-115
+105
-112
+108
-1½+135
+1½-155
-1½+145
+1½-155
9.91
o8½+100
u8+100
o8-110
u8½-115
5th
TOP
0
1
Seattle Mariners (65-56)
Texas Rangers (42-78)
52.2%
47.8%
+112
-122
+117
-118
+1½-205
-1½+180
+1½-200
-1½+180
10.56
o7-105
u7-115
o7+100
u7-105
2nd
TOP
0
0
Arizona Diamondbacks (40-81)
Milwaukee Brewers (74-47)
39.0%
61.0%
-132
+121
-128
+120
-1½+124
+1½-140
-1½+135
+1½-145
7.77
o8½-114
u8½-105
o8½-105
u8½-105
2nd
TOP
1
0
Los Angeles Angels (61-61)
Houston Astros (70-50)
32.3%
67.7%
+214
-240
+225
-245
+1½+100
-1½-120
+1½+100
-1½-118
7.83
o8-105
u8-113
o7½-120
u7½+100
2nd
BOT
0
0
San Francisco Giants (78-43)
Kansas City Royals (52-67)
57.3%
42.7%
+182
-200
+176
-190
+1½-115
-1½+100
+1½-118
-1½+100
8.48
o8½-117
u8½+100
o8½-115
u8½+100
1st
BOT
1
0
Cleveland Indians (58-61)
St. Louis Cardinals (61-58)
49.0%
51.0%
+107
-117
+102
-110
+1½-197
-1½+180
+1½-211
-1½+185
9.05
o8-114
u8-105
o8-115
u8-105
2nd
TOP
0
0

Completed Games

TimeTeamsWinBest
ML
Best
Spread
Final
Runs
Sportsbook
Log Loss
DRatings
Log Loss
Colorado Rockies
Atlanta Braves
43.8%
56.2%
+241
-274
+244
-274
+1½+115
-1½-133
+1½+115
-1½-122
3
1
-1.25225-1.25850-0.82579
Washington Nationals
Pittsburgh Pirates
53.7%
46.3%
+112
-122
+113
-116
+1½-195
-1½+170
+1½-187
-1½+175
4
9
-0.61967-0.62818-0.77104
Philadelphia Phillies
Miami Marlins
51.7%
48.3%
-224
+205
-220
+205
-1½-154
+1½+135
-1½-135
+1½+131
5
2
-0.38814-0.38995-0.65952
Arizona Diamondbacks
San Francisco Giants
34.9%
65.1%
+142
-155
+150
-156
+1½-160
-1½+142
+1½-145
-1½+145
2
3
-0.51869-0.50464-0.42998
Seattle Mariners
Oakland Athletics
40.9%
59.1%
-134
+123
-134
+129
-1½+125
+1½-145
-1½+125
+1½-138
6
4
-0.57834-0.56676-0.89289
Houston Astros
Cincinnati Reds
52.4%
47.6%
-145
+133
-146
+139
-1½+105
+1½-119
-1½+103
+1½-120
0
1
-0.86669-0.88312-0.74267
Minnesota Twins
Tampa Bay Rays
39.9%
60.1%
-154
+141
-145
+142
-1½+110
+1½-129
-1½+115
+1½-130
4
3
-0.52140-0.52957-0.91957
Arizona Diamondbacks
San Francisco Giants
38.3%
61.7%
-128
+118
-126
+120
-1½+130
+1½-147
-1½+127
+1½-145
6
4
-0.59724-0.59626-0.96022
Detroit Tigers
San Diego Padres
32.3%
67.7%
+164
-179
+176
-184
+1½-127
-1½+110
+1½-130
-1½+117
5
6
-0.46399-0.44420-0.38998
Seattle Mariners
Oakland Athletics
40.9%
59.1%
-138
+127
-129
+128
-1½+120
+1½-138
-1½+125
+1½-140
16
3
-0.56518-0.57583-0.89289
Los Angeles Dodgers
Los Angeles Angels
56.9%
43.1%
-194
+177
-190
+181
-1½-134
+1½+120
-1½-123
+1½+115
1
10
-1.03950-1.04418-0.84104
New York Yankees
Texas Rangers
60.1%
39.9%
-109
-101
-109
+102
-1½+150
+1½-163
-1½+146
+1½-165
6
10
-0.71192-0.71953-0.91987
Cleveland Indians
Kansas City Royals
49.3%
50.7%
+115
-125
+116
-121
+1½-177
-1½+157
+1½-175
-1½+160
1
4
-0.60825-0.61278-0.67828
St. Louis Cardinals
Milwaukee Brewers
40.7%
59.3%
+106
-116
+110
-112
+1½-205
-1½+185
+1½-200
-1½+185
3
2
-0.74492-0.74642-0.89899
Pittsburgh Pirates
Chicago Cubs
40.9%
59.1%
+188
-208
+189
-205
+1½-112
-1½-105
+1½-115
-1½+100
0
12
-0.41486-0.41529-0.52530
Colorado Rockies
Atlanta Braves
39.9%
60.1%
+234
-265
+245
-265
+1½+115
-1½-132
+1½+115
-1½-126
2
5
-0.34528-0.33593-0.50951
Load More Games

Season Prediction Results

 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks11-0 (1.000)0-0.50556 
Sportsbooks11-0 (1.000)0-0.51208 
DRatings11-0 (1.000)0-0.64821
-0.14265
-0.13613

Season Simulation

 Regular SeasonPostseason
#TeamWLMake PlayoffsWin DivisionWin Conf.Conf. Champ.World Series

Predictions Methodology

Here we use computer estimates from the Inference Index to predict future Major League baseball games. We use previous score and pitcher data to best attempt to estimate the results of each game. The predictions do not account for injuries, or any other factors that may cause the outcome to be swayed in one direction or another. There is a lot of randomness, particularly in baseball, so there will always be some error in the prediction.

Beginning in the 2014 season, we have begun including probable starting pitcher into the calculation. If there is a late change in the starting pitcher for a team and it is not reflected below then the projections will not be an accurate assessment on the game. The current projection system for Major League Baseball games is at Level 3, our highest level of analysis. The Predictor should be used for entertainment purposes only.