MLB Baseball Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Games for September 21, 2024

TimeTeamsPitchersWinBest
ML
Best
Spread
RunsTotal
Runs
Best
O/U

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

More on Bet Value
More Details
Pittsburgh Pirates (42-79)
Cincinnati Reds (65-57)
Jared Jones
Rhett Lowder
36.4%
63.6%
+105
-115
+110
-115
+1½-195
-1½+170
+1½-187
-1½+175
3.83
5.26
9.09
o8½-115
u8½-105
o8½-115
u8½-105
Washington Nationals (52-68)
Chicago Cubs (54-69)
MacKenzie Gore
Kyle Hendricks
45.0%
55.0%
+122
-133
+125
-133


4.33
4.86
9.19


Detroit Tigers (58-64)
Baltimore Orioles (38-81)
Reese Olson
Cade Povich
50.1%
49.9%
+112
-122
+110
-115
+1½-190
-1½+165
+1½-187
-1½+175
4.75
4.73
9.48
o8½-105
u8½-115
o8½-105
u8½-115
Philadelphia Phillies (61-59)
New York Mets (60-60)
Ranger Suarez
Sean Manaea
46.6%
53.4%
-105
-105
+102
-105

+1½-215
-1½+195
4.07
4.43
8.50
o7½-103
u7½-115
o7½+100
u7½-120
Volatility Bet Value Active
Atlanta Braves (65-56)
Miami Marlins (51-70)
Max Fried
Undecided Undecided
56.4%
43.6%

-251
+224

-1½-158
+1½+139
4.09
3.42
7.51

o8-110
u8-110
Toronto Blue Jays (63-56)
Tampa Bay Rays (74-47)
Yariel Rodriguez
Taj Bradley
46.5%
53.5%
+118
-128
+119
-128
+1½-180
-1½+160
+1½-180
-1½+160
4.29
4.66
8.95
o7½-115
u7½+100
o7½-120
u8-115
Minnesota Twins (54-67)
Boston Red Sox (69-54)
Pablo Lopez
Kutter Crawford
41.5%
58.5%
-127
+117
-125
+115
-1½+130
+1½-150
-1½+130
+1½-148
4.60
5.50
10.10
o8+100
u8-110
o8-105
u8-105
San Francisco Giants (78-43)
Kansas City Royals (52-67)
Landen Roupp
Brady Singer
54.8%
45.2%
+132
-144
+135
-144
+1½-160
-1½+140
+1½-154
-1½+140
4.44
3.93
8.37
o8½+100
u8+100
o8½+105
u8½-110
Seattle Mariners (65-56)
Texas Rangers (42-78)
Emerson Hancock
Max Scherzer
52.2%
47.8%
+124
-135
+125
-135
+1½-175
-1½+155
+1½-170
-1½+155
5.32
5.10
10.42
o8-110
u8-110
o8+100
u8-115
Arizona Diamondbacks (40-81)
Milwaukee Brewers (74-47)
Merrill Kelly
Aaron Civale
33.9%
66.1%
-105
-105
+100
-105
+1½-210
-1½+180

3.18
4.85
8.03
o8-125
u8½-110
o8½+100
u8½-120
Los Angeles Angels (61-61)
Houston Astros (70-50)
Reid Detmers
Ronel Blanco
40.0%
60.0%
+211
-237
+220
-237
+1½-105
-1½-110
+1½-105
-1½-113
4.04
5.09
9.13
o8-105
u8-105
o8-105
u8-110
Cleveland Indians (58-61)
St. Louis Cardinals (61-58)
Matthew Boyd
Miles Mikolas
45.7%
54.3%
-132
+121
-130
+122
-1½+125
+1½-145
-1½+125
+1½-143
4.15
4.60
8.75
o8-105
u8-115
o8+100
u8-105
Chicago White Sox (71-50)
San Diego Padres (67-56)
Chris Flexen
Martin Perez
46.4%
53.6%
+232
-260
+235
-260
+1½+100
-1½-120
+1½+105
-1½-120
4.27
4.65
8.92
o8-115
u8+100
o8-120
u8+100
New York Yankees (69-52)
Oakland Athletics (68-53)
Carlos Rodon
JP Sears
47.3%
52.7%
-170
+156
-172
+160
-1½+100
+1½-115
-1½+100
+1½-113
4.67
4.96
9.63
o8+100
u8-120
o8+100
u8-120
Colorado Rockies (55-66)
Los Angeles Dodgers (75-46)
Cal Quantrill
Walker Buehler
33.5%
66.5%
+238
-270
+240
-270
+1½+110
-1½-125
+1½+110
-1½-125
4.27
5.98
10.25
o8½-120
u8½+105
o8½-115
u8½+100
Games for Sep 20, 2024
Games for Sep 22, 2024

Games In Progress

TimeTeamsOrig.
Win %
Closing
ML
Closing
Spread
Orig. Total
Runs
Closing
O/U
PeriodCurrent
Score
Minnesota Twins (54-67)
Boston Red Sox (69-54)
41.5%
58.5%
-115
+105
-112
+108
-1½+135
+1½-155
-1½+145
+1½-155
9.91
o8½+100
u8+100
o8-110
u8½-115
11th
BOT
1
1
Seattle Mariners (65-56)
Texas Rangers (42-78)
52.2%
47.8%
+112
-122
+117
-118
+1½-205
-1½+180
+1½-200
-1½+180
10.56
o7-105
u7-115
o7+100
u7-105
9th
BOT
8
2
Arizona Diamondbacks (40-81)
Milwaukee Brewers (74-47)
39.0%
61.0%
-132
+121
-128
+120
-1½+124
+1½-140
-1½+135
+1½-145
7.77
o8½-114
u8½-105
o8½-105
u8½-105
8th
BOT
7
4
Los Angeles Angels (61-61)
Houston Astros (70-50)
32.3%
67.7%
+214
-240
+225
-245
+1½+100
-1½-120
+1½+100
-1½-118
7.83
o8-105
u8-113
o7½-120
u7½+100
8th
TOP
7
9
San Francisco Giants (78-43)
Kansas City Royals (52-67)
57.3%
42.7%
+182
-200
+176
-190
+1½-115
-1½+100
+1½-118
-1½+100
8.48
o8½-117
u8½+100
o8½-115
u8½+100
9th
BOT
2
0
New York Yankees (69-52)
Oakland Athletics (68-53)
52.6%
47.4%
-178
+163
-185
+176
-1½-115
+1½-103
-1½-110
+1½+100
8.84
o8+102
u8-120
o8+100
u8-110
5th
BOT
1
1
Chicago White Sox (71-50)
San Diego Padres (67-56)
46.4%
53.6%
+243
-277
+245
-265
+1½+110
-1½-130
+1½+115
-1½-110
8.92
o7+100
u7-117
o7+105
u7-120
5th
BOT
0
0
Colorado Rockies (55-66)
Los Angeles Dodgers (75-46)
33.0%
67.0%
+231
-262
+233
-240
+1½+110
-1½-125
+1½+110
-1½-125
10.28
o8½-115
u8½-105
o8½-110
u8½-105
3rd
BOT
1
0

Completed Games

TimeTeamsWinBest
ML
Best
Spread
Final
Runs
Sportsbook
Log Loss
DRatings
Log Loss
Los Angeles Dodgers
Los Angeles Angels
56.9%
43.1%
-194
+177
-190
+181
-1½-134
+1½+120
-1½-123
+1½+115
1
10
-1.03950-1.04418-0.84104
New York Yankees
Texas Rangers
60.1%
39.9%
-109
-101
-109
+102
-1½+150
+1½-163
-1½+146
+1½-165
6
10
-0.71192-0.71953-0.91987
Cleveland Indians
Kansas City Royals
49.3%
50.7%
+115
-125
+116
-121
+1½-177
-1½+157
+1½-175
-1½+160
1
4
-0.60825-0.61278-0.67828
St. Louis Cardinals
Milwaukee Brewers
40.7%
59.3%
+106
-116
+110
-112
+1½-205
-1½+185
+1½-200
-1½+185
3
2
-0.74492-0.74642-0.89899
Pittsburgh Pirates
Chicago Cubs
40.9%
59.1%
+188
-208
+189
-205
+1½-112
-1½-105
+1½-115
-1½+100
0
12
-0.41486-0.41529-0.52530
Colorado Rockies
Atlanta Braves
39.9%
60.1%
+234
-265
+245
-265
+1½+115
-1½-132
+1½+115
-1½-126
2
5
-0.34528-0.33593-0.50951
Boston Red Sox
New York Mets
50.9%
49.1%
+104
-114
+106
-115


3
8
-0.65243-0.64582-0.71182
Minnesota Twins
Tampa Bay Rays
39.9%
60.1%
-115
+105
-111
+111
-1½+145
+1½-165
-1½+146
+1½-160
4
9
-0.74028-0.74670-0.50864
Houston Astros
Cincinnati Reds
52.4%
47.6%
-138
+127
-137
+130
-1½+110
+1½-125
-1½+110
+1½-120
5
12
-0.83993-0.84567-0.74267
Washington Nationals
Miami Marlins
47.9%
52.1%
-142
+130
-140
+132
-1½+115
+1½-133
-1½+120
+1½-135
3
4
-0.85426-0.85583-0.65137
Chicago White Sox
Baltimore Orioles
60.9%
39.1%
+299
-345
+310
-330
+1½+150
-1½-169
+1½+160
-1½-162
8
1
-1.40936-1.42225-0.49531
Philadelphia Phillies
Toronto Blue Jays
43.0%
57.0%
-128
+118
-126
+122
-1½+131
+1½-150
-1½+140
+1½-135
4
2
-0.59724-0.59220-0.84364
Arizona Diamondbacks
San Francisco Giants
33.6%
66.4%
-110
+100
-104
+103
-1½+145
+1½-165
-1½+155
+1½-165
8
7
-0.67015-0.67615-1.09035
Seattle Mariners
Oakland Athletics
42.5%
57.5%
-155
+142
-151
+142
-1½+100
+1½-120
-1½+110
+1½-123
2
3
-0.90461-0.89848-0.55344
Los Angeles Dodgers
Los Angeles Angels
57.3%
42.7%
-173
+158
-175
+164
-1½-120
+1½+102
-1½-123
+1½+110
6
2
-0.47726-0.46703-0.55699
New York Yankees
Texas Rangers
58.4%
41.6%
-152
+139
-155
+152
-1½+105
+1½-125
-1½+100
+1½-115
4
7
-0.89265-0.92889-0.87625
Load More Games

Season Prediction Results

 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks74-3 (0.571)0-0.69027 
Sportsbooks74-3 (0.571)0-0.68670 
DRatings75-2 (0.714)0-0.63532
0.05495
0.05138

Season Simulation

 Regular SeasonPostseason
#TeamWLMake PlayoffsWin DivisionWin Conf.Conf. Champ.World Series

Predictions Methodology

Here we use computer estimates from the Inference Index to predict future Major League baseball games. We use previous score and pitcher data to best attempt to estimate the results of each game. The predictions do not account for injuries, or any other factors that may cause the outcome to be swayed in one direction or another. There is a lot of randomness, particularly in baseball, so there will always be some error in the prediction.

Beginning in the 2014 season, we have begun including probable starting pitcher into the calculation. If there is a late change in the starting pitcher for a team and it is not reflected below then the projections will not be an accurate assessment on the game. The current projection system for Major League Baseball games is at Level 3, our highest level of analysis. The Predictor should be used for entertainment purposes only.