MLB Baseball Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Games for May 4, 2026

TimeTeamsPitchersWinBest
ML
Best
Spread
RunsTotal
Runs
Best
O/U

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

More on Bet Value
More Details
New York Mets (60-60)
Colorado Rockies (55-66)
UNDECIDED UNDECIDED
Tomoyuki Sugano
51.1%
48.9%

-145
+131

-1½+105
+1½-125
5.15
5.04
10.19

o10½-110
u10½-110
Philadelphia Phillies (61-59)
Miami Marlins (51-70)
Aaron Nola
Janson Junk
51.7%
48.3%
-118
+107
-110
+105
-1½+140
+1½-158
-1½+140
+1½-160
4.56
4.39
8.95
o8½-115
u8½-105
o8½-115
u8½-105
Boston Red Sox (69-54)
Detroit Tigers (58-64)
Payton Tolle
Tarik Skubal
58.2%
41.8%
+189
-210
+200
-220
+1½-118
-1½+105
+1½-120
-1½+100
5.33
4.47
9.80
o7+100
u7-120
o7+100
u7-120
Toronto Blue Jays (63-56)
Tampa Bay Rays (74-47)
UNDECIDED UNDECIDED
Nick Martinez
46.5%
53.5%
+104
-115
+100
-110
+1½-210
-1½+180
+1½-205
-1½+180
4.29
4.66
8.95
o8-110
u8-110
o8-105
u8-115
Baltimore Orioles (38-81)
New York Yankees (69-52)
Shane Baz
Cam Schlittler
32.4%
67.6%
+171
-190
+180
-195
+1½-120
-1½+110
+1½-125
-1½+110
4.63
6.44
11.07
o8½-110
u8½-110
o8½-105
u8½-110
Cincinnati Reds (65-57)
Chicago Cubs (54-69)
Chase Petty
Edward Cabrera
51.6%
48.4%
+170
-189
+180
-190

+1½-105
-1½-115
5.54
5.37
10.91

o11½+100
u11½-110
Cleveland Indians (58-61)
Kansas City Royals (52-67)
Tanner Bibee
Michael Wacha
49.3%
50.7%
+104
-115
+108
-110
+1½-195
-1½+170
+1½-190
-1½+175
4.67
4.75
9.42
o8½-120
u8½+105
o8½-115
u8½+100
Volatility Bet Value Active
Milwaukee Brewers (74-47)
St. Louis Cardinals (61-58)
Chad Patrick
Kyle Leahy
53.0%
47.0%
-110
+100
-108
+105
-1½+153
+1½-175
-1½+145
+1½-160
4.69
4.38
9.07
o8½+100
u8+100
o8-115
u8-105
Volatility Bet Value Active
Los Angeles Dodgers (75-46)
Houston Astros (70-50)
Yoshinobu Yamamoto
Steven Okert
50.6%
49.4%
-198
+178
-210
+185
-1½-125
+1½+105
-1½-125
+1½+110
4.34
4.28
8.62
o9+100
u9-115
o9+100
u9-115
Chicago White Sox (71-50)
Los Angeles Angels (61-61)
Davis Martin
Jose Soriano
51.7%
48.3%
+136
-150
+145
-152
+1½-160
-1½+140
+1½-155
-1½+140
5.04
4.86
9.90
o7½-105
u7½-110
o7½-105
u7½-110
Atlanta Braves (65-56)
Seattle Mariners (65-56)
JR Ritchie
Logan Gilbert
52.7%
47.3%
+151
-165
+152
-160
+1½-150
-1½+130
+1½-145
-1½+135
4.83
4.54
9.37
o7½+100
u7½-110
o7½+100
u7½-110
San Diego Padres (67-56)
San Francisco Giants (78-43)
Randy Vasquez
UNDECIDED UNDECIDED
46.6%
53.4%
-143
+130
-145
+130
-1½+115
+1½-135
-1½+115
+1½-130
3.93
4.29
8.22
o8-115
u8-105
o8-115
u8-105
Games for May 3, 2026
Games for May 5, 2026

Games In Progress

TimeTeamsOrig.
Win %
Closing
ML
Closing
Spread
Orig. Total
Runs
Closing
O/U
PeriodCurrent
Score
Texas Rangers (42-78)
Detroit Tigers (58-64)
45.3%
54.7%
+104
-114
+110
-116
+1½-205
-1½+180
+1½-200
-1½+185
9.88
o8½+100
u8½-120
o8½-105
u8+105
7th
BOT
1
5

Completed Games

TimeTeamsWinBest
ML
Best
Spread
Final
Runs
Sportsbook
Log Loss
DRatings
Log Loss
Chicago White Sox
Oakland Athletics
47.9%
52.1%
+141
-156
+144
-151
+1½-142
-1½+130
+1½-140
-1½+125
6
7
-0.51935-0.51955-0.65225
San Francisco Giants
Washington Nationals
54.9%
45.1%
-103
-107
-102
+100
-1½+151
+1½-170
-1½+155
+1½-165
7
6
-0.70249-0.68824-0.60039
Tampa Bay Rays
Pittsburgh Pirates
61.6%
38.4%
+129
-142
+140
-144
+1½-173
-1½+152
+1½-155
-1½+162
8
7
-0.85174-0.88228-0.48501
New York Mets
Chicago Cubs
46.8%
53.2%
+103
-113
+107
-112
+1½-205
-1½+180

2
4
-0.65676-0.64942-0.63168
Cincinnati Reds
Minnesota Twins
49.7%
50.3%
+112
-123
+118
-122
+1½-185
-1½+163
+1½-190
-1½+170
5
4
-0.77442-0.78755-0.69842
Kansas City Royals
New York Yankees
36.4%
63.6%
+141
-150
+150
-151
+1½-150
-1½+138
+1½-145
-1½+135
4
13
-0.52565-0.50978-0.45282
Toronto Blue Jays
Arizona Diamondbacks
60.1%
39.9%
+122
-135
+125
-135
+1½-160
-1½+150
+1½-160
-1½+145
3
6
-0.57893-0.57304-0.91950
Texas Rangers
Seattle Mariners
49.9%
50.1%
+115
-127
+118
-125
+1½-200
-1½+174
+1½-200
-1½+175
5
0
-0.78975-0.79350-0.69471
Chicago White Sox
Oakland Athletics
46.1%
53.9%
+136
-150
+143
-153
+1½-145
-1½+126
+1½-135
-1½+135
9
2
-0.88211-0.90402-0.77421
San Diego Padres
Los Angeles Angels
52.2%
47.8%
+115
-127
+118
-125
+1½-180
-1½+157
+1½-170
-1½+160
0
8
-0.60506-0.60195-0.73731
Los Angeles Dodgers
Colorado Rockies
61.5%
38.5%
-295
+261
-300
+271
-1½-175
+1½+155
-1½-190
+1½+170
7
1
-0.31548-0.30703-0.48667
Cincinnati Reds
Minnesota Twins
49.7%
50.3%
+143
-158
+150
-157
+1½-150
-1½+130
+1½-140
-1½+135
2
1
-0.91153-0.92712-0.69842
St. Louis Cardinals
Houston Astros
38.7%
61.3%
+106
-116
+118
-123
+1½-185
-1½+170
+1½-178
-1½+165
9
4
-0.74492-0.78955-0.95039
Detroit Tigers
Boston Red Sox
35.8%
64.2%
+120
-126
+113
-121
+1½-185
-1½+170
+1½-190
-1½+170
0
1
-0.59626-0.61923-0.44281
Milwaukee Brewers
Miami Marlins
55.2%
44.8%
-102
-108
+100
-110
+1½-210
-1½+180
+1½-200
-1½+180
7
5
-0.70719-0.71668-0.59441
Kansas City Royals
New York Yankees
36.4%
63.6%
+149
-165
+160
-168
+1½-145
-1½+125
+1½-140
-1½+125
2
4
-0.49774-0.47844-0.45282
Load More Games

Season Prediction Results

 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks169-7 (0.562)0-0.66262 
Sportsbooks1610-6 (0.625)0-0.65867 
DRatings169-7 (0.562)0-0.66629
-0.00367
-0.00762

Season Simulation

 Regular SeasonPostseason
#TeamWLMake PlayoffsWin DivisionWin Conf.Conf. Champ.World Series

Predictions Methodology

Here we use computer estimates from the Inference Index to predict future Major League baseball games. We use previous score and pitcher data to best attempt to estimate the results of each game. The predictions do not account for injuries, or any other factors that may cause the outcome to be swayed in one direction or another. There is a lot of randomness, particularly in baseball, so there will always be some error in the prediction.

Beginning in the 2014 season, we have begun including probable starting pitcher into the calculation. If there is a late change in the starting pitcher for a team and it is not reflected below then the projections will not be an accurate assessment on the game. The current projection system for Major League Baseball games is at Level 3, our highest level of analysis. The Predictor should be used for entertainment purposes only.