MLB Baseball Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Games for September 21, 2024

TimeTeamsPitchersWinBest
ML
Best
Spread
RunsTotal
Runs
Best
O/U

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

More on Bet Value
More Details
Pittsburgh Pirates (42-79)
Cincinnati Reds (65-57)
Jared Jones
Rhett Lowder
36.4%
63.6%
+111
-121
+110
-115
+1½-190
-1½+170
+1½-187
-1½+175
3.83
5.26
9.09
o8½-115
u8½-105
o8½-115
u8½-105
Washington Nationals (52-68)
Chicago Cubs (54-69)
MacKenzie Gore
Kyle Hendricks
45.0%
55.0%
+122
-133
+125
-133

+1½-164
-1½+145
4.33
4.86
9.19

o8½-105
u8½-115
Detroit Tigers (58-64)
Baltimore Orioles (38-81)
Reese Olson
Cade Povich
50.1%
49.9%
+112
-122
+110
-115
+1½-190
-1½+165
+1½-187
-1½+175
4.75
4.73
9.48
o8½-105
u8½-115
o8½-105
u8½-115
Philadelphia Phillies (61-59)
New York Mets (60-60)
Ranger Suarez
Sean Manaea
46.6%
53.4%
-105
-105
+102
-105
+1½-220
-1½+195
+1½-215
-1½+195
4.07
4.43
8.50
o7½-103
u7½-115
o7½+100
u7½-120
Volatility Bet Value Active
Atlanta Braves (65-56)
Miami Marlins (51-70)
Max Fried
Adam Oller
61.9%
38.1%

-250
+224

-1½-150
+1½+139
4.38
3.13
7.51

o8-110
u8-110
Toronto Blue Jays (63-56)
Tampa Bay Rays (74-47)
Yariel Rodriguez
Taj Bradley
46.5%
53.5%
+118
-128
+119
-128
+1½-180
-1½+160
+1½-180
-1½+160
4.29
4.66
8.95
o7½-115
u7½+100
o7½-120
u8-115
Minnesota Twins (54-67)
Boston Red Sox (69-54)
Pablo Lopez
Kutter Crawford
41.5%
58.5%
-132
+125
-130
+127
-1½+130
+1½-145
-1½+130
+1½-138
4.60
5.50
10.10
o8+100
u8-110
o8-105
u8-105
Volatility Bet Value Active
San Francisco Giants (78-43)
Kansas City Royals (52-67)
Landen Roupp
Brady Singer
54.8%
45.2%
+138
-150
+135
-145
+1½-155
-1½+140
+1½-154
-1½+140
4.44
3.93
8.37
o8½+100
u8+100
o8½+105
u8½-110
Seattle Mariners (65-56)
Texas Rangers (42-78)
Emerson Hancock
Max Scherzer
52.2%
47.8%
+124
-135
+125
-135
+1½-175
-1½+155
+1½-170
-1½+155
5.32
5.10
10.42
o8-110
u8-110
o8+100
u8-115
Arizona Diamondbacks (40-81)
Milwaukee Brewers (74-47)
Merrill Kelly
Aaron Civale
33.9%
66.1%
-103
-105
+100
-105
+1½-210
-1½+180

3.18
4.85
8.03
o8-125
u8½-110
o8½+100
u8½-120
Los Angeles Angels (61-61)
Houston Astros (70-50)
Reid Detmers
Ronel Blanco
40.0%
60.0%
+211
-237
+220
-237
+1½-105
-1½-110
+1½-105
-1½-113
4.04
5.09
9.13
o8-105
u8-105
o8-105
u8-110
Cleveland Indians (58-61)
St. Louis Cardinals (61-58)
Matthew Boyd
Miles Mikolas
45.7%
54.3%
-131
+121
-130
+122
-1½+130
+1½-145
-1½+125
+1½-143
4.15
4.60
8.75
o8-105
u8-115
o8+100
u8-105
Chicago White Sox (71-50)
San Diego Padres (67-56)
Chris Flexen
Martin Perez
46.4%
53.6%
+238
-260
+235
-260
+1½+117
-1½-120
+1½+105
-1½-120
4.27
4.65
8.92
o8-115
u8+100
o8-120
u8+100
Volatility Bet Value Active
New York Yankees (69-52)
Oakland Athletics (68-53)
Carlos Rodon
JP Sears
48.2%
51.8%
-170
+156
-172
+160
-1½+100
+1½-115
-1½+100
+1½-113
4.72
4.91
9.63
o8+100
u8-120
o8+100
u8-120
Colorado Rockies (55-66)
Los Angeles Dodgers (75-46)
Cal Quantrill
Walker Buehler
33.5%
66.5%
+238
-270
+240
-270
+1½+110
-1½-125
+1½+110
-1½-125
4.27
5.98
10.25
o9+100
u8½+100
o8½-115
u8½+100
Volatility Bet Value Active
Games for Sep 20, 2024
Games for Sep 22, 2024

Games In Progress

TimeTeamsOrig.
Win %
Closing
ML
Closing
Spread
Orig. Total
Runs
Closing
O/U
PeriodCurrent
Score
Chicago White Sox (71-50)
San Diego Padres (67-56)
46.4%
53.6%
+243
-277
+245
-265
+1½+110
-1½-130
+1½+115
-1½-110
8.92
o7+100
u7-117
o7+105
u7-120
10th
TOP
2
2
Colorado Rockies (55-66)
Los Angeles Dodgers (75-46)
33.0%
67.0%
+231
-262
+233
-240
+1½+110
-1½-125
+1½+110
-1½-125
10.28
o8½-115
u8½-105
o8½-110
u8½-105
FINAL
FINAL
4
6

Completed Games

TimeTeamsWinBest
ML
Best
Spread
Final
Runs
Sportsbook
Log Loss
DRatings
Log Loss
Chicago White Sox
Baltimore Orioles
60.9%
39.1%
+299
-345
+310
-330
+1½+150
-1½-169
+1½+160
-1½-162
8
1
-1.40936-1.42225-0.49531
Philadelphia Phillies
Toronto Blue Jays
43.0%
57.0%
-128
+118
-126
+122
-1½+131
+1½-150
-1½+140
+1½-135
4
2
-0.59724-0.59220-0.84364
Arizona Diamondbacks
San Francisco Giants
33.6%
66.4%
-110
+100
-104
+103
-1½+145
+1½-165
-1½+155
+1½-165
8
7
-0.67015-0.67615-1.09035
Seattle Mariners
Oakland Athletics
42.5%
57.5%
-155
+142
-151
+142
-1½+100
+1½-120
-1½+110
+1½-123
2
3
-0.90461-0.89848-0.55344
Los Angeles Dodgers
Los Angeles Angels
57.3%
42.7%
-173
+158
-175
+164
-1½-120
+1½+102
-1½-123
+1½+110
6
2
-0.47726-0.46703-0.55699
New York Yankees
Texas Rangers
58.4%
41.6%
-152
+139
-155
+152
-1½+105
+1½-125
-1½+100
+1½-115
4
7
-0.89265-0.92889-0.87625
Cleveland Indians
Kansas City Royals
46.8%
53.2%
-132
+121
-130
+124
-1½+125
+1½-144
-1½+127
+1½-145
7
1
-0.58515-0.58212-0.75922
St. Louis Cardinals
Milwaukee Brewers
38.9%
61.1%
+138
-150
+139
-140
+1½-152
-1½+135
+1½-155
-1½+141
7
4
-0.88707-0.87304-0.94531
Pittsburgh Pirates
Chicago Cubs
38.3%
61.7%
-114
+104
-115
+107
-1½+145
+1½-162
-1½+145
+1½-157
5
0
-0.65243-0.64352-0.95988
Colorado Rockies
Atlanta Braves
39.6%
60.4%
+299
-345
+305
-350
+1½+127
-1½-145
+1½+135
-1½-145
0
3
-0.28011-0.27570-0.50375
Boston Red Sox
New York Mets
49.7%
50.3%
+115
-125
+124
-124
+1½-170
-1½+150
+1½-170
-1½+155
2
7
-0.60825-0.59137-0.68732
Philadelphia Phillies
Toronto Blue Jays
43.0%
57.0%
+100
-110
+103
-108
+1½-198
-1½+175
+1½-190
-1½+176
10
9
-0.71668-0.71980-0.84364
Minnesota Twins
Tampa Bay Rays
39.9%
60.1%
-101
-109
+100
-105
+1½-215
-1½+190
+1½-210
-1½+184
1
2
-0.67472-0.68116-0.50864
Washington Nationals
Miami Marlins
50.2%
49.8%
-103
-107
+100
-109
+1½-205
-1½+180
+1½-200
-1½+180
6
2
-0.70249-0.71445-0.69015
Chicago White Sox
Baltimore Orioles
60.9%
39.1%
+282
-325
+290
-320
+1½+137
-1½-157
+1½+140
-1½-155
0
9
-0.29440-0.29008-0.94002
New York Yankees
Texas Rangers
65.1%
34.9%
-183
+167
-177
+165
-1½-129
+1½+110
-1½-120
+1½+105
8
4
-0.45692-0.46409-0.42954
Load More Games

Season Prediction Results

 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks138-5 (0.615)0-0.67184 
Sportsbooks138-5 (0.615)0-0.66616 
DRatings139-4 (0.692)0-0.65453
0.01731
0.01162

Season Simulation

 Regular SeasonPostseason
#TeamWLMake PlayoffsWin DivisionWin Conf.Conf. Champ.World Series

Predictions Methodology

Here we use computer estimates from the Inference Index to predict future Major League baseball games. We use previous score and pitcher data to best attempt to estimate the results of each game. The predictions do not account for injuries, or any other factors that may cause the outcome to be swayed in one direction or another. There is a lot of randomness, particularly in baseball, so there will always be some error in the prediction.

Beginning in the 2014 season, we have begun including probable starting pitcher into the calculation. If there is a late change in the starting pitcher for a team and it is not reflected below then the projections will not be an accurate assessment on the game. The current projection system for Major League Baseball games is at Level 3, our highest level of analysis. The Predictor should be used for entertainment purposes only.