MLB Baseball Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Games for October 2, 2024

TimeTeamsPitchersWinBest
ML
Best
Spread
RunsTotal
Runs
Best
O/U

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

More on Bet Value
More Details
Detroit Tigers (58-64)
Houston Astros (70-50)
Tyler Holton
Hunter Brown
34.3%
65.7%
+149
-163
+152
-160
+1½-148
-1½+130
+1½-145
-1½+131
3.21
4.84
8.05
o7½-105
u7½-110
o7½-110
u7½-105
Kansas City Royals (52-67)
Baltimore Orioles (38-81)
Seth Lugo
Zach Eflin
51.2%
48.8%
+144
-157
+141
-147
+1½-161
-1½+141
+1½-160
-1½+146
5.08
4.95
10.03
o7½-110
u7½-105
o7½-105
u7½-110
New York Mets (60-60)
Milwaukee Brewers (74-47)
Sean Manaea
Frankie Montas
42.9%
57.1%
-109
-101
-103
-103


3.92
4.66
8.58
o7½-115
u7½+100
o7½-120
u7½+100
Atlanta Braves (65-56)
San Diego Padres (67-56)
Max Fried
Joe Musgrove
53.2%
46.8%




3.80
3.46
7.26


Games for Oct 1, 2024

Games In Progress

TimeTeamsOrig.
Win %
Closing
ML
Closing
Spread
Orig. Total
Runs
Closing
O/U
PeriodCurrent
Score
Atlanta Braves (65-56)
San Diego Padres (67-56)
47.9%
52.1%
+172
-188
+175
-182
+1½-126
-1½+110
+1½-130
-1½+120
8.74
o7½-104
u7½-115
o7½+105
u7+105
7th
BOT
0
3

Completed Games

TimeTeamsWinBest
ML
Best
Spread
Final
Runs
Sportsbook
Log Loss
DRatings
Log Loss
Oakland Athletics
New York Yankees
47.1%
52.9%
+212
-238
+213
-229
+1½+100
-1½-120
+1½+100
-1½-115
3
7
-0.37513-0.37775-0.63590
Detroit Tigers
Tampa Bay Rays
38.6%
61.4%
-110
+100
-110
+102

+1½-230
-1½+200
5
7
-0.71668-0.72177-0.48722
Los Angeles Dodgers
Washington Nationals
68.5%
31.5%
-170
+156
-170
+162
-1½-115
+1½-105
-1½-110
+1½-105
8
2
-0.48268-0.47387-0.37813
Milwaukee Brewers
Pittsburgh Pirates
60.9%
39.1%
-120
+110
-118
+110
-1½+140
+1½-160

3
2
-0.62755-0.63113-0.49564
Philadelphia Phillies
Cincinnati Reds
49.5%
50.5%
+130
-142
+135
-145
+1½-170
-1½+150
+1½-160
-1½+143
4
7
-0.55443-0.54173-0.68308
Boston Red Sox
Cleveland Indians
53.1%
46.9%
+113
-123
+118
-127
+1½-183
-1½+163
+1½-180
-1½+165
8
0
-0.77696-0.79735-0.63280
Baltimore Orioles
Los Angeles Angels
37.3%
62.7%
-126
+116
-125
+116
-1½+125
+1½-143
-1½+125
+1½-140
6
5
-0.60453-0.60613-0.98628
New York Mets
San Francisco Giants
42.9%
57.1%
-106
-104
-104
+100
-1½+155
+1½-173
-1½+155
+1½-175
8
2
-0.68852-0.68349-0.84632
Arizona Diamondbacks
St. Louis Cardinals
41.6%
58.4%
+112
-120
+106
-110
+1½-210
-1½+185

1
5
-0.62315-0.65583-0.53792
New York Mets
San Francisco Giants
43.9%
56.1%
+121
-132
+124
-132
+1½-190
-1½+165
+1½-180
-1½+162
1
5
-0.58515-0.57921-0.57784
Baltimore Orioles
Los Angeles Angels
37.1%
62.9%
-144
+132
-145
+142
-1½+104
+1½-120
-1½+108
+1½-110
4
7
-0.86254-0.88882-0.46362
San Diego Padres
Colorado Rockies
52.8%
47.2%
-144
+132
-140
+138
-1½+105
+1½-125
-1½+107
+1½-120
4
7
-0.86254-0.87060-0.75014
Seattle Mariners
Texas Rangers
52.2%
47.8%
-114
+104
-113
+108
-1½+140
+1½-158
-1½+140
+1½-155
4
0
-0.65243-0.64512-0.64930
Arizona Diamondbacks
St. Louis Cardinals
40.1%
59.9%
+125
-136
+128
-131
+1½-165
-1½+145
+1½-165
-1½+155
14
1
-0.83144-0.82986-0.91477
Houston Astros
Chicago Cubs
57.1%
42.9%
-108
-102
-105
+100
-1½+140
+1½-158
-1½+145
+1½-159
2
7
-0.70719-0.70528-0.84683
Chicago White Sox
Minnesota Twins
53.2%
46.8%
+250
-285
+245
-270
+1½+120
-1½-130
+1½+121
-1½-135
5
6
-0.32640-0.33448-0.75918
Load More Games

Season Prediction Results

 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks30-3 (0.000)0-0.84327 
Sportsbooks30-3 (0.000)0-0.85099 
DRatings30-3 (0.000)0-0.86634
-0.02307
-0.01535

Season Simulation

 Regular SeasonPostseason
#TeamWLMake PlayoffsWin DivisionWin Conf.Conf. Champ.World Series

Predictions Methodology

Here we use computer estimates from the Inference Index to predict future Major League baseball games. We use previous score and pitcher data to best attempt to estimate the results of each game. The predictions do not account for injuries, or any other factors that may cause the outcome to be swayed in one direction or another. There is a lot of randomness, particularly in baseball, so there will always be some error in the prediction.

Beginning in the 2014 season, we have begun including probable starting pitcher into the calculation. If there is a late change in the starting pitcher for a team and it is not reflected below then the projections will not be an accurate assessment on the game. The current projection system for Major League Baseball games is at Level 3, our highest level of analysis. The Predictor should be used for entertainment purposes only.