MLB Baseball Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Games for October 2, 2024

TimeTeamsPitchersWinBest
ML
Best
Spread
RunsTotal
Runs
Best
O/U

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

More on Bet Value
More Details
Kansas City Royals (52-67)
Baltimore Orioles (38-81)
Seth Lugo
Zach Eflin
51.2%
48.8%
+129
-140
+138
-142
+1½-166
-1½+150
+1½-170
-1½+155
5.12
4.99
10.11
o7½+105
u7½-120
o7½+105
u7½-120
All Bet Values Active
New York Mets (60-60)
Milwaukee Brewers (74-47)
Sean Manaea
Frankie Montas
42.9%
57.1%
+108
-118
+106
-113
+1½-195
-1½+175
+1½-205
-1½+181
3.92
4.66
8.58
o7½-116
u7½+100
o7½-115
u7½-105
Atlanta Braves (65-56)
San Diego Padres (67-56)
Max Fried
Joe Musgrove
53.2%
46.8%
+104
-114
+105
-113
+1½-215
-1½+185
+1½-220
-1½+195
3.80
3.46
7.26
o6½-120
u6½+105
o6½-115
u6½+100
Games for Oct 1, 2024

Games In Progress

TimeTeamsOrig.
Win %
Closing
ML
Closing
Spread
Orig. Total
Runs
Closing
O/U
PeriodCurrent
Score
Detroit Tigers (58-64)
Houston Astros (70-50)
34.3%
65.7%
+161
-176
+162
-165
+1½-138
-1½+120
+1½-140
-1½+128
8.37
o7½-104
u7½-105
o7½+100
u7½-110
7th
BOT
1
0

Completed Games

TimeTeamsWinBest
ML
Best
Spread
Final
Runs
Sportsbook
Log Loss
DRatings
Log Loss
Los Angeles Angels
Boston Red Sox
43.1%
56.9%
+120
-130
+121
-125
+1½-170
-1½+152
+1½-170
-1½+155
4
5
-0.59012-0.59580-0.56319
Pittsburgh Pirates
Philadelphia Phillies
35.1%
64.9%
+174
-190
+168
-180
+1½-125
-1½+105
+1½-130
-1½+115
9
2
-1.02789-1.00169-1.04589
Chicago Cubs
Seattle Mariners
45.7%
54.3%
-138
+127
-135
+130
-1½+125
+1½-144
-1½+120
+1½-135
4
1
-0.56518-0.56352-0.78368
San Diego Padres
Los Angeles Dodgers
41.5%
58.5%
+191
-211
+190
-200
+1½-110
-1½-109
+1½-110
-1½-105
2
5
-0.40979-0.41690-0.53613
St. Louis Cardinals
Arizona Diamondbacks
50.4%
49.6%
+102
-112
+104
-112

-1½+155
+1½-165
2
4
-0.66116-0.65643-0.70090
New York Yankees
Cleveland Indians
58.3%
41.7%
-109
-101
+100
-108

+1½-200
-1½+180
8
2
-0.67472-0.71219-0.53933
Minnesota Twins
Detroit Tigers
51.3%
48.7%
+117
-127
+125
-132
+1½-173
-1½+153
+1½-165
-1½+146
4
1
-0.79483-0.82426-0.66656
San Francisco Giants
Tampa Bay Rays
45.2%
54.8%
+100
-110
+104
-105
+1½-212
-1½+185
+1½-210
-1½+195
11
2
-0.71668-0.71533-0.79443
Los Angeles Angels
Boston Red Sox
43.7%
56.3%
-110
+100
-107
+102
-1½+135
+1½-155
-1½+136
+1½-150
2
7
-0.71668-0.71498-0.57430
Atlanta Braves
Miami Marlins
54.0%
46.0%
-215
+194
-210
+190
-1½-137
+1½+125
-1½-125
+1½+120
1
5
-1.10081-1.08672-0.77618
Washington Nationals
Oakland Athletics
40.7%
59.3%
-125
+115
-123
+125
-1½+130
+1½-147
-1½+130
+1½-140
3
1
-0.60825-0.59099-0.89911
Milwaukee Brewers
Baltimore Orioles
61.3%
38.7%
+133
-145
+130
-139
+1½-165
-1½+145
+1½-160
-1½+150
11
5
-0.86669-0.84915-0.49012
Texas Rangers
Houston Astros
34.5%
65.5%
+120
-130
+121
-129
+1½-165
-1½+145
+1½-165
-1½+148
2
9
-0.59012-0.58960-0.42369
Pittsburgh Pirates
Philadelphia Phillies
37.3%
62.7%
+144
-157
+144
-153
+1½-150
-1½+130
+1½-155
-1½+145
3
4
-0.51336-0.51743-0.46665
Colorado Rockies
Toronto Blue Jays
39.7%
60.3%
+167
-183
+168
-180
+1½-129
-1½+110
+1½-121
-1½+105
3
5
-0.45692-0.45770-0.50644
Cincinnati Reds
Chicago White Sox
43.3%
56.7%
-126
+116
-123
+117
-1½+131
+1½-150
-1½+131
+1½-150
5
0
-0.60453-0.60732-0.83746
Load More Games

Season Prediction Results

 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks21-1 (0.500)0-0.65050 
Sportsbooks21-1 (0.500)0-0.65470 
DRatings21-1 (0.500)0-0.70114
-0.05064
-0.04645

Season Simulation

 Regular SeasonPostseason
#TeamWLMake PlayoffsWin DivisionWin Conf.Conf. Champ.World Series

Predictions Methodology

Here we use computer estimates from the Inference Index to predict future Major League baseball games. We use previous score and pitcher data to best attempt to estimate the results of each game. The predictions do not account for injuries, or any other factors that may cause the outcome to be swayed in one direction or another. There is a lot of randomness, particularly in baseball, so there will always be some error in the prediction.

Beginning in the 2014 season, we have begun including probable starting pitcher into the calculation. If there is a late change in the starting pitcher for a team and it is not reflected below then the projections will not be an accurate assessment on the game. The current projection system for Major League Baseball games is at Level 3, our highest level of analysis. The Predictor should be used for entertainment purposes only.