MLB Baseball Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Games for October 2, 2024

TimeTeamsPitchersWinBest
ML
Best
Spread
RunsTotal
Runs
Best
O/U

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

More on Bet Value
More Details
New York Mets (60-60)
Milwaukee Brewers (74-47)
Sean Manaea
Frankie Montas
42.9%
57.1%
+112
-122
+116
-122
+1½-190
-1½+170
+1½-195
-1½+180
3.92
4.66
8.58
o8+100
u7½+104
o7½-115
u7½+100
Atlanta Braves (65-56)
San Diego Padres (67-56)
Max Fried
Joe Musgrove
53.2%
46.8%
+106
-116
+110
-115
+1½-210
-1½+182
+1½-210
-1½+190
3.80
3.46
7.26
o6½-120
u6½+105
o6½-115
u6½+100
Games for Oct 1, 2024

Games In Progress

TimeTeamsOrig.
Win %
Closing
ML
Closing
Spread
Orig. Total
Runs
Closing
O/U
PeriodCurrent
Score
Kansas City Royals (52-67)
Baltimore Orioles (38-81)
51.2%
48.8%
+129
-140
+138
-142
+1½-165
-1½+150
+1½-170
-1½+155
10.11
o7½+105
u7½-125
o7½+105
u7½-120
6th
TOP
1
1

Completed Games

TimeTeamsWinBest
ML
Best
Spread
Final
Runs
Sportsbook
Log Loss
DRatings
Log Loss
Cincinnati Reds
Chicago White Sox
43.3%
56.7%
-126
+116
-123
+117
-1½+131
+1½-150
-1½+131
+1½-150
5
0
-0.60453-0.60732-0.83746
Kansas City Royals
New York Mets
40.4%
59.6%
+141
-154
+147
-151
+1½-148
-1½+130
+1½-145
-1½+136
11
7
-0.90064-0.91063-0.90649
Minnesota Twins
Detroit Tigers
51.3%
48.7%
-134
+124
-113
+110
-1½+130
+1½-143
-1½+145
+1½-155
11
5
-0.57638-0.64059-0.66656
New York Yankees
Cleveland Indians
52.8%
47.2%
-135
+124
-125
+117
-1½+125
+1½-145
-1½+130
+1½-148
3
2
-0.57499-0.60404-0.63864
San Diego Padres
Los Angeles Dodgers
38.8%
61.2%
+185
-204
+181
-190
+1½-110
-1½-110
+1½-110
-1½+105
8
7
-1.06900-1.04418-0.94647
Washington Nationals
Oakland Athletics
43.1%
56.9%
+116
-126
+117
-125
+1½-180
-1½+165
+1½-185
-1½+165
1
2
-0.60453-0.60404-0.56417
Chicago Cubs
Seattle Mariners
45.7%
54.3%
+115
-125
+115
-122
+1½-182
-1½+162
+1½-180
-1½+175
2
4
-0.60825-0.61323-0.61013
St. Louis Cardinals
Arizona Diamondbacks
53.7%
46.3%
+106
-116
+116
-118
+1½-195
-1½+170
+1½-185
-1½+170
9
6
-0.74492-0.77434-0.62191
Texas Rangers
Houston Astros
32.9%
67.1%
+109
-119
+112
-117
+1½-175
-1½+160
+1½-165
-1½+155
12
8
-0.75877-0.76222-1.11194
Minnesota Twins
Detroit Tigers
52.9%
47.1%
+104
-114
+105
-112
+1½-205
-1½+180
+1½-190
-1½+184
2
8
-0.65243-0.65406-0.75266
Cincinnati Reds
Chicago White Sox
43.3%
56.7%
-167
+153
-165
+157
-1½-110
+1½-107
-1½-110
+1½+100
11
1
-0.48977-0.48547-0.83746
Kansas City Royals
New York Mets
41.0%
59.0%
+124
-135
+125
-130
+1½-175
-1½+155
+1½-170
-1½+160
1
6
-0.57499-0.58016-0.52833
Los Angeles Angels
Boston Red Sox
41.8%
58.2%
+101
-111
+106
-109
+1½-195
-1½+170
+1½-190
-1½+180
7
0
-0.72144-0.72965-0.87115
Atlanta Braves
Miami Marlins
67.4%
32.6%
-187
+171
-193
+180
-1½-124
+1½+105
-1½-125
+1½+110
8
1
-0.44873-0.43320-0.39392
Colorado Rockies
Toronto Blue Jays
35.7%
64.3%
+198
-220
+201
-220
+1½-112
-1½-105
+1½-105
-1½-105
12
4
-1.11474-1.12147-1.02974
Milwaukee Brewers
Baltimore Orioles
56.7%
43.3%
-119
+109
-122
+115
-1½+136
+1½-150

11
1
-0.63156-0.61323-0.56782
Load More Games

Season Prediction Results

 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks21-1 (0.500)0-0.71334 
Sportsbooks21-1 (0.500)0-0.70719 
DRatings21-1 (0.500)0-0.86090
-0.14756
-0.15372

Season Simulation

 Regular SeasonPostseason
#TeamWLMake PlayoffsWin DivisionWin Conf.Conf. Champ.World Series

Predictions Methodology

Here we use computer estimates from the Inference Index to predict future Major League baseball games. We use previous score and pitcher data to best attempt to estimate the results of each game. The predictions do not account for injuries, or any other factors that may cause the outcome to be swayed in one direction or another. There is a lot of randomness, particularly in baseball, so there will always be some error in the prediction.

Beginning in the 2014 season, we have begun including probable starting pitcher into the calculation. If there is a late change in the starting pitcher for a team and it is not reflected below then the projections will not be an accurate assessment on the game. The current projection system for Major League Baseball games is at Level 3, our highest level of analysis. The Predictor should be used for entertainment purposes only.