MLB Baseball Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Games for October 2, 2024

TimeTeamsPitchersWinBest
ML
Best
Spread
RunsTotal
Runs
Best
O/U

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

More on Bet Value
More Details
Atlanta Braves (65-56)
San Diego Padres (67-56)
Max Fried
Joe Musgrove
53.2%
46.8%
+106
-116
+110
-115
+1½-210
-1½+185
+1½-200
-1½+186
3.80
3.46
7.26
o6½-114
u6½-105
o6½-115
u6½+105
Games for Oct 1, 2024

Games In Progress

TimeTeamsOrig.
Win %
Closing
ML
Closing
Spread
Orig. Total
Runs
Closing
O/U
PeriodCurrent
Score
New York Mets (60-60)
Milwaukee Brewers (74-47)
42.9%
57.1%
+121
-132
+120
-128
+1½-180
-1½+165
+1½-190
-1½+175
8.58
o7½-115
u7½+100
o7½-115
u7½+100
3rd
TOP
3
1

Completed Games

TimeTeamsWinBest
ML
Best
Spread
Final
Runs
Sportsbook
Log Loss
DRatings
Log Loss
Milwaukee Brewers
Baltimore Orioles
56.7%
43.3%
-119
+109
-122
+115
-1½+136
+1½-150

11
1
-0.63156-0.61323-0.56782
San Francisco Giants
Tampa Bay Rays
46.9%
53.1%
-106
-104
+100
-102

+1½-210
-1½+190
1
2
-0.69780-0.68824-0.63207
Pittsburgh Pirates
Philadelphia Phillies
36.4%
63.6%
+145
-158
+148
-155
+1½-140
-1½+130
+1½-146
-1½+135
5
2
-0.91644-0.91925-1.01121
Baltimore Orioles
Boston Red Sox
34.2%
65.8%
-124
+114
-124
+116
-1½+133
+1½-150
-1½+135
+1½-148
9
4
-0.61201-0.60776-1.07283
Pittsburgh Pirates
Philadelphia Phillies
36.4%
63.6%
+117
-127
+123
-128
+1½-172
-1½+152
+1½-160
-1½+146
1
5
-0.60086-0.58709-0.45221
Oakland Athletics
Texas Rangers
58.1%
41.9%
+171
-187
+175
-188
+1½-115
-1½-105
+1½-110
-1½-105
1
0
-1.01733-1.02786-0.54239
Houston Astros
Kansas City Royals
56.2%
43.8%
-122
+112
-120
+116
-1½+135
+1½-150
-1½+130
+1½-145
3
13
-0.77245-0.77849-0.82640
New York Mets
Atlanta Braves
36.4%
63.6%
+147
-160
+150
-160
+1½-137
-1½+120
+1½-130
-1½+120
16
4
-0.92425-0.93156-1.01156
Milwaukee Brewers
Cincinnati Reds
50.3%
49.7%
+127
-138
+129
-132
+1½-165
-1½+150
+1½-170
-1½+150
7
2
-0.83993-0.83418-0.68740
Oakland Athletics
Texas Rangers
58.1%
41.9%
+171
-187
+174
-185
+1½-119
-1½+100
+1½-110
-1½+102
2
6
-0.44873-0.44612-0.87074
Houston Astros
Kansas City Royals
58.6%
41.4%
-120
+110
-117
+112
-1½+130
+1½-148
-1½+140
+1½-152
2
11
-0.76336-0.76222-0.88276
Baltimore Orioles
Boston Red Sox
34.2%
65.8%
+102
-112
+101
-108
+1½-195
-1½+170
+1½-200
-1½+184
7
5
-0.72619-0.71474-1.07283
Miami Marlins
New York Yankees
37.7%
62.3%
+187
-207
+189
-204
+1½-105
-1½-115
+1½-105
-1½-105
5
2
-1.07675-1.07819-0.97524
Chicago Cubs
San Diego Padres
43.4%
56.6%
+139
-152
+144
-152
+1½-150
-1½+135
+1½-155
-1½+140
2
10
-0.52690-0.51849-0.56874
Chicago White Sox
Cleveland Indians
54.1%
45.9%
+222
-250
+231
-258
+1½+102
-1½-120
+1½+107
-1½-125
6
7
-0.36101-0.35010-0.77942
Tampa Bay Rays
Los Angeles Angels
51.7%
48.3%
-114
+104
-111
+108
-1½+133
+1½-150
-1½+139
+1½-155
4
2
-0.65243-0.64913-0.65981
Load More Games

Season Prediction Results

 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks31-2 (0.333)0-0.75836 
Sportsbooks31-2 (0.333)0-0.76280 
DRatings32-1 (0.667)0-0.79682
-0.03846
-0.03402

Season Simulation

 Regular SeasonPostseason
#TeamWLMake PlayoffsWin DivisionWin Conf.Conf. Champ.World Series

Predictions Methodology

Here we use computer estimates from the Inference Index to predict future Major League baseball games. We use previous score and pitcher data to best attempt to estimate the results of each game. The predictions do not account for injuries, or any other factors that may cause the outcome to be swayed in one direction or another. There is a lot of randomness, particularly in baseball, so there will always be some error in the prediction.

Beginning in the 2014 season, we have begun including probable starting pitcher into the calculation. If there is a late change in the starting pitcher for a team and it is not reflected below then the projections will not be an accurate assessment on the game. The current projection system for Major League Baseball games is at Level 3, our highest level of analysis. The Predictor should be used for entertainment purposes only.