MLB Baseball Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Games for October 3, 2024

TimeTeamsPitchersWinBest
ML
Best
Spread
RunsTotal
Runs
Best
O/U

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

More on Bet Value
More Details
New York Mets (60-60)
Milwaukee Brewers (74-47)
Jose Quintana
Tobias Myers
42.9%
57.1%
+114
-124
+118
-123
+1½-191
-1½+170
+1½-185
-1½+175
4.01
4.75
8.76
o7½+106
u7½-125
o7½+110
u7½-125
Games for Oct 2, 2024

Completed Games

TimeTeamsWinBest
ML
Best
Spread
Final
Runs
Sportsbook
Log Loss
DRatings
Log Loss
Atlanta Braves
Philadelphia Phillies
51.7%
48.3%
-130
+120
-127
+120
-1½+125
+1½-144
-1½+130
+1½-145
12
4
-0.59012-0.59470-0.65960
Toronto Blue Jays
Tampa Bay Rays
45.1%
54.9%
+118
-128
+125
-128
+1½-173
-1½+155
+1½-165
-1½+160
1
5
-0.59724-0.58315-0.59971
Minnesota Twins
Kansas City Royals
50.2%
49.8%
-113
+103
-112
+110
-1½+140
+1½-158
-1½+146
+1½-155
5
1
-0.65676-0.64257-0.68929
Washington Nationals
Cincinnati Reds
45.2%
54.8%
+167
-183
+161
-175
+1½-117
-1½+105
+1½-122
-1½+105
7
6
-1.00302-0.97867-0.79308
Pittsburgh Pirates
Miami Marlins
41.0%
59.0%
-106
-104
+100
-105

+1½-200
-1½+185
9
3
-0.68852-0.70528-0.89106
Cleveland Indians
Oakland Athletics
40.7%
59.3%
-122
+112
-125
+120
-1½+134
+1½-150
-1½+135
+1½-145
12
3
-0.61967-0.59784-0.89914
Los Angeles Angels
Baltimore Orioles
56.8%
43.2%
+148
-162
+155
-165
+1½-138
-1½+120
+1½-130
-1½+120
4
13
-0.50206-0.48848-0.83889
Detroit Tigers
Chicago White Sox
36.2%
63.8%
-129
+119
-124
+125
-1½+130
+1½-144
-1½+130
+1½-143
7
6
-0.59365-0.58938-1.01744
Milwaukee Brewers
New York Mets
50.7%
49.3%
+115
-125
+116
-120
+1½-190
-1½+170
+1½-180
-1½+168
7
6
-0.78592-0.77849-0.67877
St. Louis Cardinals
Los Angeles Dodgers
35.1%
64.9%
+199
-222
+210
-220
+1½+106
-1½-125
+1½+115
-1½-115
3
6
-0.39549-0.38472-0.43299
Boston Red Sox
Seattle Mariners
46.5%
53.5%
+129
-140
+133
-136
+1½-170
-1½+150
+1½-160
-1½+145
0
1
-0.55881-0.55661-0.62551
Cleveland Indians
Oakland Athletics
40.7%
59.3%
-127
+117
-122
+122
-1½+129
+1½-140
-1½+125
+1½-143
6
4
-0.60086-0.59866-0.89914
San Francisco Giants
San Diego Padres
47.0%
53.0%
+125
-136
+129
-135
+1½-170
-1½+150
+1½-165
-1½+155
8
3
-0.83144-0.83965-0.75449
Colorado Rockies
Arizona Diamondbacks
50.2%
49.8%
+210
-232
+220
-240
+1½+110
-1½-130
+1½+115
-1½-125
3
7
-0.37955-0.36652-0.69697
New York Yankees
Houston Astros
44.3%
55.7%
+108
-118
+110
-115
+1½-185
-1½+165
+1½-180
-1½+165
7
1
-0.75417-0.75294-0.81482
Pittsburgh Pirates
Miami Marlins
41.0%
59.0%
+133
-145
+134
-139
+1½-165
-1½+150
+1½-170
-1½+155
7
2
-0.86669-0.85906-0.89106
Load More Games

Season Prediction Results

 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks22-0 (1.000)0-0.61454 
Sportsbooks22-0 (1.000)0-0.61494 
DRatings21-1 (0.500)0-0.66006
-0.04552
-0.04512

Season Simulation

 Regular SeasonPostseason
#TeamWLMake PlayoffsWin DivisionWin Conf.Conf. Champ.World Series

Predictions Methodology

Here we use computer estimates from the Inference Index to predict future Major League baseball games. We use previous score and pitcher data to best attempt to estimate the results of each game. The predictions do not account for injuries, or any other factors that may cause the outcome to be swayed in one direction or another. There is a lot of randomness, particularly in baseball, so there will always be some error in the prediction.

Beginning in the 2014 season, we have begun including probable starting pitcher into the calculation. If there is a late change in the starting pitcher for a team and it is not reflected below then the projections will not be an accurate assessment on the game. The current projection system for Major League Baseball games is at Level 3, our highest level of analysis. The Predictor should be used for entertainment purposes only.