MLB Baseball Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Games for October 5, 2024

TimeTeamsPitchersWinBest
ML
Best
Spread
RunsTotal
Runs
Best
O/U

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

More on Bet Value
More Details
Detroit Tigers (58-64)
Cleveland Indians (58-61)
Undecided Undecided
Tanner Bibee
43.3%
56.7%
+130
-142
+135
-142
+1½-166
-1½+150
+1½-166
-1½+155
3.89
4.59
8.48
o7-115
u7-105
o7-115
u7+100
Kansas City Royals (52-67)
New York Yankees (69-52)
Michael Wacha
Gerrit Cole
31.7%
68.3%
+175
-192
+181
-190
+1½-130
-1½+110
+1½-125
-1½+112
3.30
5.18
8.48
o8+100
u7½+100
o7½-120
u8-105
San Diego Padres (67-56)
Los Angeles Dodgers (75-46)
Dylan Cease
Jack Flaherty
36.0%
64.0%
+110
-132
+115
-121
+1½-185
-1½+165
+1½-190
-1½+170
3.50
4.97
8.47
o7½-115
u8-120
o7½-115
u7½+105
Games for Oct 4, 2024

Games In Progress

TimeTeamsOrig.
Win %
Closing
ML
Closing
Spread
Orig. Total
Runs
Closing
O/U
PeriodCurrent
Score
New York Mets (60-60)
Milwaukee Brewers (74-47)
42.9%
57.1%
+109
-119
+115
-120
+1½-192
-1½+170
+1½-190
-1½+180
8.76
o7½+110
u7½-119
o7½+110
u7½-125
2nd
TOP
0
0

Completed Games

TimeTeamsWinBest
ML
Best
Spread
Final
Runs
Sportsbook
Log Loss
DRatings
Log Loss
Toronto Blue Jays
Tampa Bay Rays
44.6%
55.4%
+109
-119
+110
-117
+1½-190
-1½+165
+1½-190
-1½+175
2
8
-0.63156-0.63297-0.59010
Atlanta Braves
Philadelphia Phillies
49.1%
50.9%
-133
+122
-124
+122
-1½+140
+1½-160
-1½+145
+1½-160
9
3
-0.58173-0.59539-0.71143
Milwaukee Brewers
New York Mets
46.4%
53.6%
-103
-107
+100
-107
+1½-200
-1½+177
+1½-190
-1½+190
3
1
-0.70249-0.70991-0.76733
Boston Red Sox
Seattle Mariners
51.2%
48.8%
+129
-140
+138
-137
+1½-160
-1½+145
+1½-156
-1½+150
6
4
-0.84838-0.86531-0.66845
Colorado Rockies
Arizona Diamondbacks
46.2%
53.8%
+188
-208
+197
-204
+1½-105
-1½-108
+1½+100
-1½-104
1
16
-0.41486-0.40663-0.62070
Cleveland Indians
Oakland Athletics
46.1%
53.9%
-136
+125
-132
+135
-1½+125
+1½-135
-1½+130
+1½-140
8
0
-0.57167-0.55841-0.77531
Chicago Cubs
Texas Rangers
51.1%
48.9%
+109
-119
+110
-115
+1½-190
-1½+170
+1½-190
-1½+175
3
4
-0.63156-0.63673-0.71523
Detroit Tigers
Chicago White Sox
34.7%
65.3%
-154
+141
-147
+142
-1½+105
+1½-125
-1½+110
+1½-125
1
0
-0.52140-0.52728-1.05734
Minnesota Twins
Kansas City Royals
50.2%
49.8%
-118
+108
-118
+113
-1½+131
+1½-150
-1½+140
+1½-150
4
1
-0.63563-0.62452-0.68929
Toronto Blue Jays
Tampa Bay Rays
46.1%
53.9%
+132
-144
+129
-135
+1½-170
-1½+150
+1½-164
-1½+160
8
2
-0.86254-0.83965-0.77442
New York Yankees
Houston Astros
45.8%
54.2%
+131
-143
+135
-138
+1½-154
-1½+135
+1½-145
-1½+135
5
4
-0.85840-0.85977-0.77993
St. Louis Cardinals
Los Angeles Dodgers
34.5%
65.5%
+220
-245
+215
-234
+1½+120
-1½-131
+1½+110
-1½-125
1
7
-0.36468-0.37372-0.42312
San Francisco Giants
San Diego Padres
41.6%
58.4%
-104
-106
-105
-102
+1½-215
-1½+185
+1½-211
-1½+195
4
6
-0.68852-0.70029-0.53702
Pittsburgh Pirates
Miami Marlins
39.5%
60.5%
+112
-122
+114
-120
+1½-200
-1½+175
+1½-194
-1½+175
6
5
-0.77245-0.77347-0.93003
Washington Nationals
Cincinnati Reds
42.3%
57.7%
+134
-146
+137
-142
+1½-155
-1½+135
+1½-150
-1½+138
2
8
-0.54235-0.54178-0.55047
Los Angeles Angels
Baltimore Orioles
49.4%
50.6%
+167
-183
+170
-178
+1½-125
-1½+105
+1½-120
-1½+105
3
11
-0.45692-0.45643-0.68035
Load More Games

Season Prediction Results

 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks22-0 (1.000)0-0.61454 
Sportsbooks22-0 (1.000)0-0.61494 
DRatings21-1 (0.500)0-0.66006
-0.04552
-0.04512

Season Simulation

 Regular SeasonPostseason
#TeamWLMake PlayoffsWin DivisionWin Conf.Conf. Champ.World Series

Predictions Methodology

Here we use computer estimates from the Inference Index to predict future Major League baseball games. We use previous score and pitcher data to best attempt to estimate the results of each game. The predictions do not account for injuries, or any other factors that may cause the outcome to be swayed in one direction or another. There is a lot of randomness, particularly in baseball, so there will always be some error in the prediction.

Beginning in the 2014 season, we have begun including probable starting pitcher into the calculation. If there is a late change in the starting pitcher for a team and it is not reflected below then the projections will not be an accurate assessment on the game. The current projection system for Major League Baseball games is at Level 3, our highest level of analysis. The Predictor should be used for entertainment purposes only.