MLB Baseball Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Games for October 5, 2024

TimeTeamsPitchersWinBest
ML
Best
Spread
RunsTotal
Runs
Best
O/U

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

More on Bet Value
More Details
Detroit Tigers (58-64)
Cleveland Indians (58-61)
Undecided Undecided
Tanner Bibee
43.3%
56.7%
+130
-142
+135
-142
+1½-166
-1½+150
+1½-166
-1½+155
3.89
4.59
8.48
o7-115
u7-105
o7-115
u7+100
Kansas City Royals (52-67)
New York Yankees (69-52)
Michael Wacha
Gerrit Cole
31.7%
68.3%
+175
-192
+181
-190
+1½-130
-1½+110
+1½-125
-1½+112
3.30
5.18
8.48
o8+100
u7½+100
o7½-120
u8-115
San Diego Padres (67-56)
Los Angeles Dodgers (75-46)
Dylan Cease
Yoshinobu Yamamoto
36.0%
64.0%
+118
-128
+120
-124
+1½-183
-1½+163
+1½-185
-1½+170
3.73
5.19
8.92
o7½-110
u7½-105
o7½-115
u7½+105
Games for Oct 4, 2024

Games In Progress

TimeTeamsOrig.
Win %
Closing
ML
Closing
Spread
Orig. Total
Runs
Closing
O/U
PeriodCurrent
Score
New York Mets (60-60)
Milwaukee Brewers (74-47)
42.9%
57.1%
+109
-119
+115
-120
+1½-192
-1½+170
+1½-190
-1½+180
8.76
o7½+110
u7½-119
o7½+110
u7½-125
8th
TOP
0
2

Completed Games

TimeTeamsWinBest
ML
Best
Spread
Final
Runs
Sportsbook
Log Loss
DRatings
Log Loss
Los Angeles Dodgers
Los Angeles Angels
57.5%
42.5%
-140
+120
-145
+125
-1½+115
+1½-135
-1½+110
+1½-130
3
4
-0.82563-0.84658-0.85569
Oakland Athletics
San Francisco Giants
45.0%
55.0%
+120
-140
+125
-140
+1½-165
-1½+145
+1½-165
-1½+145
3
1
-0.82563-0.83833-0.79860
Seattle Mariners
San Diego Padres
39.4%
60.6%
+129
-149
+125
-135
+1½-160
-1½+140
+1½-160
-1½+140
7
6
-0.86303-0.82968-0.93176
Cleveland Indians
Arizona Diamondbacks
52.6%
47.4%
+117
-137
+115
-130
+1½-190
-1½+165
+1½-195
-1½+170
1
6
-0.58623-0.60042-0.74608
Milwaukee Brewers
Colorado Rockies
55.0%
45.0%
+163
-183
+170
-190
+1½+105
-1½-125
+1½+100
-1½-120
1
6
-0.46248-0.44809-0.79944
St. Louis Cardinals
Chicago Cubs
48.8%
51.2%
+105
-125
+115
-130
+1½-160
-1½+140
+1½-160
-1½+140
7
2
-0.76029-0.79536-0.71707
Boston Red Sox
Texas Rangers
58.2%
41.8%
+115
-135
+125
-140
+1½-145
-1½+125
+1½-150
-1½+130
4
1
-0.80428-0.83833-0.54118
Atlanta Braves
Minnesota Twins
52.0%
48.0%
-140
+120
-135
+120
-1½+110
+1½-130
-1½+115
+1½-135
6
9
-0.82563-0.81706-0.73389
Detroit Tigers
Tampa Bay Rays
35.6%
64.4%
+104
-124
+110
-120
+1½-190
-1½+165
+1½-195
-1½+170
3
3
-0.69499-0.69545-0.73638
San Francisco Giants
Oakland Athletics
48.6%
51.4%
-115
-105
-115
-105
-1½+145
+1½-165
-1½+145
+1½-165
4
1
-0.67172-0.67172-0.72060
Seattle Mariners
San Diego Padres
39.4%
60.6%
+115
-135
+105
-120
+1½-180
-1½+160
+1½-190
-1½+175
4
1
-0.80428-0.75056-0.93176
Cleveland Indians
Arizona Diamondbacks
52.6%
47.4%
+115
-135
+120
-135
+1½-165
-1½+145
+1½-165
-1½+145
0
6
-0.59314-0.58291-0.74608
Los Angeles Angels
Los Angeles Dodgers
36.4%
63.6%
+175
-205
+170
-180
+1½-120
-1½+100
+1½-120
-1½+100
6
0
-1.04674-1.00641-1.01013
Boston Red Sox
Texas Rangers
58.2%
41.8%
+170
-195
+175
-200
+1½-110
-1½-110
+1½+100
-1½-120
9
2
-1.02415-1.04146-0.54118
Colorado Rockies
Milwaukee Brewers
38.8%
61.2%
+150
-170
+160
-175
+1½-120
-1½+100
+1½-120
-1½+100
1
10
-0.49182-0.47276-0.49039
St. Louis Cardinals
Chicago Cubs
48.8%
51.2%
+115
-135
+115
-135
+1½-142
-1½+122
+1½-150
-1½+130
6
3
-0.80428-0.80428-0.71707
Load More Games

Season Prediction Results

 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks00-0 (0.000)0 
Sportsbooks00-0 (0.000)0 
DRatings00-0 (0.000)0

Season Simulation

 Regular SeasonPostseason
#TeamWLMake PlayoffsWin DivisionWin Conf.Conf. Champ.World Series

Predictions Methodology

Here we use computer estimates from the Inference Index to predict future Major League baseball games. We use previous score and pitcher data to best attempt to estimate the results of each game. The predictions do not account for injuries, or any other factors that may cause the outcome to be swayed in one direction or another. There is a lot of randomness, particularly in baseball, so there will always be some error in the prediction.

Beginning in the 2014 season, we have begun including probable starting pitcher into the calculation. If there is a late change in the starting pitcher for a team and it is not reflected below then the projections will not be an accurate assessment on the game. The current projection system for Major League Baseball games is at Level 3, our highest level of analysis. The Predictor should be used for entertainment purposes only.