MLB Baseball Predictions

Updated

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Completed Games

TimeTeamsWinBest
ML
Best
Spread
Final
Runs
Sportsbook
Log Loss
DRatings
Log Loss
St. Louis Cardinals
Seattle Mariners
47.7%
52.3%
+189
-210
+194
-210
+1½-118
-1½+100
+1½-115
-1½-105
2
4
-0.41264-0.40687-0.64758
Cincinnati Reds
San Diego Padres
42.9%
57.1%
+123
-136
+130
-137
+1½-180
-1½+157
+1½-170
-1½+165
2
1
-0.82640-0.84567-0.84690
Tampa Bay Rays
Chicago White Sox
47.4%
52.6%
-125
+113
-126
+117
-1½+130
+1½-145
-1½+130
+1½-145
5
6
-0.78086-0.79290-0.64253
Chicago Cubs
Atlanta Braves
39.9%
60.1%
+149
-165
+150
-158
+1½-140
-1½+130
+1½-145
-1½+135
3
2
-0.93624-0.92862-0.91784
Houston Astros
Toronto Blue Jays
49.0%
51.0%
+138
-152
+139
-146
+1½-157
-1½+137
+1½-155
-1½+140
3
2
-0.89016-0.88312-0.71376
Detroit Tigers
New York Yankees
38.3%
61.7%
+147
-162
+150
-165
+1½-145
-1½+125
+1½-145
-1½+125
11
1
-0.92712-0.93869-0.95962
New York Mets
Philadelphia Phillies
46.4%
53.6%
+140
-155
+140
-145
+1½-155
-1½+140
+1½-155
-1½+150
3
11
-0.52206-0.53299-0.62370
Kansas City Royals
Cleveland Indians
44.4%
55.6%
-109
-101
-105
-104


4
3
-0.67472-0.69081-0.81198
Washington Nationals
Miami Marlins
47.9%
52.1%
+132
-146
+131
-140
+1½-165
-1½+145
+1½-160
-1½+150
3
8
-0.54595-0.55511-0.65137
Pittsburgh Pirates
Baltimore Orioles
46.7%
53.3%
-147
+133
-147
+135
-1½+125
+1½-140
-1½+125
+1½-135
1
2
-0.86991-0.87488-0.63002
Minnesota Twins
Los Angeles Angels
45.3%
54.7%
+104
-108
+107
-108
+1½-195
-1½+173
+1½-185
-1½+175
3
4
-0.66479-0.65772-0.60265
Arizona Diamondbacks
San Francisco Giants
33.6%
66.4%
+110
-121
+112
-122
+1½-190
-1½+170
+1½-190
-1½+175
5
3
-0.76535-0.77245-1.09035
Boston Red Sox
Oakland Athletics
46.9%
53.1%
-109
-101
-108
+102
-1½+135
+1½-155
-1½+145
+1½-155
4
5
-0.71192-0.71728-0.63277
Milwaukee Brewers
Texas Rangers
53.5%
46.5%
-120
+109
-120
+111
-1½+146
+1½-165
-1½+145
+1½-165
3
6
-0.76081-0.76589-0.76628
Colorado Rockies
Los Angeles Dodgers
36.3%
63.7%
+290
-330
+287
-330
+1½+145
-1½-160
+1½+143
-1½-150
2
7
-0.28827-0.29021-0.45099
Boston Red Sox
Oakland Athletics
47.0%
53.0%
+105
-116
+108
-107
+1½-183
-1½+165
+1½-185
-1½+175
6
0
-0.74238-0.73004-0.75545
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Season Prediction Results

 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks00-0 (0.000)0 
Sportsbooks00-0 (0.000)0 
DRatings00-0 (0.000)0

Season Simulation

 Regular SeasonPostseason
#TeamWLMake PlayoffsWin DivisionWin Conf.Conf. Champ.World Series

Predictions Methodology

Here we use computer estimates from the Inference Index to predict future Major League baseball games. We use previous score and pitcher data to best attempt to estimate the results of each game. The predictions do not account for injuries, or any other factors that may cause the outcome to be swayed in one direction or another. There is a lot of randomness, particularly in baseball, so there will always be some error in the prediction.

Beginning in the 2014 season, we have begun including probable starting pitcher into the calculation. If there is a late change in the starting pitcher for a team and it is not reflected below then the projections will not be an accurate assessment on the game. The current projection system for Major League Baseball games is at Level 3, our highest level of analysis. The Predictor should be used for entertainment purposes only.