MLB Baseball Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Games for September 21, 2024

TimeTeamsPitchersWinBest
ML
Best
Spread
RunsTotal
Runs
Best
O/U

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

More on Bet Value
More Details
Detroit Tigers (58-64)
Baltimore Orioles (38-81)
Reese Olson
Cade Povich
50.1%
49.9%
+121
-126
+125
-132
+1½-175
-1½+165
+1½-175
-1½+156
4.75
4.73
9.48
o8½-105
u8½-112
o8-115
u8½-115
Philadelphia Phillies (61-59)
New York Mets (60-60)
Ranger Suarez
Sean Manaea
46.6%
53.4%
+101
-111
+106
-107
+1½-210
-1½+190
+1½-210
-1½+193
4.07
4.43
8.50
o7½-105
u7½-113
o7½+100
u7½-110
Volatility Bet Value Active
Atlanta Braves (65-56)
Miami Marlins (51-70)
Max Fried
Adam Oller
61.9%
38.1%
-260
+231
-259
+232
-1½-140
+1½+139
-1½-160
+1½+145
4.40
3.16
7.56
o8-115
u8+100
o8½+100
u8+105
Volatility Bet Value Active
Toronto Blue Jays (63-56)
Tampa Bay Rays (74-47)
Yariel Rodriguez
Taj Bradley
46.5%
53.5%
+125
-135
+125
-132
+1½-175
-1½+160
+1½-180
-1½+166
4.29
4.66
8.95
o7½-105
u7½-105
o7½-105
u7½-110
Minnesota Twins (54-67)
Boston Red Sox (69-54)
Pablo Lopez
Kutter Crawford
41.5%
58.5%
-138
+136
-150
+140
-1½+125
+1½-128
-1½+110
+1½-125
4.56
5.45
10.01
o7½-116
u8-115
o8+105
u8-105
All Bet Values Active
Overall Bet Value Active
San Francisco Giants (78-43)
Kansas City Royals (52-67)
Landen Roupp
Brady Singer
54.8%
45.2%
+127
-138
+132
-138
+1½-160
-1½+140
+1½-160
-1½+146
4.45
3.94
8.39
o8-113
u8½-120
o8-105
u8-105
Overall Bet Value Active
Overall Bet Value Active
Seattle Mariners (65-56)
Texas Rangers (42-78)
Emerson Hancock
Dane Dunning
52.2%
47.8%
+118
-102
-107
+100

-1½+150
+1½-162
5.32
5.10
10.42
o8-110
u9-105
o9-110
u9-110
Volatility Bet Value Active
Arizona Diamondbacks (40-81)
Milwaukee Brewers (74-47)
Merrill Kelly
Aaron Civale
33.9%
66.1%
+103
-113
+102
-110
+1½-195
-1½+180
+1½-200
-1½+180
3.18
4.85
8.03
o8½-110
u8½+100
o8½-115
u8½+100
Los Angeles Angels (61-61)
Houston Astros (70-50)
Reid Detmers
Ronel Blanco
40.0%
60.0%
+190
-208
+210
-225
+1½-110
-1½-106
+1½-105
-1½-110
4.04
5.09
9.13
o7½-115
u8-110
o7½-110
u7½-110
Cleveland Indians (58-61)
St. Louis Cardinals (61-58)
Matthew Boyd
Miles Mikolas
45.7%
54.3%
-127
+117
-120
+114
-1½+130
+1½-149
-1½+135
+1½-145
4.17
4.63
8.80
o7½-115
u8-115
o7½-105
u7½-105
Chicago White Sox (71-50)
San Diego Padres (67-56)
Chris Flexen
Martin Perez
46.4%
53.6%
+242
-270
+250
-280
+1½+115
-1½-120
+1½+115
-1½-130
4.27
4.65
8.92
o8-110
u8-106
o8-110
u8-105
New York Yankees (69-52)
Oakland Athletics (68-53)
Carlos Rodon
JP Sears
48.2%
51.8%
-172
+157
-172
+160
-1½+100
+1½-113
-1½-105
+1½-110
4.72
4.91
9.63
o7½-120
u8-110
o8-110
u8-110
Overall Bet Value Active
Overall Bet Value Active
Colorado Rockies (55-66)
Los Angeles Dodgers (75-46)
Cal Quantrill
Walker Buehler
33.5%
66.5%
+246
-280
+240
-270
+1½+117
-1½-125
+1½+110
-1½-128
4.28
5.99
10.27
o9+100
u9-106
o9-110
u9-110
Games for Sep 20, 2024

Games In Progress

TimeTeamsOrig.
Win %
Closing
ML
Closing
Spread
Orig. Total
Runs
Closing
O/U
PeriodCurrent
Score
Washington Nationals (52-68)
Chicago Cubs (54-69)
45.0%
55.0%
+118
-128
+122
-126
+1½-175
-1½+159
+1½-175
-1½+174
9.19
o8-115
u8½-120
o8-105
u8-105
6th
TOP
5
0

Completed Games

TimeTeamsWinBest
ML
Best
Spread
Final
Runs
Sportsbook
Log Loss
DRatings
Log Loss
Oakland Athletics
Cincinnati Reds
49.2%
50.8%
+106
-116
+107
-110
+1½-183
-1½+170
+1½-185
-1½+168
9
6
-0.74492-0.73443-0.70976
Tampa Bay Rays
Seattle Mariners
53.0%
47.0%
+129
-139
+140
-137
+1½-170
-1½+157
+1½-165
-1½+160
2
6
-0.56010-0.54280-0.75445
Houston Astros
Philadelphia Phillies
52.4%
47.6%
-115
+105
-118
+115
-1½+137
+1½-150
-1½+130
+1½-145
10
0
-0.64814-0.62019-0.64554
Kansas City Royals
Cleveland Indians
44.4%
55.6%
+136
-148
+147
-155
+1½-157
-1½+140
+1½-160
-1½+145
5
7
-0.53652-0.51046-0.58695
Chicago Cubs
Pittsburgh Pirates
55.5%
44.5%
+142
-154
+152
-160
+1½-140
-1½+125
+1½-140
-1½+128
14
10
-0.90310-0.93639-0.58826
Baltimore Orioles
Los Angeles Dodgers
25.8%
74.2%
+167
-183
+168
-180
+1½-120
-1½+105
+1½-120
-1½+110
3
2
-1.00302-1.00169-1.35670
Tampa Bay Rays
Seattle Mariners
54.6%
45.4%
+151
-165
+157
-162
+1½-157
-1½+140
+1½-160
-1½+145
3
2
-0.94110-0.95130-0.60580
New York Mets
Arizona Diamondbacks
56.6%
43.4%
-107
-103
-101
-103

+1½-210
-1½+190
8
3
-0.68389-0.69802-0.56842
Los Angeles Angels
Detroit Tigers
52.9%
47.1%
+138
-150
+140
-147
+1½-149
-1½+135
+1½-145
-1½+135
2
6
-0.53079-0.53071-0.75305
Miami Marlins
Colorado Rockies
46.7%
53.3%
+132
-144
+133
-142
+1½-147
-1½+130
+1½-140
-1½+131
9
8
-0.86254-0.86171-0.76209
San Francisco Giants
Milwaukee Brewers
45.9%
54.1%
+103
-113
+106
-112
+1½-200
-1½+175
-1½+160
+1½-175
5
4
-0.73091-0.73635-0.77947
San Diego Padres
St. Louis Cardinals
51.0%
49.0%
-138
+127
-137
+132
-1½+120
+1½-138
-1½+120
+1½-135
7
5
-0.56518-0.55713-0.67397
Atlanta Braves
Minnesota Twins
52.0%
48.0%
-110
+100
-105
+101

+1½-210
-1½+190
8
6
-0.67015-0.67871-0.65400
Toronto Blue Jays
Boston Red Sox
48.2%
51.8%
+120
-130
+121
-128
+1½-170
-1½+150
+1½-160
-1½+153
3
6
-0.59012-0.59111-0.65782
New York Yankees
Washington Nationals
58.0%
42.0%
-255
+226
-240
+221
-1½-165
+1½+145
-1½-170
+1½+155
2
4
-1.20648-1.18352-0.86852
Oakland Athletics
Cincinnati Reds
49.2%
50.8%
+122
-133
+126
-135
+1½-159
-1½+139
+1½-155
-1½+141
5
4
-0.81855-0.83218-0.70976
Load More Games

Season Prediction Results

 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks1510-5 (0.667)0-0.63593 
Sportsbooks1510-5 (0.667)0-0.63055 
DRatings1511-4 (0.733)0-0.62245
0.01348
0.00809

Season Simulation

 Regular SeasonPostseason
#TeamWLMake PlayoffsWin DivisionWin Conf.Conf. Champ.World Series

Predictions Methodology

Here we use computer estimates from the Inference Index to predict future Major League baseball games. We use previous score and pitcher data to best attempt to estimate the results of each game. The predictions do not account for injuries, or any other factors that may cause the outcome to be swayed in one direction or another. There is a lot of randomness, particularly in baseball, so there will always be some error in the prediction.

Beginning in the 2014 season, we have begun including probable starting pitcher into the calculation. If there is a late change in the starting pitcher for a team and it is not reflected below then the projections will not be an accurate assessment on the game. The current projection system for Major League Baseball games is at Level 3, our highest level of analysis. The Predictor should be used for entertainment purposes only.