MLB Baseball Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Games for September 21, 2024

TimeTeamsPitchersWinBest
ML
Best
Spread
RunsTotal
Runs
Best
O/U

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

More on Bet Value
More Details
PostponedMinnesota Twins (54-67)
Boston Red Sox (69-54)
Pablo Lopez
Kutter Crawford
41.5%
58.5%
-138
+136
-143
+140
-1½+125
+1½-128
-1½+114
+1½-125
4.56
5.45
10.01
o7½-116
u8-115
o8+105
u8-110
All Bet Values Active
All Bet Values Active
Chicago White Sox (71-50)
San Diego Padres (67-56)
Chris Flexen
Martin Perez
46.4%
53.6%
+255
-292
+254
-280
+1½+122
-1½-140
+1½+117
-1½-130
4.27
4.65
8.92
o8-112
u8-105
o8-105
u8-105
New York Yankees (69-52)
Oakland Athletics (68-53)
Carlos Rodon
JP Sears
48.9%
51.1%
-169
+155
-163
+161
-1½-105
+1½-114
-1½+102
+1½-110
4.75
4.86
9.61
o8-110
u8-105
o8-110
u8-105
Overall Bet Value Active
All Bet Values Active
Colorado Rockies (55-66)
Los Angeles Dodgers (75-46)
Cal Quantrill
Walker Buehler
33.5%
66.5%
+243
-277
+240
-270
+1½+118
-1½-130
+1½+110
-1½-128
4.28
5.99
10.27
o9-115
u8+120
o9-110
u9-105
Games for Sep 20, 2024

Games In Progress

TimeTeamsOrig.
Win %
Closing
ML
Closing
Spread
Orig. Total
Runs
Closing
O/U
PeriodCurrent
Score
Seattle Mariners (65-56)
Texas Rangers (42-78)
52.2%
47.8%
+118
+100
-108
+100

-1½+145
+1½-162
10.42
o8-110
u9-110
o9-110
u9-110
4th
TOP
2
2
Arizona Diamondbacks (40-81)
Milwaukee Brewers (74-47)
33.9%
66.1%
-102
-108
-102
-101
+1½-210
-1½+180
+1½-210
-1½+192
8.03
o8-110
u8½-110
o8+100
u8½-110
5th
TOP
2
0
Los Angeles Angels (61-61)
Houston Astros (70-50)
40.0%
60.0%
+195
-217
+205
-225
+1½-110
-1½-110
+1½+100
-1½-110
9.13
o7½-115
u8-110
o7½-110
u8-110
4th
TOP
2
7
Cleveland Indians (58-61)
St. Louis Cardinals (61-58)
45.7%
54.3%
-123
+113
-122
+114
-1½+132
+1½-150
-1½+135
+1½-150
8.80
o7½-115
u8-115
o7½-105
u7½-105
4th
BOT
0
0

Completed Games

TimeTeamsWinBest
ML
Best
Spread
Final
Runs
Sportsbook
Log Loss
DRatings
Log Loss
Houston Astros
Philadelphia Phillies
52.4%
47.6%
+176
-193
+172
-181
+1½-125
-1½+115
+1½-125
-1½+115
2
3
-0.43829-0.45157-0.74314
Kansas City Royals
Cleveland Indians
44.4%
55.6%
+125
+107
+129
-138

+1½-166
-1½+160
9
4
-0.73570-0.84492-0.81198
Chicago Cubs
Pittsburgh Pirates
54.2%
45.8%
-101
-109
+104
-108
+1½-205
-1½+175
+1½-200
-1½+176
18
8
-0.71192-0.72233-0.61236
Kansas City Royals
Cleveland Indians
44.4%
55.6%
-125
+115
-120
+113
-1½+132
+1½-152
-1½+136
+1½-150
4
3
-0.60825-0.62096-0.81198
Houston Astros
Baltimore Orioles
61.7%
38.3%
-104
-106
-105
-103
+1½-205
-1½+180

6
3
-0.69780-0.68844-0.48269
San Francisco Giants
Seattle Mariners
54.6%
45.4%
+122
-133
+129
-135
+1½-182
-1½+162
+1½-180
-1½+167
3
4
-0.58173-0.56539-0.78961
Tampa Bay Rays
Los Angeles Dodgers
41.7%
58.3%
+202
-225
+211
-230
+1½-103
-1½-115
+1½+100
-1½-110
1
3
-0.39090-0.37936-0.53904
New York Mets
San Diego Padres
42.4%
57.6%
+106
-116
+110
-117
+1½-190
-1½+165
+1½-185
-1½+170
2
3
-0.64392-0.63297-0.55248
Milwaukee Brewers
Oakland Athletics
48.6%
51.4%
-142
+130
-140
+133
-1½+117
+1½-135
-1½+115
+1½-130
3
4
-0.85426-0.85830-0.66553
Philadelphia Phillies
Kansas City Royals
53.1%
46.9%
+124
-135
+128
-134
+1½-158
-1½+140
+1½-155
-1½+140
11
3
-0.82716-0.83536-0.63313
St. Louis Cardinals
Minnesota Twins
46.9%
53.1%
+121
-129
+132
-134
+1½-170
-1½+152
+1½-170
-1½+156
3
2
-0.80867-0.84525-0.75752
Detroit Tigers
Chicago White Sox
36.2%
63.8%
-150
+138
-145
+142
-1½+105
+1½-121
-1½+106
+1½-120
9
4
-0.53079-0.52957-1.01744
Texas Rangers
Cleveland Indians
41.7%
58.3%
+110
-120
+115
-122
+1½-190
-1½+170
+1½-180
-1½+170
2
4
-0.62755-0.61323-0.53996
Chicago Cubs
Miami Marlins
47.0%
53.0%
-163
+149
-159
+160
-1½-105
+1½-112
-1½-105
+1½-105
2
7
-0.93344-0.95402-0.63454
Los Angeles Angels
Toronto Blue Jays
38.9%
61.1%
+140
-153
+146
-155
+1½-149
-1½+130
+1½-140
-1½+137
2
8
-0.52415-0.51208-0.49263
Colorado Rockies
New York Yankees
37.8%
62.2%
+215
-242
+225
-250
+1½+115
-1½-135
+1½+115
-1½-133
3
10
-0.37063-0.35820-0.47562
Load More Games

Season Prediction Results

 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks107-3 (0.700)0-0.58226 
Sportsbooks107-3 (0.700)0-0.58478 
DRatings109-1 (0.900)0-0.59410
-0.01184
-0.00932

Season Simulation

 Regular SeasonPostseason
#TeamWLMake PlayoffsWin DivisionWin Conf.Conf. Champ.World Series

Predictions Methodology

Here we use computer estimates from the Inference Index to predict future Major League baseball games. We use previous score and pitcher data to best attempt to estimate the results of each game. The predictions do not account for injuries, or any other factors that may cause the outcome to be swayed in one direction or another. There is a lot of randomness, particularly in baseball, so there will always be some error in the prediction.

Beginning in the 2014 season, we have begun including probable starting pitcher into the calculation. If there is a late change in the starting pitcher for a team and it is not reflected below then the projections will not be an accurate assessment on the game. The current projection system for Major League Baseball games is at Level 3, our highest level of analysis. The Predictor should be used for entertainment purposes only.