MLB Baseball Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Games for September 21, 2024

TimeTeamsPitchersWinBest
ML
Best
Spread
RunsTotal
Runs
Best
O/U

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

More on Bet Value
More Details
PostponedMinnesota Twins (54-67)
Boston Red Sox (69-54)
Pablo Lopez
Kutter Crawford
41.5%
58.5%
-138
+136
-143
+140
-1½+125
+1½-128
-1½+114
+1½-125
4.56
5.45
10.01
o7½-116
u8-115
o8+105
u8-110
All Bet Values Active
All Bet Values Active
Games for Sep 20, 2024

Games In Progress

TimeTeamsOrig.
Win %
Closing
ML
Closing
Spread
Orig. Total
Runs
Closing
O/U
PeriodCurrent
Score
Seattle Mariners (65-56)
Texas Rangers (42-78)
52.2%
47.8%
+118
+100
-108
+100

-1½+145
+1½-162
10.42
o8-110
u9-110
o9-110
u9-110
9th
BOT
8
4
Chicago White Sox (71-50)
San Diego Padres (67-56)
46.4%
53.6%
+254
-290
+257
-280
+1½+125
-1½-135
+1½+120
-1½-135
8.92
o8-110
u8-110
o8-105
u8-105
6th
BOT
1
4
New York Yankees (69-52)
Oakland Athletics (68-53)
48.9%
51.1%
-172
+157
-168
+161
-1½-106
+1½-110
-1½-103
+1½-110
9.61
o8-110
u8-105
o8+100
u8-105
5th
TOP
6
0
Colorado Rockies (55-66)
Los Angeles Dodgers (75-46)
33.5%
66.5%
+250
-280
+245
-270
+1½+125
-1½-140
+1½+120
-1½-130
10.27
o9-105
u9-110
o9-105
u9-105
5th
TOP
3
3

Completed Games

TimeTeamsWinBest
ML
Best
Spread
Final
Runs
Sportsbook
Log Loss
DRatings
Log Loss
Chicago Cubs
Miami Marlins
47.0%
53.0%
-163
+149
-159
+160
-1½-105
+1½-112
-1½-105
+1½-105
2
7
-0.93344-0.95402-0.63454
Los Angeles Angels
Toronto Blue Jays
38.9%
61.1%
+140
-153
+146
-155
+1½-149
-1½+130
+1½-140
-1½+137
2
8
-0.52415-0.51208-0.49263
Colorado Rockies
New York Yankees
37.8%
62.2%
+215
-242
+225
-250
+1½+115
-1½-135
+1½+115
-1½-133
3
10
-0.37063-0.35820-0.47562
Arizona Diamondbacks
Boston Red Sox
35.4%
64.6%
+112
-122
+114
-122
+1½-175
-1½+155
+1½-175
-1½+157
7
5
-0.77245-0.77751-1.03784
Cincinnati Reds
Pittsburgh Pirates
57.6%
42.4%
-107
-103
-106
-104
-1½+150
+1½-165
-1½+155
+1½-165
3
4
-0.70249-0.69780-0.85715
Washington Nationals
Atlanta Braves
44.7%
55.3%
+169
-185
+170
-185
+1½-125
-1½+105
+1½-115
-1½+110
5
1
-1.01019-1.01255-0.80562
Tampa Bay Rays
Los Angeles Dodgers
37.8%
62.2%
+202
-225
+208
-220
+1½-109
-1½-110
+1½-105
-1½-105
9
8
-1.12840-1.13703-0.97294
New York Mets
San Diego Padres
45.2%
54.8%
+125
-136
+132
-139
+1½-170
-1½+155
+1½-165
-1½+150
7
1
-0.83144-0.85411-0.79458
Washington Nationals
Atlanta Braves
40.8%
59.2%
+146
-159
+154
-164
+1½-145
-1½+125
+1½-132
-1½+125
2
4
-0.50811-0.49089-0.52411
Philadelphia Phillies
Kansas City Royals
50.6%
49.4%
-109
-101
-106
-101
-1½+145
+1½-157
-1½+145
+1½-160
11
2
-0.67472-0.68136-0.68035
St. Louis Cardinals
Minnesota Twins
47.0%
53.0%
+124
-135
+130
-137
+1½-170
-1½+150
+1½-170
-1½+155
0
6
-0.57499-0.56084-0.63473
Detroit Tigers
Chicago White Sox
34.7%
65.3%
-219
+197
-215
+197
-1½-138
+1½+120
-1½-130
+1½+117
13
4
-0.39908-0.40099-1.05734
Texas Rangers
Cleveland Indians
41.7%
58.3%
+118
-128
+121
-128
+1½-180
-1½+165
+1½-185
-1½+170
5
13
-0.59724-0.59111-0.53996
Cincinnati Reds
Pittsburgh Pirates
57.6%
42.4%
-109
-101
-104
-103
-1½+150
+1½-170
-1½+154
+1½-170
10
2
-0.67472-0.69079-0.55229
Arizona Diamondbacks
Boston Red Sox
40.0%
60.0%
+121
-130
+120
-120
+1½-178
-1½+160
+1½-174
-1½+165
4
1
-0.81054-0.78845-0.91732
San Francisco Giants
Seattle Mariners
54.6%
45.4%
-103
-107
+101
-108

+1½-221
-1½+200
4
3
-0.70249-0.71474-0.60517
Load More Games

Season Prediction Results

 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks105-5 (0.500)0-0.65599 
Sportsbooks106-4 (0.600)0-0.65698 
DRatings108-2 (0.800)0-0.64779
0.00820
0.00919

Season Simulation

 Regular SeasonPostseason
#TeamWLMake PlayoffsWin DivisionWin Conf.Conf. Champ.World Series

Predictions Methodology

Here we use computer estimates from the Inference Index to predict future Major League baseball games. We use previous score and pitcher data to best attempt to estimate the results of each game. The predictions do not account for injuries, or any other factors that may cause the outcome to be swayed in one direction or another. There is a lot of randomness, particularly in baseball, so there will always be some error in the prediction.

Beginning in the 2014 season, we have begun including probable starting pitcher into the calculation. If there is a late change in the starting pitcher for a team and it is not reflected below then the projections will not be an accurate assessment on the game. The current projection system for Major League Baseball games is at Level 3, our highest level of analysis. The Predictor should be used for entertainment purposes only.