MLB Baseball Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Games for September 22, 2024

TimeTeamsPitchersWinBest
ML
Best
Spread
RunsTotal
Runs
Best
O/U

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

More on Bet Value
More Details
Minnesota Twins (54-67)
Boston Red Sox (69-54)
Pablo Lopez
Nick Pivetta
47.8%
52.2%
-123
+113
-125
+118
-1½+133
+1½-150
-1½+131
+1½-145
5.31
5.54
10.85
o7½+105
u7½-118
o7½+105
u7½-115
Pittsburgh Pirates (42-79)
Cincinnati Reds (65-57)
Paul Skenes
Hunter Greene
36.4%
63.6%
-118
+108
-117
+110
-1½+137
+1½-157
-1½+135
+1½-150
3.83
5.26
9.09
o7½-115
u7½+100
o8+105
u8-120
Detroit Tigers (58-64)
Baltimore Orioles (38-81)
Undecided Undecided
Albert Suarez
50.1%
49.9%
+117
-140
+125
-134
+1½-195
-1½+160
+1½-180
-1½+160
4.75
4.73
9.48
o8½-105
u8½-115
o8½+100
u8½-120
Atlanta Braves (65-56)
Miami Marlins (51-70)
Grant Holmes
Darren McCaughan
54.0%
46.0%
-185
+169
-185
+172
-1½-120
+1½+101
-1½-120
+1½+102
4.60
4.18
8.78
o8½-120
u8½+100
o8½-120
u8½+100
Toronto Blue Jays (63-56)
Tampa Bay Rays (74-47)
Undecided Undecided
Shane Baz
46.5%
53.5%




4.29
4.66
8.95


Arizona Diamondbacks (40-81)
Milwaukee Brewers (74-47)
Jordan Montgomery
Frankie Montas
32.1%
67.9%
+106
-116
+112
-119
+1½-195
-1½+170
+1½-187
-1½+175
3.37
5.22
8.59
o8½-115
u8½-105
o9+100
u9-120
Los Angeles Angels (61-61)
Houston Astros (70-50)
Griffin Canning
Spencer Arrighetti
40.6%
59.4%
+235
-267
+235
-265
+1½+113
-1½-130
+1½+112
-1½-125
4.03
5.01
9.04
o8½-110
u8½-110
o8½-110
u8½-110
San Francisco Giants (78-43)
Kansas City Royals (52-67)
Blake Snell
Seth Lugo
57.3%
42.7%
-107
-103
-107
+102
-1½+160
+1½-176
-1½+155
+1½-175
4.38
3.60
7.98
o7-115
u7-105
o7-115
u7½-120
Cleveland Indians (58-61)
St. Louis Cardinals (61-58)
Gavin Williams
Andre Pallante
45.7%
54.3%
-103
-107
+100
-110
+1½-212
-1½+182
+1½-210
-1½+188
4.22
4.68
8.90
o7½-110
u8-115
o7-120
u7½-110
Washington Nationals (52-68)
Chicago Cubs (54-69)
Jake Irvin
Shota Imanaga
47.7%
52.3%
+172
-188
+175
-190
+1½-126
-1½+106
+1½-130
-1½+112
4.92
5.17
10.09
o8-110
u8-110
o7½-110
u7½-110
Seattle Mariners (65-56)
Texas Rangers (42-78)
Bryan Woo
Andrew Heaney
50.4%
49.6%
-117
+107
-120
+110
-1½+145
+1½-160
-1½+140
+1½-156
5.21
5.17
10.38
o8+100
u8-115
o7½-110
u8-120
New York Yankees (69-52)
Oakland Athletics (68-53)
Luis Gil
Joey Estes
48.9%
51.1%
-173
+158
-170
+155
-1½-105
+1½-108
-1½-105
+1½-110
4.79
4.91
9.70
o8½-105
u8½-112
o8½-105
u8½-115
Colorado Rockies (55-66)
Los Angeles Dodgers (75-46)
Antonio Senzatela
Yoshinobu Yamamoto
34.4%
65.6%
+308
-355
+319
-340
+1½+145
-1½-165
+1½+150
-1½-150
4.23
5.85
10.08
o8½-110
u8½-108
o8½-105
u8½-105
Volatility Bet Value Active
Chicago White Sox (71-50)
San Diego Padres (67-56)
Sean Burke
Yu Darvish
42.6%
57.4%
+274
-315
+307
-320
+1½+130
-1½-135
+1½+136
-1½-140
3.77
4.54
8.31
o7½-115
u7½-105
o7½-115
u7½-105
Volatility Bet Value Active
Minnesota Twins (54-67)
Boston Red Sox (69-54)
Zebby Matthews
Kutter Crawford
41.5%
58.5%
-108
-102
-105
-103
+1½-212
-1½+182
-1½+155
+1½-173
5.00
5.88
10.88
o8-108
u8-112
o8-110
u8-110
Philadelphia Phillies (61-59)
New York Mets (60-60)
Zack Wheeler
Tylor Megill
47.2%
52.8%
-142
+130
-146
+137
-1½+125
+1½-145
-1½+115
+1½-133
4.36
4.66
9.02
o7+105
u7-115
o6½-120
u7-120
Games for Sep 21, 2024

Completed Games

TimeTeamsWinBest
ML
Best
Spread
Final
Runs
Sportsbook
Log Loss
DRatings
Log Loss
Seattle Mariners
Los Angeles Dodgers
34.4%
65.6%
+130
-142
+137
-144
+1½-165
-1½+150
+1½-165
-1½+155
0
3
-0.55443-0.53940-0.42109
Chicago White Sox
San Francisco Giants
46.2%
53.8%
+206
-230
+208
-230
+1½-104
-1½-110
+1½-110
-1½-105
3
5
-0.38450-0.38243-0.61982
Minnesota Twins
San Diego Padres
42.8%
57.2%
+156
-170
+158
-170
+1½-150
-1½+130
+1½-145
-1½+130
3
5
-0.48268-0.47970-0.55774
Tampa Bay Rays
Oakland Athletics
48.6%
51.4%
-114
+106
-115
+112
-1½+148
+1½-168
-1½+146
+1½-155
0
3
-0.74068-0.75796-0.66575
Los Angeles Angels
Kansas City Royals
51.8%
48.2%
+210
-233
+220
-230
+1½+111
-1½-125
+1½+115
-1½-123
3
5
-0.37914-0.37044-0.72888
Boston Red Sox
Houston Astros
46.9%
53.1%
+127
-138
+132
-134
+1½-170
-1½+150
+1½-165
-1½+150
4
5
-0.56518-0.56115-0.63311
Pittsburgh Pirates
Texas Rangers
45.1%
54.9%
+140
-153
+140
-150
+1½-150
-1½+130
+1½-148
-1½+135
3
4
-0.52415-0.52736-0.59882
Baltimore Orioles
New York Mets
31.4%
68.6%
+119
-129
+123
-129
+1½-180
-1½+160
+1½-170
-1½+155
3
4
-0.59365-0.58559-0.37650
Cincinnati Reds
Toronto Blue Jays
40.2%
59.8%
+131
-143
+142
-142
+1½-160
-1½+140
+1½-155
-1½+145
6
3
-0.85840-0.88378-0.91130
Arizona Diamondbacks
Miami Marlins
42.2%
57.8%
-204
+185
-195
+185
-1½-125
+1½+110
-1½-115
+1½+115
9
6
-0.42060-0.42580-0.86363
New York Yankees
Detroit Tigers
63.1%
36.9%
+111
-121
+114
-116
+1½-190
-1½+165
+1½-190
-1½+175
2
3
-0.62358-0.62601-0.99774
Atlanta Braves
Los Angeles Angels
44.8%
55.2%
-168
+154
-178
+166
-1½-109
+1½-110
-1½-115
+1½+105
3
1
-0.48737-0.46194-0.80234
San Francisco Giants
Oakland Athletics
48.6%
51.4%
-152
+139
-148
+139
-1½+115
+1½-130
-1½+115
+1½-130
4
2
-0.52690-0.53128-0.72060
San Diego Padres
Colorado Rockies
55.5%
44.5%
-188
+172
-190
+175
-1½-135
+1½+115
-1½-125
+1½+115
2
3
-1.02085-1.03022-0.81076
Minnesota Twins
Texas Rangers
52.9%
47.1%
-102
-108
+105
-105

-1½+160
+1½-175
5
6
-0.67930-0.66904-0.75328
Toronto Blue Jays
Chicago Cubs
55.4%
44.6%
+169
-185
+166
-180
+1½-137
-1½+120
+1½-143
-1½+130
1
0
-1.01019-0.99696-0.59115
Load More Games

Season Prediction Results

 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks147-7 (0.500)0-0.66955 
Sportsbooks149-5 (0.643)0-0.66437 
DRatings1410-4 (0.714)0-0.68284
-0.01329
-0.01847

Season Simulation

 Regular SeasonPostseason
#TeamWLMake PlayoffsWin DivisionWin Conf.Conf. Champ.World Series

Predictions Methodology

Here we use computer estimates from the Inference Index to predict future Major League baseball games. We use previous score and pitcher data to best attempt to estimate the results of each game. The predictions do not account for injuries, or any other factors that may cause the outcome to be swayed in one direction or another. There is a lot of randomness, particularly in baseball, so there will always be some error in the prediction.

Beginning in the 2014 season, we have begun including probable starting pitcher into the calculation. If there is a late change in the starting pitcher for a team and it is not reflected below then the projections will not be an accurate assessment on the game. The current projection system for Major League Baseball games is at Level 3, our highest level of analysis. The Predictor should be used for entertainment purposes only.