MLB Baseball Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Games for September 22, 2024

TimeTeamsPitchersWinBest
ML
Best
Spread
RunsTotal
Runs
Best
O/U

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

More on Bet Value
More Details
Minnesota Twins (54-67)
Boston Red Sox (69-54)
Pablo Lopez
Nick Pivetta
47.8%
52.2%
-135
+131
-140
+132
-1½+130
+1½-135
-1½+120
+1½-138
5.31
5.54
10.85
o7½+105
u7½-125
o7½+105
u7½-120
Volatility Bet Value Active
Pittsburgh Pirates (42-79)
Cincinnati Reds (65-57)
Paul Skenes
Hunter Greene
36.4%
63.6%
-116
+106
-115
+110
-1½+137
+1½-157
-1½+140
+1½-154
3.83
5.26
9.09
o7½-115
u7½+100
o8+100
u8-115
Detroit Tigers (58-64)
Baltimore Orioles (38-81)
Undecided Undecided
Albert Suarez
50.1%
49.9%
+117
-127
+122
-127
+1½-175
-1½+160
+1½-180
-1½+165
4.75
4.73
9.48
o8½-105
u8½-115
o8½+100
u8½-120
Atlanta Braves (65-56)
Miami Marlins (51-70)
Grant Holmes
Darren McCaughan
54.0%
46.0%
-186
+170
-185
+172
-1½-120
+1½+102
-1½-120
+1½+102
4.60
4.18
8.78
o8½-120
u8½+100
o8½-120
u8½+100
Toronto Blue Jays (63-56)
Tampa Bay Rays (74-47)
Ryan Burr
Shane Baz
46.5%
53.5%
+130
-142
+130
-139
+1½-166
-1½+146
+1½-165
-1½+155
4.29
4.66
8.95
o7½-115
u7½-105
o7½-115
u7½-105
Arizona Diamondbacks (40-81)
Milwaukee Brewers (74-47)
Jordan Montgomery
Frankie Montas
32.1%
67.9%
+110
-120
+110
-119
+1½-190
-1½+170
+1½-187
-1½+170
3.37
5.22
8.59
o8-114
u8½-105
o9+100
u8½-115
Volatility Bet Value Active
Los Angeles Angels (61-61)
Houston Astros (70-50)
Griffin Canning
Spencer Arrighetti
40.6%
59.4%
+231
-262
+235
-265
+1½+110
-1½-130
+1½+112
-1½-125
4.03
5.01
9.04
o8-105
u8½-110
o8-110
u8-110
Volatility Bet Value Active
San Francisco Giants (78-43)
Kansas City Royals (52-67)
Blake Snell
Seth Lugo
57.3%
42.7%
-108
-102
-108
+100
-1½+160
+1½-175
-1½+155
+1½-175
4.38
3.60
7.98
o7+102
u7-105
o6½-125
u7-115
Volatility Bet Value Active
Cleveland Indians (58-61)
St. Louis Cardinals (61-58)
Gavin Williams
Andre Pallante
45.7%
54.3%
+106
-113
+105
-110
+1½-205
-1½+175
+1½-200
-1½+188
4.21
4.65
8.86
o7½-103
u7½-110
o7½-105
u7½-110
Washington Nationals (52-68)
Chicago Cubs (54-69)
Jake Irvin
Shota Imanaga
47.7%
52.3%
+178
-195
+175
-190
+1½-123
-1½+103
+1½-130
-1½+112
4.92
5.17
10.09
o8-106
u8-114
o7½-115
u7½+100
Seattle Mariners (65-56)
Texas Rangers (42-78)
Bryan Woo
Andrew Heaney
50.4%
49.6%
-119
+117
-125
+118
-1½+145
+1½-147
-1½+130
+1½-147
5.21
5.17
10.38
o7½-115
u8-115
o7½-115
u7½+100
Volatility Bet Value Active
New York Yankees (69-52)
Oakland Athletics (68-53)
Luis Gil
Joey Estes
48.9%
51.1%
-170
+156
-170
+155
-1½-105
+1½-108
-1½-107
+1½-110
4.79
4.91
9.70
o9-102
u9-115
o8½-115
u8½+100
Overall Bet Value Active
Overall Bet Value Active
Colorado Rockies (55-66)
Los Angeles Dodgers (75-46)
Antonio Senzatela
Yoshinobu Yamamoto
34.4%
65.6%
+322
-370
+319
-370
+1½+150
-1½-165
+1½+150
-1½-170
4.23
5.85
10.08
o8½-110
u8½-108
o8½-110
u8½-110
Chicago White Sox (71-50)
San Diego Padres (67-56)
Sean Burke
Yu Darvish
42.6%
57.4%
+286
-330
+307
-340
+1½+133
-1½-135
+1½+131
-1½-150
3.77
4.54
8.31
o7½-115
u8-110
o8-110
u8-105
Volatility Bet Value Active
Minnesota Twins (54-67)
Boston Red Sox (69-54)
Zebby Matthews
Kutter Crawford
41.5%
58.5%
-115
+105
-107
+100
+1½-220
-1½+190
-1½+155
+1½-173
4.53
5.42
9.95
o8-108
u8-112
o8-110
u8-110
Philadelphia Phillies (61-59)
New York Mets (60-60)
Zack Wheeler
Tylor Megill
47.2%
52.8%
-142
+130
-137
+138
-1½+125
+1½-143
-1½+125
+1½-135
4.36
4.66
9.02
o7+105
u7-125
o7+105
u6½+100
Volatility Bet Value Active
Games for Sep 21, 2024

Completed Games

TimeTeamsWinBest
ML
Best
Spread
Final
Runs
Sportsbook
Log Loss
DRatings
Log Loss
Los Angeles Dodgers
St. Louis Cardinals
62.7%
37.3%
+106
-116
+101
-109


2
1
-0.74492-0.71701-0.46673
Cleveland Indians
Milwaukee Brewers
39.6%
60.4%
+110
-120
+114
-117
+1½-183
-1½+165
+1½-180
-1½+165
0
2
-0.62755-0.62416-0.50456
Chicago White Sox
Houston Astros
46.4%
53.6%
+288
-333
+310
-345
+1½+144
-1½-164
+1½+146
-1½-165
0
2
-0.28903-0.27353-0.62392
Arizona Diamondbacks
Tampa Bay Rays
35.0%
65.0%
-106
-104
-107
+104
-1½+155
+1½-172
-1½+153
+1½-160
7
8
-0.69780-0.72003-0.43048
Kansas City Royals
Cincinnati Reds
43.0%
57.0%
-101
-109
-103
-105
+1½-197
-1½+180
+1½-197
-1½+175
8
1
-0.71192-0.69788-0.84383
Seattle Mariners
Pittsburgh Pirates
54.0%
46.0%
-170
+156
-170
+159
-1½-105
+1½-112
-1½-105
+1½-110
10
3
-0.48268-0.47823-0.61602
Boston Red Sox
Baltimore Orioles
59.8%
40.2%
+112
-122
+111
-115
+1½-175
-1½+157
+1½-180
-1½+160
2
4
-0.61967-0.63448-0.91255
Washington Nationals
Philadelphia Phillies
43.0%
57.0%
+139
-152
+140
-148
+1½-143
-1½+125
+1½-143
-1½+125
6
4
-0.89265-0.88882-0.84364
Miami Marlins
New York Mets
44.8%
55.2%
+167
-183
+172
-180
+1½-120
-1½+106
+1½-125
-1½+110
3
2
-1.00302-1.01107-0.80214
Atlanta Braves
Los Angeles Angels
44.2%
55.8%
-226
+203
-220
+203
-1½-140
+1½+120
-1½-133
+1½+120
11
3
-0.38938-0.39207-0.81654
San Diego Padres
Colorado Rockies
53.3%
46.7%
-185
+169
-180
+176
-1½-130
+1½+112
-1½-125
+1½+115
8
3
-0.45279-0.44699-0.62833
Cleveland Indians
Milwaukee Brewers
43.8%
56.2%
+107
-117
+117
-117
+1½-198
-1½+180
+1½-190
-1½+176
1
2
-0.63974-0.61772-0.57638
Los Angeles Dodgers
St. Louis Cardinals
59.5%
40.5%
-111
+101
-111
+106
-1½+140
+1½-160
-1½+141
+1½-145
2
5
-0.72144-0.73414-0.90471
Chicago White Sox
Houston Astros
46.2%
53.8%
+285
-320
+300
-335
+1½+130
-1½-150
+1½+145
-1½-150
1
6
-0.29335-0.28113-0.62044
San Francisco Giants
Oakland Athletics
48.6%
51.4%
-126
+116
-117
+113
-1½+130
+1½-150
-1½+136
+1½-155
0
2
-0.79039-0.76475-0.66643
Minnesota Twins
Texas Rangers
52.9%
47.1%
+130
-142
+129
-132
+1½-170
-1½+150
+1½-170
-1½+160
5
2
-0.85426-0.83418-0.63643
Load More Games

Season Prediction Results

 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks147-7 (0.500)0-0.66955 
Sportsbooks149-5 (0.643)0-0.66437 
DRatings1410-4 (0.714)0-0.68284
-0.01329
-0.01847

Season Simulation

 Regular SeasonPostseason
#TeamWLMake PlayoffsWin DivisionWin Conf.Conf. Champ.World Series

Predictions Methodology

Here we use computer estimates from the Inference Index to predict future Major League baseball games. We use previous score and pitcher data to best attempt to estimate the results of each game. The predictions do not account for injuries, or any other factors that may cause the outcome to be swayed in one direction or another. There is a lot of randomness, particularly in baseball, so there will always be some error in the prediction.

Beginning in the 2014 season, we have begun including probable starting pitcher into the calculation. If there is a late change in the starting pitcher for a team and it is not reflected below then the projections will not be an accurate assessment on the game. The current projection system for Major League Baseball games is at Level 3, our highest level of analysis. The Predictor should be used for entertainment purposes only.