MLB Baseball Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Games for September 22, 2024

TimeTeamsPitchersWinBest
ML
Best
Spread
RunsTotal
Runs
Best
O/U

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

More on Bet Value
More Details
Philadelphia Phillies (61-59)
New York Mets (60-60)
Zack Wheeler
Tylor Megill
47.2%
52.8%
-132
+123
-132
+127
-1½+127
+1½-145
-1½+130
+1½-145
4.36
4.66
9.02
o7+105
u6½+105
o7+105
u6½+110
Games for Sep 21, 2024

Games In Progress

TimeTeamsOrig.
Win %
Closing
ML
Closing
Spread
Orig. Total
Runs
Closing
O/U
PeriodCurrent
Score
New York Yankees (69-52)
Oakland Athletics (68-53)
48.9%
51.1%
-164
+150
-170
+155
-1½-105
+1½-112
-1½-107
+1½-105
9.70
o9-101
u8½-115
o9+100
u9-115
8th
BOT
6
4
Colorado Rockies (55-66)
Los Angeles Dodgers (75-46)
34.4%
65.6%
+326
-375
+331
-380
+1½+165
-1½-165
+1½+160
-1½-175
10.08
o8½-110
u8½-108
o8½-110
u8½-110
7th
BOT
5
4
Chicago White Sox (71-50)
San Diego Padres (67-56)
42.6%
57.4%
+280
-323
+290
-325
+1½+130
-1½-135
+1½+131
-1½-150
8.31
o7½-115
u8-110
o8-110
u8-105
9th
TOP
2
4
Washington Nationals (52-68)
Chicago Cubs (54-69)
47.7%
52.3%
+183
-199
+185
-190
+1½-121
-1½+101
+1½-123
-1½+110
10.09
o8+100
u8-120
o7½-110
u7½+100
7th
TOP
0
5
Minnesota Twins (54-67)
Boston Red Sox (69-54)
41.5%
58.5%
-117
+107
-113
+105
-1½+135
+1½-155
-1½+150
+1½-164
9.95
o8-107
u8-113
o8-110
u8½+105
4th
BOT
0
0

Completed Games

TimeTeamsWinBest
ML
Best
Spread
Final
Runs
Sportsbook
Log Loss
DRatings
Log Loss
Miami Marlins
Philadelphia Phillies
42.0%
58.0%
+146
-159
+152
-158
+1½-140
-1½+121
+1½-140
-1½+125
5
9
-0.50811-0.49956-0.54445
Washington Nationals
Baltimore Orioles
54.1%
45.9%
+150
-164
+154
-165
+1½-134
-1½+120
+1½-135
-1½+120
1
4
-0.49707-0.48999-0.77871
Texas Rangers
Boston Red Sox
34.6%
65.4%
+119
-129
+120
-127
+1½-165
-1½+145
+1½-165
-1½+149
9
7
-0.80365-0.80236-1.06083
Pittsburgh Pirates
San Diego Padres
31.6%
68.4%
+120
-130
+125
-124
+1½-175
-1½+155
+1½-170
-1½+165
2
8
-0.59012-0.58938-0.37945
Colorado Rockies
Arizona Diamondbacks
53.4%
46.6%
+182
-200
+181
-190
+1½-113
-1½-105
+1½-115
-1½-103
4
11
-0.42652-0.43383-0.76327
Kansas City Royals
Minnesota Twins
43.5%
56.5%
-111
+101
-105
-102
-1½+148
+1½-168

4
1
-0.66563-0.68605-0.83312
Atlanta Braves
San Francisco Giants
39.4%
60.6%
+101
-111
+102
-107

+1½-200
-1½+181
4
3
-0.72144-0.71498-0.93105
Pittsburgh Pirates
San Diego Padres
35.3%
64.7%
+208
-233
+227
-230
+1½-107
-1½-110
+1½+100
-1½-111
0
3
-0.38119-0.36379-0.43487
Colorado Rockies
Arizona Diamondbacks
51.7%
48.3%
+174
-190
+178
-188
+1½-125
-1½+110
+1½-120
-1½+110
3
4
-0.44279-0.43892-0.72722
Toronto Blue Jays
Los Angeles Angels
54.9%
45.1%
-113
+103
-107
+102
-1½+145
+1½-160
-1½+141
+1½-155
6
1
-0.65676-0.67178-0.59966
New York Yankees
Chicago White Sox
47.7%
52.3%
-280
+246
-270
+250
-1½-170
+1½+155
-1½-170
+1½+160
4
1
-0.33091-0.33041-0.74064
Los Angeles Dodgers
Milwaukee Brewers
52.7%
47.3%
-108
-102
-108
+101
-1½+150
+1½-170
-1½+150
+1½-165
7
2
-0.67930-0.67201-0.64021
Kansas City Royals
Minnesota Twins
43.5%
56.5%
+106
-116
+110
-115
+1½-198
-1½+173
+1½-185
-1½+176
3
13
-0.64392-0.63673-0.57038
Oakland Athletics
New York Mets
52.1%
47.9%
+170
-186
+175
-190
+1½-125
-1½+105
+1½-120
-1½+110
9
4
-1.01377-1.03022-0.65201
Texas Rangers
Boston Red Sox
35.8%
64.2%
+126
-137
+129
-135
+1½-155
-1½+135
+1½-150
-1½+152
4
9
-0.56840-0.56539-0.44239
Houston Astros
Tampa Bay Rays
46.9%
53.1%
-120
+110
-122
+112
-1½+140
+1½-153
-1½+136
+1½-155
3
2
-0.62755-0.61967-0.75773
Load More Games

Season Prediction Results

 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks178-9 (0.471)0-0.70480 
Sportsbooks179-8 (0.529)0-0.69709 
DRatings1711-6 (0.647)0-0.70822
-0.00342
-0.01113

Season Simulation

 Regular SeasonPostseason
#TeamWLMake PlayoffsWin DivisionWin Conf.Conf. Champ.World Series

Predictions Methodology

Here we use computer estimates from the Inference Index to predict future Major League baseball games. We use previous score and pitcher data to best attempt to estimate the results of each game. The predictions do not account for injuries, or any other factors that may cause the outcome to be swayed in one direction or another. There is a lot of randomness, particularly in baseball, so there will always be some error in the prediction.

Beginning in the 2014 season, we have begun including probable starting pitcher into the calculation. If there is a late change in the starting pitcher for a team and it is not reflected below then the projections will not be an accurate assessment on the game. The current projection system for Major League Baseball games is at Level 3, our highest level of analysis. The Predictor should be used for entertainment purposes only.