MLB Baseball Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Games for September 23, 2024

TimeTeamsPitchersWinBest
ML
Best
Spread
RunsTotal
Runs
Best
O/U

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

More on Bet Value
More Details
Chicago Cubs (54-69)
Philadelphia Phillies (61-59)
Undecided Undecided
Undecided Undecided
42.1%
57.9%




4.14
4.98
9.12


Boston Red Sox (69-54)
Toronto Blue Jays (63-56)
Tanner Houck
Chris Bassitt
46.7%
53.3%
+103
-113
+104
-114
+1½-210
-1½+180
+1½-200
-1½+176
4.86
5.21
10.07
o7½-125
u7½+105
o7½-120
u7½+100
Seattle Mariners (65-56)
Houston Astros (70-50)
Bryce Miller
Hunter Brown
37.9%
62.1%
+131
-143
+135
-142
+1½-165
-1½+145
+1½-160
-1½+145
3.84
5.11
8.95
o7½-120
u7½+100
o7½-120
u7½+100
San Francisco Giants (78-43)
Arizona Diamondbacks (40-81)
Hayden Birdsong
Eduardo Rodriguez
60.5%
39.5%
+149
-163
+152
-164
+1½-145
-1½+125
+1½-136
-1½+125
4.60
3.50
8.10
o9-120
u9+100
o9-115
u9-105
Games for Sep 22, 2024
Games for Sep 24, 2024

Games In Progress

TimeTeamsOrig.
Win %
Closing
ML
Closing
Spread
Orig. Total
Runs
Closing
O/U
PeriodCurrent
Score
Minnesota Twins (54-67)
Boston Red Sox (69-54)
41.5%
58.5%
-117
+107
-113
+105
-1½+135
+1½-155
-1½+150
+1½-164
9.95
o8-107
u8-113
o8-110
u8½+105
FINAL
FINAL
3
9
Philadelphia Phillies (61-59)
New York Mets (60-60)
47.2%
52.8%
-133
+123
-133
+127
-1½+125
+1½-145
-1½+130
+1½-145
9.02
o7+105
u6½+107
o7+105
u6½+110
4th
TOP
1
1

Completed Games

TimeTeamsWinBest
ML
Best
Spread
Final
Runs
Sportsbook
Log Loss
DRatings
Log Loss
Kansas City Royals
Minnesota Twins
43.5%
56.5%
+106
-116
+110
-115
+1½-198
-1½+173
+1½-185
-1½+176
3
13
-0.64392-0.63673-0.57038
Oakland Athletics
New York Mets
52.1%
47.9%
+170
-186
+175
-190
+1½-125
-1½+105
+1½-120
-1½+110
9
4
-1.01377-1.03022-0.65201
Texas Rangers
Boston Red Sox
35.8%
64.2%
+126
-137
+129
-135
+1½-155
-1½+135
+1½-150
-1½+152
4
9
-0.56840-0.56539-0.44239
Houston Astros
Tampa Bay Rays
46.9%
53.1%
-120
+110
-122
+112
-1½+140
+1½-153
-1½+136
+1½-155
3
2
-0.62755-0.61967-0.75773
Chicago Cubs
Cleveland Indians
45.9%
54.1%
+132
-144
+137
-145
+1½-165
-1½+145
+1½-155
-1½+140
1
2
-0.54834-0.53820-0.61496
Seattle Mariners
Detroit Tigers
52.2%
47.8%
+107
-117
+110
-114
+1½-198
-1½+180
+1½-195
-1½+180
1
15
-0.63974-0.63864-0.73842
Miami Marlins
Philadelphia Phillies
42.0%
58.0%
+178
-195
+181
-195
+1½-120
-1½+100
+1½-120
-1½+102
5
0
-1.04299-1.04994-0.86788
St. Louis Cardinals
Cincinnati Reds
44.0%
56.0%
+115
-125
+118
-127
+1½-175
-1½+155
+1½-175
-1½+160
1
4
-0.60825-0.59878-0.57951
Washington Nationals
Baltimore Orioles
59.7%
40.3%
+170
-186
+176
-190
+1½-125
-1½+105
+1½-120
-1½+105
9
3
-1.01377-1.03257-0.51646
Atlanta Braves
San Francisco Giants
39.4%
60.6%
-107
-103
-104
-104


1
0
-0.68389-0.69315-0.93105
Pittsburgh Pirates
San Diego Padres
32.8%
67.2%
+178
-195
+181
-198
+1½-118
-1½+100
+1½-120
-1½+105
1
2
-0.43448-0.42892-0.39681
Colorado Rockies
Arizona Diamondbacks
51.7%
48.3%
+243
-277
+250
-275
+1½+125
-1½-145
+1½+136
-1½-140
4
5
-0.33419-0.32902-0.72722
Toronto Blue Jays
Los Angeles Angels
52.0%
48.0%
-101
-109
-101
-104

+1½-200
-1½+185
4
2
-0.71192-0.70039-0.65398
New York Yankees
Chicago White Sox
47.7%
52.3%
-330
+286
-335
+293
-1½-205
+1½+180
-1½-210
+1½+184
2
12
-1.37682-1.39292-0.64781
Los Angeles Dodgers
Milwaukee Brewers
60.9%
39.1%
-113
+103
-108
+107
-1½+145
+1½-165
-1½+150
+1½-165
5
2
-0.65676-0.65772-0.49605
Kansas City Royals
Minnesota Twins
45.9%
54.1%
+145
-158
+148
-155
+1½-150
-1½+135
+1½-150
-1½+135
3
8
-0.51073-0.50886-0.61421
Load More Games

Season Prediction Results

 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks1711-6 (0.647)0-0.63749 
Sportsbooks1710-7 (0.588)0-0.63408 
DRatings1711-6 (0.647)0-0.67800
-0.04051
-0.04392

Season Simulation

 Regular SeasonPostseason
#TeamWLMake PlayoffsWin DivisionWin Conf.Conf. Champ.World Series

Predictions Methodology

Here we use computer estimates from the Inference Index to predict future Major League baseball games. We use previous score and pitcher data to best attempt to estimate the results of each game. The predictions do not account for injuries, or any other factors that may cause the outcome to be swayed in one direction or another. There is a lot of randomness, particularly in baseball, so there will always be some error in the prediction.

Beginning in the 2014 season, we have begun including probable starting pitcher into the calculation. If there is a late change in the starting pitcher for a team and it is not reflected below then the projections will not be an accurate assessment on the game. The current projection system for Major League Baseball games is at Level 3, our highest level of analysis. The Predictor should be used for entertainment purposes only.