MLB Baseball Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Games for September 23, 2024

TimeTeamsPitchersWinBest
ML
Best
Spread
RunsTotal
Runs
Best
O/U

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

More on Bet Value
More Details
Chicago Cubs (54-69)
Philadelphia Phillies (61-59)
Undecided Undecided
Undecided Undecided
42.1%
57.9%




4.14
4.98
9.12


Boston Red Sox (69-54)
Toronto Blue Jays (63-56)
Tanner Houck
Chris Bassitt
46.7%
53.3%
+103
-113
+104
-114
+1½-215
-1½+185
+1½-200
-1½+176
4.86
5.21
10.07
o7½-125
u7½+105
o7½-120
u7½+100
Seattle Mariners (65-56)
Houston Astros (70-50)
Bryce Miller
Hunter Brown
37.9%
62.1%
+130
-142
+135
-142
+1½-165
-1½+145
+1½-160
-1½+145
3.84
5.11
8.95
o7½-120
u7½+100
o7½-120
u7½+100
San Francisco Giants (78-43)
Arizona Diamondbacks (40-81)
Hayden Birdsong
Eduardo Rodriguez
60.5%
39.5%
+151
-165
+152
-164
+1½-145
-1½+125
+1½-136
-1½+125
4.60
3.50
8.10
o9-120
u9+100
o9-115
u9-105
Games for Sep 22, 2024
Games for Sep 24, 2024

Completed Games

TimeTeamsWinBest
ML
Best
Spread
Final
Runs
Sportsbook
Log Loss
DRatings
Log Loss
Los Angeles Dodgers
Milwaukee Brewers
60.9%
39.1%
-113
+103
-108
+107
-1½+145
+1½-165
-1½+150
+1½-165
5
2
-0.65676-0.65772-0.49605
Kansas City Royals
Minnesota Twins
45.9%
54.1%
+145
-158
+148
-155
+1½-150
-1½+135
+1½-150
-1½+135
3
8
-0.51073-0.50886-0.61421
Texas Rangers
Boston Red Sox
35.8%
64.2%
+110
-120
+115
-118
+1½-177
-1½+157
+1½-173
-1½+160
4
5
-0.62755-0.62019-0.44239
Houston Astros
Tampa Bay Rays
48.1%
51.9%
-121
+111
-121
+114
-1½+145
+1½-165
-1½+145
+1½-160
6
1
-0.62358-0.61706-0.73251
Chicago Cubs
Cleveland Indians
45.9%
54.1%
-117
+107
-117
+108
-1½+145
+1½-160
-1½+142
+1½-160
8
9
-0.74957-0.75211-0.61496
St. Louis Cardinals
Cincinnati Reds
44.1%
55.9%
-144
+132
-140
+132
-1½+115
+1½-128
-1½+115
+1½-130
1
6
-0.86254-0.85583-0.58146
New York Mets
Seattle Mariners
48.4%
51.6%
+106
-116
+109
-118
+1½-190
-1½+165
+1½-180
-1½+173
1
12
-0.64392-0.63337-0.66126
Pittsburgh Pirates
Los Angeles Dodgers
27.6%
72.4%
+218
-245
+240
-239
+1½+110
-1½-125
+1½+115
-1½-123
5
6
-0.36661-0.34868-0.32321
Philadelphia Phillies
Arizona Diamondbacks
54.9%
45.1%
-125
+115
-124
+123
-1½+131
+1½-150
-1½+130
+1½-140
5
12
-0.78592-0.80401-0.79682
Detroit Tigers
San Francisco Giants
35.6%
64.4%
+161
-176
+162
-175
+1½-134
-1½+115
+1½-135
-1½+120
5
4
-0.97995-0.98104-1.03344
Atlanta Braves
Colorado Rockies
48.6%
51.4%
-166
+152
-164
+152
-1½-117
+1½+100
-1½-114
+1½-104
8
9
-0.94492-0.94212-0.66516
Cleveland Indians
Minnesota Twins
36.2%
63.8%
+102
-112
+108
-109
+1½-193
-1½+175
+1½-190
-1½+185
5
3
-0.72619-0.73466-1.01514
Cincinnati Reds
Milwaukee Brewers
43.4%
56.6%
+114
-124
+115
-123
+1½-190
-1½+165
+1½-185
-1½+169
4
3
-0.78145-0.78202-0.83526
Baltimore Orioles
Tampa Bay Rays
32.7%
67.3%
+104
-114
+108
-112
+1½-195
-1½+180

1
2
-0.65243-0.64712-0.39552
San Diego Padres
Miami Marlins
53.1%
46.9%
-188
+172
-180
+176
-1½-119
+1½+105
-1½-120
+1½+105
6
7
-1.02085-1.02040-0.75790
Oakland Athletics
Toronto Blue Jays
45.4%
54.6%
+139
-150
+136
-145
+1½-154
-1½+140
+1½-155
-1½+140
8
4
-0.88953-0.87412-0.79043
Load More Games

Season Prediction Results

 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks169-7 (0.562)0-0.64571 
Sportsbooks168-8 (0.500)0-0.64310 
DRatings1612-4 (0.750)0-0.64183
0.00388
0.00126

Season Simulation

 Regular SeasonPostseason
#TeamWLMake PlayoffsWin DivisionWin Conf.Conf. Champ.World Series

Predictions Methodology

Here we use computer estimates from the Inference Index to predict future Major League baseball games. We use previous score and pitcher data to best attempt to estimate the results of each game. The predictions do not account for injuries, or any other factors that may cause the outcome to be swayed in one direction or another. There is a lot of randomness, particularly in baseball, so there will always be some error in the prediction.

Beginning in the 2014 season, we have begun including probable starting pitcher into the calculation. If there is a late change in the starting pitcher for a team and it is not reflected below then the projections will not be an accurate assessment on the game. The current projection system for Major League Baseball games is at Level 3, our highest level of analysis. The Predictor should be used for entertainment purposes only.