MLB Baseball Predictions

Updated

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Completed Games

TimeTeamsWinBest
ML
Best
Spread
Final
Runs
Sportsbook
Log Loss
DRatings
Log Loss
New York Yankees
Tampa Bay Rays
47.1%
52.9%
-104
-106
-102
-105
+1½-197
-1½+175
+1½-200
-1½+180
6
4
-0.69780-0.70029-0.75302
Chicago White Sox
Atlanta Braves
48.1%
51.9%
+152
-167
+160
-173
+1½-130
-1½+115
+1½-115
-1½+115
0
1
-0.49130-0.47433-0.65635
New York Mets
Washington Nationals
50.2%
49.8%
-160
+145
-160
+150
-1½-105
+1½-113
-1½-103
+1½-105
4
5
-0.91937-0.93156-0.69802
St. Louis Cardinals
Miami Marlins
46.4%
53.6%
-101
-109
+105
-111
+1½-210
-1½+180
+1½-200
-1½+180
2
6
-0.67472-0.65610-0.62403
Cleveland Indians
Arizona Diamondbacks
52.6%
47.4%
-101
-109
+100
-107
+1½-192
-1½+175
+1½-190
-1½+180
2
3
-0.67472-0.67666-0.74608
Houston Astros
Detroit Tigers
59.6%
40.4%
-115
+104
-110
+107
-1½+142
+1½-162
-1½+150
+1½-162
2
7
-0.73771-0.73443-0.90560
Seattle Mariners
Philadelphia Phillies
44.8%
55.2%
+121
-129
+127
-137
+1½-170
-1½+151
+1½-165
-1½+155
2
11
-0.58960-0.56650-0.59510
Toronto Blue Jays
Pittsburgh Pirates
63.5%
36.5%
-147
+136
-147
+146
-1½+102
+1½-120
-1½+108
+1½-115
1
2
-0.87736-0.90182-1.00802
Cleveland Indians
Arizona Diamondbacks
52.6%
47.4%
+101
-111
+107
-114
+1½-205
-1½+177
+1½-190
-1½+185
5
6
-0.66563-0.64546-0.74608
San Francisco Giants
San Diego Padres
47.0%
53.0%
+164
-182
+177
-180
+1½-120
-1½+105
+1½-120
-1½+110
1
5
-0.46180-0.44569-0.63535
Cincinnati Reds
Los Angeles Angels
48.2%
51.8%
-128
+116
-130
+120
-1½+120
+1½-136
-1½+125
+1½-127
6
4
-0.60139-0.59012-0.73033
New York Yankees
Tampa Bay Rays
47.1%
52.9%
-131
+119
-125
+121
-1½+130
+1½-145
-1½+135
+1½-150
13
3
-0.59066-0.59580-0.75302
Los Angeles Dodgers
Colorado Rockies
60.8%
39.2%
-225
+201
-247
+220
-1½-174
+1½+160
-1½-175
+1½+162
11
4
-0.39196-0.36396-0.49768
Milwaukee Brewers
Chicago Cubs
58.4%
41.6%
-125
+113
-120
+117
-1½+140
+1½-160
-1½+145
+1½-155
1
4
-0.78086-0.78100-0.87745
Oakland Athletics
Minnesota Twins
52.1%
47.9%
+134
-148
+132
-144
+1½-157
-1½+140
+1½-160
-1½+145
6
3
-0.87397-0.86254-0.65202
Texas Rangers
Kansas City Royals
45.6%
54.4%
-106
-104
-108
-102


2
5
-0.69780-0.70719-0.60846
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Season Prediction Results

 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks00-0 (0.000)0 
Sportsbooks00-0 (0.000)0 
DRatings00-0 (0.000)0

Season Simulation

 Regular SeasonPostseason
#TeamWLMake PlayoffsWin DivisionWin Conf.Conf. Champ.World Series

Predictions Methodology

Here we use computer estimates from the Inference Index to predict future Major League baseball games. We use previous score and pitcher data to best attempt to estimate the results of each game. The predictions do not account for injuries, or any other factors that may cause the outcome to be swayed in one direction or another. There is a lot of randomness, particularly in baseball, so there will always be some error in the prediction.

Beginning in the 2014 season, we have begun including probable starting pitcher into the calculation. If there is a late change in the starting pitcher for a team and it is not reflected below then the projections will not be an accurate assessment on the game. The current projection system for Major League Baseball games is at Level 3, our highest level of analysis. The Predictor should be used for entertainment purposes only.