MLB Baseball Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Games for May 5, 2026

TimeTeamsPitchersWinBest
ML
Best
Spread
RunsTotal
Runs
Best
O/U

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

More on Bet Value
More Details
Boston Red Sox (69-54)
Detroit Tigers (58-64)
Jovani Moran
Framber Valdez
56.9%
43.1%
+145
-160
+158
-150
+1½-145
-1½+130
+1½-130
-1½+135
5.16
4.44
9.60
o8-120
u8+100
o8-115
u8+100
Volatility Bet Value Active
Toronto Blue Jays (63-56)
Tampa Bay Rays (74-47)
Kevin Gausman
Drew Rasmussen
46.5%
53.5%
+112
-123
+115
-123
+1½-190
-1½+170
+1½-190
-1½+170
4.29
4.66
8.95
o7-119
u7+100
o7½+105
u7½-120
Baltimore Orioles (38-81)
Miami Marlins (51-70)
Chris Bassitt
Sandy Alcantara
38.6%
61.4%
+118
-130
+122
-130
+1½-184
-1½+161
+1½-180
-1½+160
4.05
5.24
9.29
o8½-110
u8½-110
o8½-110
u8½-110
Oakland Athletics (68-53)
Philadelphia Phillies (61-59)
Luis Severino
Cristopher Sanchez
49.2%
50.8%
+167
-185
+165
-180
+1½-125
-1½+110
+1½-130
-1½+110
5.95
6.03
11.98
o9-105
u9-110
o9-105
u8½+100
Minnesota Twins (54-67)
Washington Nationals (52-68)
Taj Bradley
Cade Cavalli
47.8%
52.2%
-105
-105
+100
-107

+1½-195
-1½+180
5.33
5.56
10.89
o9-110
u9-107
o9-105
u9-110
Texas Rangers (42-78)
New York Yankees (69-52)
Jacob deGrom
Elmer Rodriguez
42.0%
58.0%
+113
-125
+115
-124
+1½-185
-1½+163

4.83
5.67
10.50
o8½-105
u8½-110
o8-110
u8½-110
Volatility Bet Value Active
Cincinnati Reds (65-57)
Chicago Cubs (54-69)
Andrew Abbott
Jameson Taillon
51.6%
48.4%
+146
-161
+150
-157
+1½-160
-1½+140
+1½-152
-1½+140
4.63
4.46
9.09
o8-105
u8-108
o8-115
u8+100
Cleveland Indians (58-61)
Kansas City Royals (52-67)
Gavin Williams
Stephen Kolek
49.3%
50.7%
-113
+103
-115
+107
-1½+145
+1½-165
-1½+145
+1½-156
4.42
4.50
8.92
o7½-105
u7½-115
o7½-110
u8-125
Milwaukee Brewers (74-47)
St. Louis Cardinals (61-58)
Brandon Sproat
Andre Pallante
53.0%
47.0%
-105
-105
-102
-107

+1½-210
-1½+190
4.42
4.10
8.52
o7½-115
u8-120
o8+100
u8-110
Los Angeles Dodgers (75-46)
Houston Astros (70-50)
Shohei Ohtani
Peter Lambert
50.6%
49.4%
-229
+205
-225
+200
-1½-140
+1½+125
-1½-135
+1½+120
4.34
4.28
8.62
o8½-105
u8½-110
o8½+100
u8½-115
New York Mets (60-60)
Colorado Rockies (55-66)
Freddy Peralta
Michael Lorenzen
46.8%
53.2%
-155
+140
-155
+145
-1½-105
+1½-115
-1½-105
+1½-115
5.20
5.54
10.74
o9½-110
u9½-110
o9½-110
u10-110
Chicago White Sox (71-50)
Los Angeles Angels (61-61)
Erick Fedde
Sam Aldegheri
51.6%
48.4%
-101
-109
+102
-112
+1½-200
-1½+175

5.13
4.97
10.10
o9-105
u9-115
o9-110
u9-110
Pittsburgh Pirates (42-79)
Arizona Diamondbacks (40-81)
Bubba Chandler
Eduardo Rodriguez
45.6%
54.4%
+111
-122
+115
-118
+1½-190
-1½+165
+1½-190
-1½+170
4.15
4.61
8.76
o9-105
u9-112
o9-110
u9-110
Volatility Bet Value Active
Atlanta Braves (65-56)
Seattle Mariners (65-56)
Bryce Elder
George Kirby
52.7%
47.3%
+116
-128
+118
-127
+1½-180
-1½+157
+1½-170
-1½+165
4.81
4.52
9.33
o8-102
u8-115
o8-105
u8-115
Volatility Bet Value Active
San Diego Padres (67-56)
San Francisco Giants (78-43)
Walker Buehler
Logan Webb
48.3%
51.7%
+115
-127
+117
-125
+1½-185
-1½+165
+1½-185
-1½+170
4.14
4.32
8.46
o7½+105
u7½-125
o7½+100
u7½-115
Games for May 4, 2026

Completed Games

TimeTeamsWinBest
ML
Best
Spread
Final
Runs
Sportsbook
Log Loss
DRatings
Log Loss
Boston Red Sox
Toronto Blue Jays
48.8%
51.2%
+135
-149
+137
-150
+1½-155
-1½+135
+1½-155
-1½+140
4
1
-0.87806-0.88460-0.71838
Chicago White Sox
New York Yankees
46.0%
54.0%
+199
-222
+210
-215
+1½+110
-1½-125
+1½+110
-1½-120
2
3
-0.39549-0.38705-0.61533
Miami Marlins
Philadelphia Phillies
42.0%
58.0%
+180
-200
+183
-200
+1½-120
-1½+100
+1½-115
-1½+100
6
5
-1.05317-1.06010-0.86788
Detroit Tigers
Cleveland Indians
54.2%
45.8%
-148
+134
-152
+140
-1½+123
+1½-140
-1½+120
+1½-135
2
5
-0.87397-0.89512-0.78012
Pittsburgh Pirates
Cincinnati Reds
34.2%
65.8%
+152
-168
+157
-168
+1½-140
-1½+127
+1½-135
-1½+130
4
2
-0.94768-0.95975-1.07403
St. Louis Cardinals
San Francisco Giants
40.0%
60.0%
+138
-150
+135
-145
+1½-165
-1½+145
+1½-160
-1½+145
6
5
-0.88707-0.87165-0.91619
Milwaukee Brewers
San Diego Padres
42.1%
57.9%
-107
-103
-105
+101


4
5
-0.70249-0.70779-0.54583
Washington Nationals
Atlanta Braves
40.8%
59.2%
+231
-260
+235
-265
+1½+112
-1½-120
+1½+110
-1½-120
5
11
-0.34946-0.34441-0.52411
Boston Red Sox
Tampa Bay Rays
45.1%
54.9%
-125
+113
-125
+115
-1½+135
+1½-147
-1½+135
+1½-155
3
7
-0.78086-0.78592-0.59968
Seattle Mariners
Houston Astros
38.1%
61.9%
-141
+128
-135
+130
-1½+118
+1½-130
-1½+115
+1½-130
7
3
-0.55942-0.56352-0.96543
San Francisco Giants
Los Angeles Dodgers
41.7%
58.3%
+190
-212
+190
-200
+1½-105
-1½-113
+1½-105
-1½-110
3
1
-1.08874-1.07614-0.87462
Philadelphia Phillies
Arizona Diamondbacks
56.4%
43.6%
-123
+112
-121
+116
-1½+125
+1½-145
-1½+125
+1½-145
2
9
-0.77442-0.78054-0.82988
Los Angeles Angels
Colorado Rockies
50.6%
49.4%
-101
-109
+100
-108
+1½-192
-1½+170
+1½-185
-1½+170
1
3
-0.67472-0.67446-0.70490
Chicago Cubs
Cincinnati Reds
42.1%
57.9%
+108
-119
+105
-112
+1½-193
-1½+170
+1½-200
-1½+175
0
1
-0.63380-0.65406-0.54688
Miami Marlins
Texas Rangers
49.4%
50.6%
+110
-121
+111
-114
+1½-205
-1½+177
+1½-200
-1½+185
4
2
-0.76535-0.75332-0.70437
Milwaukee Brewers
St. Louis Cardinals
53.0%
47.0%
-132
+120
-128
+120
-1½+125
+1½-144
-1½+125
+1½-140
1
5
-0.81171-0.80428-0.75572
Load More Games

Season Prediction Results

 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks128-4 (0.667)0-0.61980 
Sportsbooks127-5 (0.583)0-0.63101 
DRatings129-3 (0.750)0-0.64696
-0.02716
-0.01595

Season Simulation

 Regular SeasonPostseason
#TeamWLMake PlayoffsWin DivisionWin Conf.Conf. Champ.World Series

Predictions Methodology

Here we use computer estimates from the Inference Index to predict future Major League baseball games. We use previous score and pitcher data to best attempt to estimate the results of each game. The predictions do not account for injuries, or any other factors that may cause the outcome to be swayed in one direction or another. There is a lot of randomness, particularly in baseball, so there will always be some error in the prediction.

Beginning in the 2014 season, we have begun including probable starting pitcher into the calculation. If there is a late change in the starting pitcher for a team and it is not reflected below then the projections will not be an accurate assessment on the game. The current projection system for Major League Baseball games is at Level 3, our highest level of analysis. The Predictor should be used for entertainment purposes only.