MLB Baseball Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Games for September 23, 2024

TimeTeamsPitchersWinBest
ML
Best
Spread
RunsTotal
Runs
Best
O/U

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

More on Bet Value
More Details
Chicago Cubs (54-69)
Philadelphia Phillies (61-59)
Nate Pearson
Aaron Nola
36.0%
64.0%
+169
-185
+169
-180
+1½-122
-1½+102
+1½-125
-1½+110
3.47
4.95
8.42
o8-117
u8-103
o8-110
u8-105
Boston Red Sox (69-54)
Toronto Blue Jays (63-56)
Tanner Houck
Chris Bassitt
46.7%
53.3%
-101
-109
+102
-110
+1½-205
-1½+175
+1½-200
-1½+180
4.86
5.21
10.07
o8-120
u8+100
o8-120
u8+100
Seattle Mariners (65-56)
Houston Astros (70-50)
Bryce Miller
Hunter Brown
38.2%
61.8%
+116
-126
+120
-125
+1½-180
-1½+160
+1½-180
-1½+165
3.85
5.10
8.95
o7½-118
u7½-102
o7½-115
u7½+100
San Francisco Giants (78-43)
Arizona Diamondbacks (40-81)
Hayden Birdsong
Eduardo Rodriguez
60.5%
39.5%
+159
-174
+159
-170
+1½-130
-1½+110
+1½-124
-1½+110
4.60
3.50
8.10
o9+100
u9-120
o9+100
u9-120
Overall Bet Value Active
Games for Sep 22, 2024

Completed Games

TimeTeamsWinBest
ML
Best
Spread
Final
Runs
Sportsbook
Log Loss
DRatings
Log Loss
Colorado Rockies
Los Angeles Angels
43.4%
56.6%
+107
-117
+115
-116
+1½-195
-1½+172
+1½-180
-1½+170
5
4
-0.74957-0.76761-0.83374
St. Louis Cardinals
Chicago Cubs
48.8%
51.2%
-104
-104
+100
-108
+1½-210
-1½+180
+1½-200
-1½+192
4
5
-0.69315-0.67446-0.66978
Miami Marlins
Atlanta Braves
45.3%
54.7%
+183
-201
+181
-200
+1½-107
-1½-110
+1½-105
-1½-103
2
4
-0.42472-0.42776-0.60279
Kansas City Royals
Detroit Tigers
48.0%
52.0%
-156
+143
-152
+147
-1½-105
+1½-113
-1½+102
+1½-115
7
1
-0.51601-0.51355-0.73464
Baltimore Orioles
Cleveland Indians
34.4%
65.6%
-101
-109
+103
-110
+1½-210
-1½+180
-1½+160
+1½-175
3
10
-0.67472-0.66291-0.42127
Oakland Athletics
San Francisco Giants
46.7%
53.3%
+175
-191
+181
-187
+1½-125
-1½+105
+1½-125
-1½+115
0
1
-0.44085-0.43578-0.62852
Colorado Rockies
Los Angeles Angels
43.1%
56.9%
+122
-133
+125
-128
+1½-170
-1½+150
+1½-165
-1½+150
2
1
-0.81855-0.81676-0.84197
Los Angeles Dodgers
San Diego Padres
58.7%
41.3%
+124
-135
+125
-130
+1½-185
-1½+165
+1½-185
-1½+170
1
8
-0.57499-0.58016-0.88535
Pittsburgh Pirates
Houston Astros
31.5%
68.5%
+205
-229
+206
-225
+1½+103
-1½-120
+1½+105
-1½-120
4
5
-0.38597-0.38665-0.37842
Chicago Cubs
Cincinnati Reds
44.8%
55.2%
+137
-149
+138
-148
+1½-150
-1½+133
+1½-149
-1½+131
13
4
-0.88303-0.88390-0.80379
Seattle Mariners
Boston Red Sox
40.9%
59.1%
-113
+103
-106
-101
-1½+140
+1½-160
-1½+142
+1½-160
2
3
-0.73091-0.70508-0.52557
Washington Nationals
Arizona Diamondbacks
47.5%
52.5%
+161
-176
+160
-170
+1½-129
-1½+115
+1½-135
-1½+120
4
5
-0.47053-0.47678-0.64445
Texas Rangers
St. Louis Cardinals
42.4%
57.6%
-115
+105
-112
+105
-1½+140
+1½-160
-1½+140
+1½-159
1
10
-0.74028-0.73382-0.55210
Kansas City Royals
Chicago White Sox
39.5%
60.5%
-240
+214
-228
+210
-1½-145
+1½+135
-1½-144
+1½+126
10
3
-0.37237-0.38122-0.92776
Atlanta Braves
Milwaukee Brewers
44.3%
55.7%
-116
+106
-113
+110
-1½+149
+1½-169
-1½+155
+1½-164
6
2
-0.64392-0.64059-0.81414
Minnesota Twins
New York Mets
44.3%
55.7%
-120
+110
-118
+112
-1½+140
+1½-159
-1½+140
+1½-159
8
3
-0.62755-0.62672-0.81310
Load More Games

Season Prediction Results

 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks31-2 (0.333)0-0.66550 
Sportsbooks31-2 (0.333)0-0.66532 
DRatings33-0 (1.000)0-0.60807
0.05744
0.05725

Season Simulation

 Regular SeasonPostseason
#TeamWLMake PlayoffsWin DivisionWin Conf.Conf. Champ.World Series

Predictions Methodology

Here we use computer estimates from the Inference Index to predict future Major League baseball games. We use previous score and pitcher data to best attempt to estimate the results of each game. The predictions do not account for injuries, or any other factors that may cause the outcome to be swayed in one direction or another. There is a lot of randomness, particularly in baseball, so there will always be some error in the prediction.

Beginning in the 2014 season, we have begun including probable starting pitcher into the calculation. If there is a late change in the starting pitcher for a team and it is not reflected below then the projections will not be an accurate assessment on the game. The current projection system for Major League Baseball games is at Level 3, our highest level of analysis. The Predictor should be used for entertainment purposes only.