MLB Baseball Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Games for May 5, 2026

TimeTeamsPitchersWinBest
ML
Best
Spread
RunsTotal
Runs
Best
O/U

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

More on Bet Value
More Details
Boston Red Sox (69-54)
Detroit Tigers (58-64)
Jovani Moran
Framber Valdez
56.9%
43.1%
+137
-151
+158
-152
+1½-154
-1½+135
+1½-130
-1½+135
5.17
4.45
9.62
o8½+100
u8+100
o8-120
u8½-110
Volatility Bet Value Active
Toronto Blue Jays (63-56)
Tampa Bay Rays (74-47)
Kevin Gausman
Drew Rasmussen
46.5%
53.5%
+110
-121
+113
-122
+1½-200
-1½+175
+1½-190
-1½+170
4.29
4.66
8.95
o7-103
u7-115
o7-110
u7+100
Baltimore Orioles (38-81)
Miami Marlins (51-70)
Chris Bassitt
Sandy Alcantara
38.6%
61.4%
+127
-140
+125
-130
+1½-168
-1½+148
+1½-175
-1½+160
4.05
5.24
9.29
o8½-105
u8½-110
o8½-110
u8½-110
Oakland Athletics (68-53)
Philadelphia Phillies (61-59)
Luis Severino
Cristopher Sanchez
49.2%
50.8%
+169
-188
+165
-180
+1½-124
-1½+110
+1½-130
-1½+110
5.95
6.03
11.98
o9-110
u9-107
o9-105
u8½+100
Minnesota Twins (54-67)
Washington Nationals (52-68)
Taj Bradley
Cade Cavalli
47.8%
52.2%
-112
+102
-109
+102

+1½-200
-1½+190
5.33
5.56
10.89
o9½-105
u9½-113
o9-105
u9½-115
Overall Bet Value Active
Volatility Bet Value Active
Texas Rangers (42-78)
New York Yankees (69-52)
Jacob deGrom
Elmer Rodriguez
42.0%
58.0%
+105
-116
+105
-112
+1½-195
-1½+170

4.89
5.74
10.63
o9-104
u9-115
o8-110
u9-115
Cincinnati Reds (65-57)
Chicago Cubs (54-69)
Andrew Abbott
Jameson Taillon
51.6%
48.4%
+143
-158
+150
-159
+1½-150
-1½+132
+1½-155
-1½+140
4.63
4.46
9.09
o8-110
u8-110
o8-115
u8+100
Cleveland Indians (58-61)
Kansas City Royals (52-67)
Gavin Williams
Stephen Kolek
49.3%
50.7%
-118
+107
-115
+107
-1½+142
+1½-162
-1½+145
+1½-156
4.46
4.54
9.00
o7½-105
u7½-115
o7½-110
u8-125
Milwaukee Brewers (74-47)
St. Louis Cardinals (61-58)
Brandon Sproat
Andre Pallante
53.0%
47.0%
-104
-106
-102
-105
+1½-222
-1½+190
+1½-210
-1½+190
4.42
4.11
8.53
o8+105
u7½-104
o8+100
u8-110
Los Angeles Dodgers (75-46)
Houston Astros (70-50)
Shohei Ohtani
Peter Lambert
50.6%
49.4%
-221
+200
-220
+196
-1½-137
+1½+120
-1½-135
+1½+118
4.34
4.28
8.62
o8½-105
u8½-110
o8½+100
u8½-115
PostponedNew York Mets (60-60)
Colorado Rockies (55-66)
Freddy Peralta
Michael Lorenzen
46.8%
53.2%
-163
+137
-155
+145
-1½-105
+1½-115
-1½-105
+1½-115
5.20
5.54
10.74
o9½+100
u9½-120
o9½-110
u10-110
Chicago White Sox (71-50)
Los Angeles Angels (61-61)
Erick Fedde
Sam Aldegheri
51.6%
48.4%
-102
-108
+100
-108
+1½-202
-1½+175

5.13
4.97
10.10
o9-105
u9-110
o9-110
u9-105
Pittsburgh Pirates (42-79)
Arizona Diamondbacks (40-81)
Bubba Chandler
Eduardo Rodriguez
45.6%
54.4%
+121
-133
+122
-130
+1½-170
-1½+155
+1½-165
-1½+162
4.15
4.61
8.76
o9-108
u9-110
o9-110
u9-110
Volatility Bet Value Active
Atlanta Braves (65-56)
Seattle Mariners (65-56)
Bryce Elder
George Kirby
52.7%
47.3%
+113
-125
+118
-122
+1½-185
-1½+161
+1½-170
-1½+165
4.81
4.52
9.33
o7½-117
u7½+100
o8+100
u8-115
Volatility Bet Value Active
San Diego Padres (67-56)
San Francisco Giants (78-43)
Walker Buehler
Logan Webb
48.3%
51.7%
+115
-127
+117
-125
+1½-187
-1½+170
+1½-185
-1½+170
4.14
4.32
8.46
o7½-105
u7½-114
o7½+100
u7½-115
Games for May 4, 2026

Completed Games

TimeTeamsWinBest
ML
Best
Spread
Final
Runs
Sportsbook
Log Loss
DRatings
Log Loss
Philadelphia Phillies
Los Angeles Dodgers
37.7%
62.3%
+131
-144
+134
-140
+1½-170
-1½+153
+1½-160
-1½+160
0
5
-0.55016-0.54962-0.47268
Miami Marlins
Colorado Rockies
46.7%
53.3%
-143
+130
-144
+135
-1½+100
+1½-120
-1½+100
+1½-115
8
4
-0.55321-0.54294-0.76209
Texas Rangers
Houston Astros
32.0%
68.0%
-144
+131
-135
+125
-1½+125
+1½-138
-1½+125
+1½-140
2
5
-0.86005-0.82968-0.38493
Los Angeles Angels
Milwaukee Brewers
38.7%
61.3%
+207
-232
+215
-235
+1½+105
-1½-120
+1½+105
-1½-115
2
9
-0.38262-0.37333-0.48968
New York Yankees
Minnesota Twins
54.2%
45.8%
-155
+140
-150
+146
-1½-105
+1½-115
-1½+100
+1½-115
10
5
-0.52206-0.51730-0.61310
Seattle Mariners
Kansas City Royals
49.5%
50.5%
+114
-126
+112
-120
+1½-197
-1½+172
+1½-185
-1½+170
5
7
-0.60877-0.62315-0.68349
Toronto Blue Jays
Tampa Bay Rays
46.5%
53.5%
-127
+115
-125
+115
-1½+132
+1½-150
-1½+132
+1½-150
1
2
-0.78975-0.78592-0.62511
San Diego Padres
New York Mets
51.3%
48.7%
+113
-124
+117
-126
+1½-200
-1½+177
+1½-190
-1½+170
7
4
-0.77892-0.79290-0.66826
Oakland Athletics
Boston Red Sox
43.4%
56.6%
+147
-162
+145
-156
+1½-135
-1½+118
+1½-140
-1½+125
4
5
-0.50367-0.51269-0.57003
Cleveland Indians
Detroit Tigers
35.2%
64.8%
+119
-131
+128
-137
+1½-175
-1½+153
+1½-165
-1½+150
4
0
-0.80735-0.84070-1.04435
Atlanta Braves
Washington Nationals
52.9%
47.1%
-141
+128
-137
+130
-1½+115
+1½-131
-1½+115
+1½-130
9
4
-0.55942-0.56084-0.63609
San Francisco Giants
Arizona Diamondbacks
60.5%
39.5%
+103
-113
+104
-110
+1½-207
-1½+178

5
1
-0.73091-0.72685-0.50277
Baltimore Orioles
Chicago White Sox
33.2%
66.8%
-121
+110
-116
+107
-1½+140
+1½-159
-1½+141
+1½-160
3
1
-0.62581-0.64162-1.10301
Cincinnati Reds
St. Louis Cardinals
49.6%
50.4%
-116
+105
-117
+108
-1½+142
+1½-162
-1½+140
+1½-155
6
2
-0.64623-0.63747-0.70197
Chicago Cubs
Pittsburgh Pirates
55.3%
44.7%
-142
+129
-132
+130
-1½+120
+1½-137
-1½+120
+1½-140
8
4
-0.55629-0.56768-0.59325
Philadelphia Phillies
Los Angeles Dodgers
37.7%
62.3%
+118
-130
+120
-125
+1½-185
-1½+163
+1½-190
-1½+170
9
6
-0.80298-0.79851-0.97639
Load More Games

Season Prediction Results

 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks128-4 (0.667)0-0.61980 
Sportsbooks127-5 (0.583)0-0.63101 
DRatings129-3 (0.750)0-0.64696
-0.02716
-0.01595

Season Simulation

 Regular SeasonPostseason
#TeamWLMake PlayoffsWin DivisionWin Conf.Conf. Champ.World Series

Predictions Methodology

Here we use computer estimates from the Inference Index to predict future Major League baseball games. We use previous score and pitcher data to best attempt to estimate the results of each game. The predictions do not account for injuries, or any other factors that may cause the outcome to be swayed in one direction or another. There is a lot of randomness, particularly in baseball, so there will always be some error in the prediction.

Beginning in the 2014 season, we have begun including probable starting pitcher into the calculation. If there is a late change in the starting pitcher for a team and it is not reflected below then the projections will not be an accurate assessment on the game. The current projection system for Major League Baseball games is at Level 3, our highest level of analysis. The Predictor should be used for entertainment purposes only.