MLB Baseball Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Games for September 23, 2024

TimeTeamsPitchersWinBest
ML
Best
Spread
RunsTotal
Runs
Best
O/U

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

More on Bet Value
More Details
San Francisco Giants (78-43)
Arizona Diamondbacks (40-81)
Hayden Birdsong
Eduardo Rodriguez
60.5%
39.5%
+166
-182
+170
-174
+1½-126
-1½+106
+1½-120
-1½+105
4.60
3.50
8.10
o9+104
u9-124
o9+110
u9-120
Overall Bet Value Active
Games for Sep 22, 2024

Games In Progress

TimeTeamsOrig.
Win %
Closing
ML
Closing
Spread
Orig. Total
Runs
Closing
O/U
PeriodCurrent
Score
Chicago Cubs (54-69)
Philadelphia Phillies (61-59)
36.0%
64.0%
+178
-195
+185
-195
+1½-125
-1½+105
+1½-110
-1½+102
8.42
o8+101
u8-121
o8+105
u8-115
7th
TOP
0
6
Boston Red Sox (69-54)
Toronto Blue Jays (63-56)
46.7%
53.3%
+105
-115
+110
-110
+1½-198
-1½+173
+1½-192
-1½+175
10.07
o8-105
u8-115
o8-105
u8+100
5th
TOP
3
0
Seattle Mariners (65-56)
Houston Astros (70-50)
38.2%
61.8%
+113
-123
+116
-122
+1½-180
-1½+160
+1½-180
-1½+165
8.95
o7½-110
u7½-110
o7½-115
u7½+100
1st
BOT
0
0

Completed Games

TimeTeamsWinBest
ML
Best
Spread
Final
Runs
Sportsbook
Log Loss
DRatings
Log Loss
Toronto Blue Jays
Baltimore Orioles
57.7%
42.3%
+182
-200
+185
-198
+1½-108
-1½-110
+1½-110
-1½-105
2
6
-0.42652-0.42402-0.85963
Cleveland Indians
Detroit Tigers
50.4%
49.6%
-128
+118
-124
+125
-1½+130
+1½-145
-1½+133
+1½-145
5
0
-0.59724-0.58938-0.68508
Washington Nationals
Arizona Diamondbacks
54.3%
45.7%
+148
-162
+150
-155
+1½-140
-1½+125
+1½-140
-1½+126
8
9
-0.50206-0.50566-0.78274
Toronto Blue Jays
Baltimore Orioles
61.2%
38.8%
+126
-137
+129
-136
+1½-158
-1½+138
+1½-154
-1½+140
8
4
-0.83570-0.84142-0.49140
Pittsburgh Pirates
Houston Astros
31.3%
68.7%
-122
+112
-121
+117
-1½+135
+1½-155
-1½+142
+1½-150
5
3
-0.61967-0.61068-1.16012
Kansas City Royals
Chicago White Sox
37.2%
62.8%
-169
+155
-163
+159
-1½-110
+1½-107
-1½-109
+1½-105
8
5
-0.48503-0.48426-0.98822
Atlanta Braves
Milwaukee Brewers
40.1%
59.9%
+105
-115
+108
-115
+1½-197
-1½+172
+1½-190
-1½+175
3
8
-0.64814-0.64124-0.51256
Texas Rangers
St. Louis Cardinals
40.6%
59.4%
-116
+106
-107
+104
-1½+141
+1½-160
-1½+150
+1½-159
6
3
-0.64392-0.66697-0.90044
Minnesota Twins
New York Mets
44.3%
55.7%
-104
-106
+103
-109
+1½-205
-1½+175
+1½-200
-1½+180
2
15
-0.68852-0.66503-0.58605
Seattle Mariners
Boston Red Sox
47.1%
52.9%
+108
-118
+111
-120
+1½-190
-1½+170
+1½-185
-1½+170
7
14
-0.63563-0.62534-0.63739
Chicago Cubs
Cincinnati Reds
42.1%
57.9%
-110
+100
-109
-101
-1½+140
+1½-160
+1½-212
-1½+190
1
7
-0.71668-0.71192-0.54688
New York Yankees
Philadelphia Phillies
51.3%
48.7%
+118
-128
+120
-127
+1½-173
-1½+155
+1½-170
-1½+152
14
4
-0.79924-0.80236-0.66801
Cleveland Indians
Detroit Tigers
47.2%
52.8%
-154
+141
-154
+144
-1½+110
+1½-127
-1½+110
+1½-124
8
4
-0.52140-0.51639-0.74997
Toronto Blue Jays
Baltimore Orioles
61.2%
38.8%
+145
-158
+148
-156
+1½-140
-1½+122
+1½-145
-1½+130
5
11
-0.51073-0.50785-0.94616
New York Yankees
Boston Red Sox
47.6%
52.4%
-106
-104
-107
+102

+1½-200
-1½+180
8
2
-0.68852-0.67178-0.74282
Pittsburgh Pirates
Arizona Diamondbacks
44.3%
55.7%
+103
-113
+102
-110
+1½-205
-1½+180
+1½-200
-1½+180
6
5
-0.73091-0.72177-0.81389
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Season Prediction Results

 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks00-0 (0.000)0 
Sportsbooks00-0 (0.000)0 
DRatings00-0 (0.000)0

Season Simulation

 Regular SeasonPostseason
#TeamWLMake PlayoffsWin DivisionWin Conf.Conf. Champ.World Series

Predictions Methodology

Here we use computer estimates from the Inference Index to predict future Major League baseball games. We use previous score and pitcher data to best attempt to estimate the results of each game. The predictions do not account for injuries, or any other factors that may cause the outcome to be swayed in one direction or another. There is a lot of randomness, particularly in baseball, so there will always be some error in the prediction.

Beginning in the 2014 season, we have begun including probable starting pitcher into the calculation. If there is a late change in the starting pitcher for a team and it is not reflected below then the projections will not be an accurate assessment on the game. The current projection system for Major League Baseball games is at Level 3, our highest level of analysis. The Predictor should be used for entertainment purposes only.